Samuel Fraiberger

Manuel Tonneau, Dhaval Adjodah, João Palotti et al. · mit, oxford

Detecting disclosures of individuals' employment status on social media can provide valuable information to match job seekers with suitable vacancies, offer social protection, or measure labor market flows. However, identifying such personal disclosures is a challenging task due to their rarity in a sea of social media content and the variety of linguistic forms used to describe them. Here, we examine three Active Learning (AL) strategies in real-world settings of extreme class imbalance, and identify five types of disclosures about individuals' employment status (e.g. job loss) in three languages using BERT-based classification models. Our findings show that, even under extreme imbalance settings, a small number of AL iterations is sufficient to obtain large and significant gains in precision, recall, and diversity of results compared to a supervised baseline with the same number of labels. We also find that no AL strategy consistently outperforms the rest. Qualitative analysis suggests that AL helps focus the attention mechanism of BERT on core terms and adjust the boundaries of semantic expansion, highlighting the importance of interpretable models to provide greater control and visibility into this dynamic learning process.

Giuliano Martinelli, Piriyakorn Piriyatamwong, Abelardo Carlos Martinez Lorenzo et al.

Randomized controlled trials are a cornerstone of medicine and the social sciences as they enable reliable estimates of causal effects. However, they are costly and time-consuming to conduct, motivating interest in predicting causal effects from existing experimental evidence. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance on knowledge-intensive tasks, raising the question of whether these models can be used for forecasting causal effect sizes. To investigate this, we introduce Query2Effect, a new large-scale benchmark consisting of more than 72,000 natural language questions aligned with experiment descriptions, created to simulate realistic information-seeking scenarios by varying query specificity along dimensions of implicitness, abstraction, and ambiguity. We then propose a two-step framework that first generates a synthetic structured representation of a query before predicting effect size using a supervised encoder model. Experiments show that finetuning plays a crucial role in improving prediction performance, with absolute error reducing by -27% up to -71% compared to prompted out-of-the-box LLMs, and that our two-step framework is beneficial for out-of-domain generalization, highlighting the benefits of separating semantic interpretation from numerical effect estimation.

Manuel Tonneau, Diyi Liu, Samuel Fraiberger et al. · oxford

Perceptions of hate can vary greatly across cultural contexts. Hate speech (HS) datasets, however, have traditionally been developed by language. This hides potential cultural biases, as one language may be spoken in different countries home to different cultures. In this work, we evaluate cultural bias in HS datasets by leveraging two interrelated cultural proxies: language and geography. We conduct a systematic survey of HS datasets in eight languages and confirm past findings on their English-language bias, but also show that this bias has been steadily decreasing in the past few years. For three geographically-widespread languages -- English, Arabic and Spanish -- we then leverage geographical metadata from tweets to approximate geo-cultural contexts by pairing language and country information. We find that HS datasets for these languages exhibit a strong geo-cultural bias, largely overrepresenting a handful of countries (e.g., US and UK for English) relative to their prominence in both the broader social media population and the general population speaking these languages. Based on these findings, we formulate recommendations for the creation of future HS datasets.