Agnese Seminara

Daniele Lagomarsino-Oneto, Giacomo Meanti, Nicolò Pagliana et al.

The ability to predict wind is crucial for both energy production and weather forecasting. Mechanistic models that form the basis of traditional forecasting perform poorly near the ground. In this paper, we take an alternative data-driven approach based on supervised learning. We analyze a massive dataset of wind measured from anemometers located at 10 m height in 32 locations in two central and north west regions of Italy (Abruzzo and Liguria). We train supervised learning algorithms using the past history of wind to predict its value at a future time (horizon). Using data from a single location and time horizon we compare systematically several algorithms where we vary the input/output variables, the memory of the input and the linear vs non-linear learning model. We then compare performance of the best algorithms across all locations and forecasting horizons. We find that the optimal design as well as its performance vary with the location. We demonstrate that the presence of a reproducible diurnal cycle provides a rationale to understand this variation. We conclude with a systematic comparison with state of the art algorithms and show that, when the model is accurately designed, shallow algorithms are competitive with more complex deep architectures.

Marco Rando, Robin A. Heinonen, Yujia Qi et al.

Finding an odor source in a turbulent flow requires effectively leveraging the history of olfactory observations into a robust navigation strategy. In this work, we use tabular Q-learning to train an olfactory search agent with a minimal memory of past observations: only a running clock since the last whiff. This agent learns an interpretable strategy to recover the plume which combines well-known behaviors observed in insects: surging, casting, and a return downwind. While achieving good performance on data from direct numerical simulations of turbulence, the agent is limited by an inability to adapt its strategy to the local intermittency level; we show that providing more flexibility improves robustness.

Marco Rando, Martin James, Alessandro Verri et al.

We consider the problem of olfactory searches in a turbulent environment. We focus on agents that respond solely to odor stimuli, with no access to spatial perception nor prior information about the odor. We ask whether navigation to a target can be learned robustly within a sequential decision making framework. We develop a reinforcement learning algorithm using a small set of interpretable olfactory states and train it with realistic turbulent odor cues. By introducing a temporal memory, we demonstrate that two salient features of odor traces, discretized in few olfactory states, are sufficient to learn navigation in a realistic odor plume. Performance is dictated by the sparse nature of turbulent odors. An optimal memory exists which ignores blanks within the plume and activates a recovery strategy outside the plume. We obtain the best performance by letting agents learn their recovery strategy and show that it is mostly casting cross wind, similar to behavior observed in flying insects. The optimal strategy is robust to substantial changes in the odor plumes, suggesting minor parameter tuning may be sufficient to adapt to different environments.