Victor Kurbatsky

Nikita Tomin, Victor Kurbatsky, Michael Negnevitsky

Year by year control of normal and emergency conditions of up-to-date power systems becomes an increasingly complicated problem. With the increasing complexity the existing control system of power system conditions which includes operative actions of the dispatcher and work of special automatic devices proves to be insufficiently effective more and more frequently, which raises risks of dangerous and emergency conditions in power systems. The paper is aimed at compensating for the shortcomings of man (a cognitive barrier, exposure to stresses and so on) and automatic devices by combining their strong points, i.e. the dispatcher's intelligence and the speed of automatic devices by virtue of development of the intelligent system "Artificial dispatcher" on the basis of deep machine learning technology. For realization of the system "Artificial dispatcher" in addition to deep learning it is planned to attract the game theory approaches to formalize work of the up-to-date power system as a game problem. The "gain" for "Artificial dispatcher" will consist in bringing in a power system in the normal steady-state or post-emergency conditions by means of the required control actions.

Victor Kurbatsky, Nikita Tomin, Vadim Spiryaev et al.

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.