Avishek Ghosh

Yash, Nikhil Karamchandani, Avishek Ghosh

This work investigates the problem of best arm identification for multi-agent multi-armed bandits. We consider $N$ agents grouped into $M$ clusters, where each cluster solves a stochastic bandit problem. The mapping between agents and bandits is a priori unknown. Each bandit is associated with $K$ arms, and the goal is to identify the best arm for each agent under a $δ$-probably correct ($δ$-PC) framework, while minimizing sample complexity and communication overhead. We propose two novel algorithms: Clustering then Best Arm Identification (Cl-BAI) and Best Arm Identification then Clustering (BAI-Cl). Cl-BAI uses a two-phase approach that first clusters agents based on the bandit problems they are learning, followed by identifying the best arm for each cluster. BAI-Cl reverses the sequence by identifying the best arms first and then clustering agents accordingly. Both algorithms leverage the successive elimination framework to ensure computational efficiency and high accuracy. We establish $δ$-PC guarantees for both methods, derive bounds on their sample complexity, and provide a lower bound for this problem class. Moreover, when $M$ is small (a constant), we show that the sample complexity of a variant of BAI-Cl is minimax optimal in an order-wise sense. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets (MovieLens, Yelp) demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed algorithms in terms of sample and communication efficiency, particularly in settings where $M \ll N$.

Lokesh Nagalapatti, Pranava Singhal, Avishek Ghosh et al.

Treatment effect estimation involves assessing the impact of different treatments on individual outcomes. Current methods estimate Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using observational datasets where covariates are collected before treatment assignment and outcomes are observed afterward, under assumptions like positivity and unconfoundedness. In this paper, we address a scenario where both covariates and outcomes are gathered after treatment. We show that post-treatment covariates render CATE unidentifiable, and recovering CATE requires learning treatment-independent causal representations. Prior work shows that such representations can be learned through contrastive learning if counterfactual supervision is available in observational data. However, since counterfactuals are rare, other works have explored using simulators that offer synthetic counterfactual supervision. Our goal in this paper is to systematically analyze the role of simulators in estimating CATE. We analyze the CATE error of several baselines and highlight their limitations. We then establish a generalization bound that characterizes the CATE error from jointly training on real and simulated distributions, as a function of the real-simulator mismatch. Finally, we introduce SimPONet, a novel method whose loss function is inspired from our generalization bound. We further show how SimPONet adjusts the simulator's influence on the learning objective based on the simulator's relevance to the CATE task. We experiment with various DGPs, by systematically varying the real-simulator distribution gap to evaluate SimPONet's efficacy against state-of-the-art CATE baselines.

Lokesh Nagalapatti, Pranava Singhal, Avishek Ghosh et al.

Given a dataset of individuals each described by a covariate vector, a treatment, and an observed outcome on the treatment, the goal of the individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation task is to predict outcome changes resulting from a change in treatment. A fundamental challenge is that in the observational data, a covariate's outcome is observed only under one treatment, whereas we need to infer the difference in outcomes under two different treatments. Several existing approaches address this issue through training with inferred pseudo-outcomes, but their success relies on the quality of these pseudo-outcomes. We propose PairNet, a novel ITE estimation training strategy that minimizes losses over pairs of examples based on their factual observed outcomes. Theoretical analysis for binary treatments reveals that PairNet is a consistent estimator of ITE risk, and achieves smaller generalization error than baseline models. Empirical comparison with thirteen existing methods across eight benchmarks, covering both discrete and continuous treatments, shows that PairNet achieves significantly lower ITE error compared to the baselines. Also, it is model-agnostic and easy to implement.