Amnon Balanov

Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory, Wasim Huleihel

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational data do not support them. This issue is especially critical in scientific fields involving highly noisy observations, such as cryo-electron microscopy. This study investigates confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models. We consider the following experiment: A team of scientists assumes they are analyzing data drawn from a Gaussian mixture model with known signals (hypotheses) as centroids. However, in reality, the observations consist entirely of noise without any informative structure. The researchers use a single iteration of the K-means or expectation-maximization algorithms, two popular algorithms to estimate the centroids. Despite the observations being pure noise, we show that these algorithms yield biased estimates that resemble the initial hypotheses, contradicting the unbiased expectation that averaging these noise observations would converge to zero. Namely, the algorithms generate estimates that mirror the postulated model, although the hypotheses (the presumed centroids of the Gaussian mixture) are not evident in the observations. Specifically, among other results, we prove a positive correlation between the estimates produced by the algorithms and the corresponding hypotheses. We also derive explicit closed-form expressions of the estimates for a finite and infinite number of hypotheses. This study underscores the risks of confirmation bias in low signal-to-noise environments, provides insights into potential pitfalls in scientific methodologies, and highlights the importance of prudent data interpretation.

Kweku Abraham, Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory et al.

Motivated by single-particle cryo-electron microscopy, we study the sample complexity of the multi-target detection (MTD) problem, in which an unknown signal appears multiple times at unknown locations within a long, noisy observation. We propose a patching scheme that reduces MTD to a non-i.i.d. multi-reference alignment (MRA) model. In the one-dimensional setting, the latent group elements form a Markov chain, and we show that the convergence rate of any estimator matches that of the corresponding i.i.d. MRA model, up to a logarithmic factor in the number of patches. Moreover, for estimators based on empirical averaging, such as the method of moments, the convergence rates are identical in both settings. We further establish an analogous result in two dimensions, where the latent structure arises from an exponentially mixing random field generated by a hard-core placement model. As a consequence, if the signal in the corresponding i.i.d. MRA model is determined by moments up to order $n_{\min}$, then in the low-SNR regime the number of patches required to estimate the signal in the MTD model scales as $σ^{2n_{\min}}$, where $σ^2$ denotes the noise variance.