Joan Walker

Qingyi Wang, Shenhao Wang, Yunhan Zheng et al.

Classical demand modeling analyzes travel behavior using only low-dimensional numeric data (i.e. sociodemographics and travel attributes) but not high-dimensional urban imagery. However, travel behavior depends on the factors represented by both numeric data and urban imagery, thus necessitating a synergetic framework to combine them. This study creates a theoretical framework of deep hybrid models with a crossing structure consisting of a mixing operator and a behavioral predictor, thus integrating the numeric and imagery data into a latent space. Empirically, this framework is applied to analyze travel mode choice using the MyDailyTravel Survey from Chicago as the numeric inputs and the satellite images as the imagery inputs. We found that deep hybrid models outperform both the traditional demand models and the recent deep learning in predicting the aggregate and disaggregate travel behavior with our supervision-as-mixing design. The latent space in deep hybrid models can be interpreted, because it reveals meaningful spatial and social patterns. The deep hybrid models can also generate new urban images that do not exist in reality and interpret them with economic theory, such as computing substitution patterns and social welfare changes. Overall, the deep hybrid models demonstrate the complementarity between the low-dimensional numeric and high-dimensional imagery data and between the traditional demand modeling and recent deep learning. It generalizes the latent classes and variables in classical hybrid demand models to a latent space, and leverages the computational power of deep learning for imagery while retaining the economic interpretability on the microeconomics foundation.

Siqi Feng, Rui Yao, Stephane Hess et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) frequently present behaviorally irregular patterns, significantly limiting their practical potentials and theoretical validity in travel behavior modeling. This study proposes strong and weak behavioral regularities as novel metrics to evaluate the monotonicity of individual demand functions (known as the "law of demand"), and further designs a constrained optimization framework with six gradient regularizers to enhance DNNs' behavioral regularity. The proposed framework is applied to travel survey data from Chicago and London to examine the trade-off between predictive power and behavioral regularity for large vs. small sample scenarios and in-domain vs. out-of-domain generalizations. The results demonstrate that, unlike models with strong behavioral foundations such as the multinomial logit, the benchmark DNNs cannot guarantee behavioral regularity. However, gradient regularization (GR) increases DNNs' behavioral regularity by around 6 percentage points (pp) while retaining their relatively high predictive power. In the small sample scenario, GR is more effective than in the large sample scenario, simultaneously improving behavioral regularity by about 20 pp and log-likelihood by around 1.7%. Comparing with the in-domain generalization of DNNs, GR works more effectively in out-of-domain generalization: it drastically improves the behavioral regularity of poorly performing benchmark DNNs by around 65 pp, indicating the criticality of behavioral regularization for enhancing model transferability and application in forecasting. Moreover, the proposed framework is applicable to other NN-based choice models such as TasteNets. Future studies could use behavioral regularity as a metric along with log-likelihood in evaluating travel demand models, and investigate other methods to further enhance behavioral regularity when adopting complex machine learning models.