Nigel Henry Collier

Nigel H. Collier, Fangyu Liu, Ehsan Shareghi · deepmind

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) harness linguistic associations in vast natural language data for practical applications. However, their ability to understand the physical world using only language data remains a question. After reviewing existing protocols, we explore this question using a novel and tightly controlled reasoning test (ART) and compare human norms against versions of GPT-3. Our findings highlight the categories of common-sense relations models that could learn directly from data and areas of weakness. GPT-3 offers evidence for verbal reasoning on a par with human subjects for several relations including Synonymy, Antonymy, and Default inheritance, Without reinforcement learning from human judgements, it appears GPT-3 performs at the lower end of the reference interval for Has-part and Contained-in. Weaknesses were observed also in affordance characteristics through Necessary-quality, Order-of-size and Order-of-intensity. Combining LLMs with symbolic world grounding is a promising direction to address associative learning.

Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang, Xiaochen Zhu et al.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.