Anshuman Pradhan, Kyra H. Adams, Venkat Chandrasekaran et al.
Modeling groundwater levels continuously across California's Central Valley (CV) hydrological system is challenging due to low-quality well data which is sparsely and noisily sampled across time and space. The lack of consistent well data makes it difficult to evaluate the impact of 2017 and 2019 wet years on CV groundwater following a severe drought during 2012-2015. A novel machine learning method is formulated for modeling groundwater levels by learning from a 3D lithological texture model of the CV aquifer. The proposed formulation performs multivariate regression by combining Gaussian processes (GP) and deep neural networks (DNN). The hierarchical modeling approach constitutes training the DNN to learn a lithologically informed latent space where non-parametric regression with GP is performed. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP-DNN regression for modeling non-stationary features in the well data with fast and reliable uncertainty quantification, as validated to be statistically consistent with the empirical data distribution from 90 blind wells across CV. We show how the model predictions may be used to supplement hydrological understanding of aquifer responses in basins with irregular well data. Our results indicate that on average the 2017 and 2019 wet years in California were largely ineffective in replenishing the groundwater loss caused during previous drought years.
Many machine learning models are defined for inputs of different sizes, such as point clouds containing different numbers of points, sequences of tokens of different lengths, and graphs on different numbers of nodes. Such models are trained on finitely-many examples of necessarily limited sizes. How well do these models generalize from inputs of small size to larger inputs of size not seen during training? Furthermore, evaluating such models on large inputs is often expensive. How can we sketch large inputs to obtain smaller ones on which the model takes similar values? At the heart of both questions is the need to compare inputs of different sizes and to approximate large inputs by small ones. We present a unified approach to address these questions by using random sampling maps to compare inputs of different sizes. The sampling maps we consider are generalizations of sampling with replacement, random binning, and species sampling. We characterize the application domains in which each type of sampling is appropriate in terms of the symmetries and relations between problem instances of different sizes in the domain. Our framework yields explicit generalization and sketching rates for function classes continuous with respect to a chosen notion of sampling, encompassing large families of functions defined on sequences, graphs, and tensors of different sizes. Specific examples include moment polynomials on measures, homomorphism densities and numbers of graphs, permutation-invariant transformers, and graph neural networks.
Convex regression is the problem of fitting a convex function to a data set consisting of input-output pairs. We present a new approach to this problem called spectrahedral regression, in which we fit a spectrahedral function to the data, i.e. a function that is the maximum eigenvalue of an affine matrix expression of the input. This method represents a significant generalization of polyhedral (also called max-affine) regression, in which a polyhedral function (a maximum of a fixed number of affine functions) is fit to the data. We prove bounds on how well spectrahedral functions can approximate arbitrary convex functions via statistical risk analysis. We also analyze an alternating minimization algorithm for the non-convex optimization problem of fitting the best spectrahedral function to a given data set. We show that this algorithm converges geometrically with high probability to a small ball around the optimal parameter given a good initialization. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our approach with experiments on synthetic data sets as well as real data arising in applications such as economics and engineering design.
Fitting a graphical model to a collection of random variables given sample observations is a challenging task if the observed variables are influenced by latent variables, which can induce significant confounding statistical dependencies among the observed variables. We present a new convex relaxation framework based on regularized conditional likelihood for latent-variable graphical modeling in which the conditional distribution of the observed variables conditioned on the latent variables is given by an exponential family graphical model. In comparison to previously proposed tractable methods that proceed by characterizing the marginal distribution of the observed variables, our approach is applicable in a broader range of settings as it does not require knowledge about the specific form of distribution of the latent variables and it can be specialized to yield tractable approaches to problems in which the observed data are not well-modeled as Gaussian. We demonstrate the utility and flexibility of our framework via a series of numerical experiments on synthetic as well as real data.
It is well-known that inference in graphical models is hard in the worst case, but tractable for models with bounded treewidth. We ask whether treewidth is the only structural criterion of the underlying graph that enables tractable inference. In other words, is there some class of structures with unbounded treewidth in which inference is tractable? Subject to a combinatorial hypothesis due to Robertson et al. (1994), we show that low treewidth is indeed the only structural restriction that can ensure tractability. Thus, even for the "best case" graph structure, there is no inference algorithm with complexity polynomial in the treewidth.