Francesco D'Angelo

Francesco D'Angelo, Nicolas Flammarion

Sequence modelling requires determining which past tokens are causally relevant from the context and their importance: a process inherent to the attention layers in transformers, yet whose underlying learned mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this work, we formalize the task of estimating token importance as an in-context learning problem by introducing a framework based on Mixture of Transition Distributions, where a latent variable determines the influence of past tokens on the next. The distribution over this latent variable is parameterized by unobserved mixture weights that transformers must learn in-context. We demonstrate that transformers can implement Mirror Descent to learn these weights from the context. Specifically, we give an explicit construction of a three-layer transformer that exactly implements one step of Mirror Descent and prove that the resulting estimator is a first-order approximation of the Bayes-optimal predictor. Corroborating our construction and its learnability via gradient descent, we empirically show that transformers trained from scratch learn solutions consistent with our theory: their predictive distributions, attention patterns, and learned transition matrix closely match the construction, while deeper models achieve performance comparable to multi-step Mirror Descent.

Francesco D'Angelo, Vincent Fortuin, Florian Wenzel

Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any guarantees for their diversity, leading to redundant solutions in function space. In contrast, particle-based inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer a Bayesian framework, but rely on the choice of a kernel to measure the similarity between ensemble members. In this work, we study different SVGD methods operating in the weight space, function space, and in a hybrid setting. We compare the SVGD approaches to other ensembling-based methods in terms of their theoretical properties and assess their empirical performance on synthetic and real-world tasks. We find that SVGD using functional and hybrid kernels can overcome the limitations of deep ensembles. It improves on functional diversity and uncertainty estimation and approaches the true Bayesian posterior more closely. Moreover, we show that using stochastic SVGD updates, as opposed to the standard deterministic ones, can further improve the performance.

Christian Henning, Maria R. Cervera, Francesco D'Angelo et al.

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off Bayesian updates yield the same result. In practice, however, recursive updating often leads to poor trade-off solutions across tasks because approximate inference is necessary for most models of interest. Here, we describe an alternative Bayesian approach where task-conditioned parameter distributions are continually inferred from data. We offer a practical deep learning implementation of our framework based on probabilistic task-conditioned hypernetworks, an approach we term posterior meta-replay. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our probabilistic hypernetworks compress sequences of posterior parameter distributions with virtually no forgetting. We obtain considerable performance gains compared to existing Bayesian CL methods, and identify task inference as our major limiting factor. This limitation has several causes that are independent of the considered sequential setting, opening up new avenues for progress in CL.