Aleksandr Yugay

Aleksei Khalin, Ekaterina Zaychenkova, Aleksandr Yugay et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems accelerate medical workflows and improve diagnostic accuracy in healthcare, serving as second-opinion systems. However, the unpredictability of AI errors poses a significant challenge, particularly in healthcare contexts, where mistakes can have severe consequences. A widely adopted safeguard is to pair predictions with uncertainty estimation, enabling human experts to focus on high-risk cases while streamlining routine verification. Current uncertainty estimation methods, however, remain limited, particularly in quantifying aleatoric uncertainty, which arises from data ambiguity and noise. To address this, we propose a novel approach that leverages disagreement in expert responses to generate targets for training machine learning models. These targets are used in conjunction with standard data labels to estimate two components of uncertainty separately, as given by the law of total variance, via a two-ensemble approach, as well as its lightweight variant. We validate our method on binary image classification, binary and multi-class image segmentation, and multiple-choice question answering. Our experiments demonstrate that incorporating expert knowledge can enhance uncertainty estimation quality by $9\%$ to $50\%$ depending on the task, making this source of information invaluable for the construction of risk-aware AI systems in healthcare applications.

Alina Kostromina, Kseniia Kuvshinova, Aleksandr Yugay et al.

While current time series research focuses on developing new models, crucial questions of selecting an optimal approach for training such models are underexplored. Tsururu, a Python library introduced in this paper, bridges SoTA research and industry by enabling flexible combinations of global and multivariate approaches and multi-step-ahead forecasting strategies. It also enables seamless integration with various forecasting models. Available at https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/tsururu .

Aleksandr Yugay, Alexey Zaytsev

High-quality representation of transactional sequences is vital for modern banking applications, including risk management, churn prediction, and personalized customer offers. Different tasks require distinct representation properties: local tasks benefit from capturing the client's current state, while global tasks rely on general behavioral patterns. Previous research has demonstrated that various self-supervised approaches yield representations that better capture either global or local qualities. This study investigates the integration of two self-supervised learning techniques - instance-wise contrastive learning and a generative approach based on restoring masked events in latent space. The combined approach creates representations that balance local and global transactional data characteristics. Experiments conducted on several public datasets, focusing on sequence classification and next-event type prediction, show that the integrated method achieves superior performance compared to individual approaches and demonstrates synergistic effects. These findings suggest that the proposed approach offers a robust framework for advancing event sequences representation learning in the financial sector.

Alexandra Bazarova, Aleksandr Yugay, Andrey Shulga et al.

Hallucination, i.e., generating factually incorrect content, remains a critical challenge for large language models (LLMs). We introduce TOHA, a TOpology-based HAllucination detector in the RAG setting, which leverages a topological divergence metric to quantify the structural properties of graphs induced by attention matrices. Examining the topological divergence between prompt and response subgraphs reveals consistent patterns: higher divergence values in specific attention heads correlate with hallucinated outputs, independent of the dataset. Extensive experiments - including evaluation on question answering and summarization tasks - show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art or competitive results on several benchmarks while requiring minimal annotated data and computational resources. Our findings suggest that analyzing the topological structure of attention matrices can serve as an efficient and robust indicator of factual reliability in LLMs.

Alexander Marusov, Aleksandr Yugay, Alexey Zaytsev

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful approach to learning representations, particularly in the field of computer vision. However, its application to dependent data, such as temporal and spatio-temporal domains, remains underexplored. Besides, traditional contrastive SSL methods often assume \emph{semantic independence between samples}, which does not hold for dependent data exhibiting complex correlations. We propose a novel theoretical framework for contrastive SSL tailored to \emph{continuous dependent data}, which allows the nearest samples to be semantically close to each other. In particular, we propose two possible \textit{ground truth similarity measures} between objects -- \emph{hard} and \emph{soft} closeness. Under it, we derive an analytical form for the \textit{estimated similarity matrix} that accommodates both types of closeness between samples, thereby introducing dependency-aware loss functions. We validate our approach, \emph{Dependent TS2Vec}, on temporal and spatio-temporal downstream problems. Given the dependency patterns presented in the data, our approach surpasses modern ones for dependent data, highlighting the effectiveness of our theoretically grounded loss functions for SSL in capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we outperform TS2Vec on the standard UEA and UCR benchmarks, with accuracy improvements of $4.17$\% and $2.08$\%, respectively. Furthermore, on the drought classification task, which involves complex spatio-temporal patterns, our method achieves a $7$\% higher ROC-AUC score.