Yinhai Wang

Huimiao Chen, Hongcai Zhang, Zechun Hu et al. · tsinghua

Recharging a plug-in electric vehicle is more time-consuming than refueling an internal combustion engine vehicle. As a result, charging stations may face serious congestion problems during peak traffic hours in the near future with the rapid growth of plug-in electric vehicle population. Considering that drivers' time costs are usually expensive, charging congestion will be a dominant factor that affect a charging station's quality of service. Hence, it is indispensable to conduct adequate congestion analysis when designing charging stations in order to guarantee acceptable quality of service in the future. This paper proposes a data-driven approach for charging congestion analysis of plug-in electric vehicle charging stations. Based on a data-driven plug-in electric vehicle charging station planning model, we adopt the queuing theory to model and analyze the charging congestion phenomenon in these planning results. We simulate and analyze the proposed method for charging stations servicing shared-use electric taxis in the central area of Beijing leveraging real-world taxi travel data.

Di Chen, Meixin Zhu, Hao Yang et al.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to significantly revolutionize society by providing a secure and efficient mode of transportation. Recent years have witnessed notable advancements in autonomous driving perception and prediction, but the challenge of validating the performance of AVs remains largely unresolved. Data-driven microscopic traffic simulation has become an important tool for autonomous driving testing due to 1) availability of high-fidelity traffic data; 2) its advantages of enabling large-scale testing and scenario reproducibility; and 3) its potential in reactive and realistic traffic simulation. However, a comprehensive review of this topic is currently lacking. This paper aims to fill this gap by summarizing relevant studies. The primary objective of this paper is to review current research efforts and provide a futuristic perspective that will benefit future developments in the field. It introduces the general issues of data-driven traffic simulation and outlines key concepts and terms. After overviewing traffic simulation, various datasets and evaluation metrics commonly used are reviewed. The paper then offers a comprehensive evaluation of imitation learning, reinforcement learning, deep generative and deep learning methods, summarizing each and analyzing their advantages and disadvantages in detail. Moreover, it evaluates the state-of-the-art, existing challenges, and future research directions.

Muhammad Monjurul Karim, Ruwen Qin, Yinhai Wang

To ensure the safe and efficient navigation of autonomous vehicles and advanced driving assistance systems in complex traffic scenarios, predicting the future bounding boxes of surrounding traffic agents is crucial. However, simultaneously predicting the future location and scale of target traffic agents from the egocentric view poses challenges due to the vehicle's egomotion causing considerable field-of-view changes. Moreover, in anomalous or risky situations, tracking loss or abrupt motion changes limit the available observation time, requiring learning of cues within a short time window. Existing methods typically use a simple concatenation operation to combine different cues, overlooking their dynamics over time. To address this, this paper introduces the Fusion-Gated Recurrent Unit (Fusion-GRU) network, a novel encoder-decoder architecture for future bounding box localization. Unlike traditional GRUs, Fusion-GRU accounts for mutual and complex interactions among input features. Moreover, an intermediary estimator coupled with a self-attention aggregation layer is also introduced to learn sequential dependencies for long range prediction. Finally, a GRU decoder is employed to predict the future bounding boxes. The proposed method is evaluated on two publicly available datasets, ROL and HEV-I. The experimental results showcase the promising performance of the Fusion-GRU, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting future bounding boxes of traffic agents.

Bingzhang Wang, Kehua Chen, Yinhai Wang

Trajectory prediction is a fundamental task in Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), supporting efficient motion planning and real-time traffic safety management. Diffusion models have recently demonstrated strong performance in probabilistic trajectory prediction, but their large model size and slow sampling process hinder real-world deployment. This paper proposes Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM), a novel method for real-time and lightweight trajectory prediction. Built upon Collaborative Progressive Distillation (CPD), CDDM progressively transfers knowledge from a high-capacity teacher diffusion model to a lightweight student model, jointly reducing both the number of sampling steps and the model size across distillation iterations. A dual-signal regularized distillation loss is further introduced to incorporate guidance from both the teacher and ground-truth data, mitigating potential overfitting and ensuring robust performance. Extensive experiments on the ETH-UCY pedestrian benchmark and the nuScenes vehicle benchmark demonstrate that CDDM achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. The well-distilled CDDM retains 96.2% and 95.5% of the baseline model's ADE and FDE performance on pedestrian trajectories, while requiring only 231K parameters and 4 or 2 sampling steps, corresponding to 161x compression, 31x acceleration, and 9 ms latency. Qualitative results further show that CDDM generates diverse and accurate trajectories under dynamic agent behaviors and complex social interactions. By bridging high-performing generative models with practical deployment constraints, CDDM enables resource-efficient probabilistic prediction for AVs and ITS. Code is available at https://github.com/bingzhangw/CDDM.

Lening Wang, Yilong Ren, Han Jiang et al.

Traffic accidents, being a significant contributor to both human casualties and property damage, have long been a focal point of research for many scholars in the field of traffic safety. However, previous studies, whether focusing on static environmental assessments or dynamic driving analyses, as well as pre-accident predictions or post-accident rule analyses, have typically been conducted in isolation. There has been a lack of an effective framework for developing a comprehensive understanding and application of traffic safety. To address this gap, this paper introduces AccidentGPT, a comprehensive accident analysis and prevention multi-modal large model. AccidentGPT establishes a multi-modal information interaction framework grounded in multi-sensor perception, thereby enabling a holistic approach to accident analysis and prevention in the field of traffic safety. Specifically, our capabilities can be categorized as follows: for autonomous driving vehicles, we provide comprehensive environmental perception and understanding to control the vehicle and avoid collisions. For human-driven vehicles, we offer proactive long-range safety warnings and blind-spot alerts while also providing safety driving recommendations and behavioral norms through human-machine dialogue and interaction. Additionally, for traffic police and management agencies, our framework supports intelligent and real-time analysis of traffic safety, encompassing pedestrian, vehicles, roads, and the environment through collaborative perception from multiple vehicles and road testing devices. The system is also capable of providing a thorough analysis of accident causes and liability after vehicle collisions. Our framework stands as the first large model to integrate comprehensive scene understanding into traffic safety studies. Project page: https://accidentgpt.github.io

Yanlin Chen, Kehua Chen, Yinhai Wang

Traffic state estimation (TSE) becomes challenging when probe-vehicle penetration is low and observations are spatially sparse. Pure data-driven methods lack physical explanations and have poor generalization when observed data is sparse. In contrast, physical models have difficulty integrating uncertainties and capturing the real complexity of traffic. To bridge this gap, recent studies have explored combining them by embedding physical structure into Gaussian process. These approaches typically introduce the governing equations as soft constraints through pseudo-observations, enabling the integration of model structure within a variational framework. However, these methods rely heavily on penalty tuning and lack principled uncertainty calibration, which makes them sensitive to model mis-specification. In this work, we address these limitations by presenting a novel Physics-Embedded Gaussian Process (PEGP), designed to integrate domain knowledge with data-driven methods in traffic state estimation. Specifically, we design two multi-output kernels informed by classic traffic flow models, constructed via the explicit application of the linearized differential operator. Experiments on HighD, NGSIM show consistent improvements over non-physics baselines. PEGP-ARZ proves more reliable under sparse observation, while PEGP-LWR achieves lower errors with denser observation. Ablation study further reveals that PEGP-ARZ residuals align closely with physics and yield calibrated, interpretable uncertainty, whereas PEGP-LWR residuals are more orthogonal and produce nearly constant variance fields. This PEGP framework combines physical priors, uncertainty quantification, which can provide reliable support for TSE.

Muhammad Monjurul Karim, Yan Shi, Shucheng Zhang et al.

Roadway safety and mobility remain critical challenges for modern transportation systems, demanding innovative analytical frameworks capable of addressing complex, dynamic, and heterogeneous environments. While traditional engineering methods have made progress, the complexity and dynamism of real-world traffic necessitate more advanced analytical frameworks. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their unprecedented capabilities in natural language understanding, knowledge integration, and reasoning, represent a promising paradigm shift. This paper comprehensively reviews the application and customization of LLMs for enhancing roadway safety and mobility. A key focus is how LLMs are adapted -- via architectural, training, prompting, and multimodal strategies -- to bridge the "modality gap" with transportation's unique spatio-temporal and physical data. The review systematically analyzes diverse LLM applications in mobility (e.g., traffic flow prediction, signal control) and safety (e.g., crash analysis, driver behavior assessment,). Enabling technologies such as V2X integration, domain-specific foundation models, explainability frameworks, and edge computing are also examined. Despite significant potential, challenges persist regarding inherent LLM limitations (hallucinations, reasoning deficits), data governance (privacy, bias), deployment complexities (sim-to-real, latency), and rigorous safety assurance. Promising future research directions are highlighted, including advanced multimodal fusion, enhanced spatio-temporal reasoning, human-AI collaboration, continuous learning, and the development of efficient, verifiable systems. This review provides a structured roadmap of current capabilities, limitations, and opportunities, underscoring LLMs' transformative potential while emphasizing the need for responsible innovation to realize safer, more intelligent transportation systems.

Tongtong Zhang, Zhiyong Cui, Bingzhang Wang et al.

In urban computing, precise and swift forecasting of multivariate time series data from traffic networks is crucial. This data incorporates additional spatial contexts such as sensor placements and road network layouts, and exhibits complex temporal patterns that amplify challenges for predictive learning in traffic management, smart mobility demand, and urban planning. Consequently, there is an increasing need to forecast traffic flow across broader geographic regions and for higher temporal coverage. However, current research encounters limitations because of the inherent inefficiency of model and their unsuitability for large-scale traffic network applications due to model complexity. This paper proposes a novel framework, named PreMixer, designed to bridge this gap. It features a predictive model and a pre-training mechanism, both based on the principles of Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP). The PreMixer comprehensively consider temporal dependencies of traffic patterns in different time windows and processes the spatial dynamics as well. Additionally, we integrate spatio-temporal positional encoding to manage spatiotemporal heterogeneity without relying on predefined graphs. Furthermore, our innovative pre-training model uses a simple patch-wise MLP to conduct masked time series modeling, learning from long-term historical data segmented into patches to generate enriched contextual representations. This approach enhances the downstream forecasting model without incurring significant time consumption or computational resource demands owing to improved learning efficiency and data handling flexibility. Our framework achieves comparable state-of-the-art performance while maintaining high computational efficiency, as verified by extensive experiments on large-scale traffic datasets.

Yuhao Luo, Yuang Zhang, Kehua Chen et al.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and efficiency in autonomous driving and human-robot interaction scenarios. Earlier studies primarily utilized sufficient observational data to predict future trajectories. However, in real-world scenarios, such as pedestrians suddenly emerging from blind spots, sufficient observational data is often unavailable (i.e. momentary trajectory), making accurate prediction challenging and increasing the risk of traffic accidents. Therefore, advancing research on pedestrian trajectory prediction under extreme scenarios is critical for enhancing traffic safety. In this work, we propose a novel framework termed Diffusion^2, tailored for momentary trajectory prediction. Diffusion^2 consists of two sequentially connected diffusion models: one for backward prediction, which generates unobserved historical trajectories, and the other for forward prediction, which forecasts future trajectories. Given that the generated unobserved historical trajectories may introduce additional noise, we propose a dual-head parameterization mechanism to estimate their aleatoric uncertainty and design a temporally adaptive noise module that dynamically modulates the noise scale in the forward diffusion process. Empirically, Diffusion^2 sets a new state-of-the-art in momentary trajectory prediction on ETH/UCY and Stanford Drone datasets.

Kehua Chen, Shucheng Zhang, Yinhai Wang

Modeling vehicle interactions at unsignalized intersections is a challenging task due to the complexity of the underlying game-theoretic processes. Although prior studies have attempted to capture interactive driving behaviors, most approaches relied solely on game-theoretic formulations and did not leverage naturalistic driving datasets. In this study, we learn human-like interactive driving policies at unsignalized intersections using Deep Fictitious Play. Specifically, we first model vehicle interactions as a Differential Game, which is then reformulated as a Potential Differential Game. The weights in the cost function are learned from the dataset and capture diverse driving styles. We also demonstrate that our framework provides a theoretical guarantee of convergence to a Nash equilibrium. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to train interactive driving policies using Deep Fictitious Play. We validate the effectiveness of our Deep Fictitious Play-Based Potential Differential Game (DFP-PDG) framework using the INTERACTION dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves satisfactory performance in learning human-like driving policies. The learned individual weights effectively capture variations in driver aggressiveness and preferences. Furthermore, the ablation study highlights the importance of each component within our model.

Xianda Chen, Xu Han, Meixin Zhu et al.

In the realm of driving technologies, fully autonomous vehicles have not been widely adopted yet, making advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) crucial for enhancing driving experiences. Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) emerges as a pivotal component of ADAS. However, current ACC systems often employ fixed settings, failing to intuitively capture drivers' social preferences and leading to potential function disengagement. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Editable Behavior Generation (EBG) model, a data-driven car-following model that allows for adjusting driving discourtesy levels. The framework integrates diverse courtesy calculation methods into long short-term memory (LSTM) and Transformer architectures, offering a comprehensive approach to capture nuanced driving dynamics. By integrating various discourtesy values during the training process, our model generates realistic agent trajectories with different levels of courtesy in car-following behavior. Experimental results on the HighD and Waymo datasets showcase a reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE) of spacing and MSE of speed compared to baselines, establishing style controllability. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first data-driven car-following model capable of dynamically adjusting discourtesy levels. Our model provides valuable insights for the development of ACC systems that take into account drivers' social preferences.

Meixin Zhu, Simon S. Du, Xuesong Wang et al.

Car-following refers to a control process in which the following vehicle (FV) tries to keep a safe distance between itself and the lead vehicle (LV) by adjusting its acceleration in response to the actions of the vehicle ahead. The corresponding car-following models, which describe how one vehicle follows another vehicle in the traffic flow, form the cornerstone for microscopic traffic simulation and intelligent vehicle development. One major motivation of car-following models is to replicate human drivers' longitudinal driving trajectories. To model the long-term dependency of future actions on historical driving situations, we developed a long-sequence car-following trajectory prediction model based on the attention-based Transformer model. The model follows a general format of encoder-decoder architecture. The encoder takes historical speed and spacing data as inputs and forms a mixed representation of historical driving context using multi-head self-attention. The decoder takes the future LV speed profile as input and outputs the predicted future FV speed profile in a generative way (instead of an auto-regressive way, avoiding compounding errors). Through cross-attention between encoder and decoder, the decoder learns to build a connection between historical driving and future LV speed, based on which a prediction of future FV speed can be obtained. We train and test our model with 112,597 real-world car-following events extracted from the Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study (SH-NDS). Results show that the model outperforms the traditional intelligent driver model (IDM), a fully connected neural network model, and a long short-term memory (LSTM) based model in terms of long-sequence trajectory prediction accuracy. We also visualized the self-attention and cross-attention heatmaps to explain how the model derives its predictions.

Yifan Zhuang, Ziyuan Pu, Jia Hu et al.

Accurate and efficient pedestrian detection is crucial for the intelligent transportation system regarding pedestrian safety and mobility, e.g., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, and smart pedestrian crosswalk systems. Among all pedestrian detection methods, vision-based detection method is demonstrated to be the most effective in previous studies. However, the existing vision-based pedestrian detection algorithms still have two limitations that restrict their implementations, those being real-time performance as well as the resistance to the impacts of environmental factors, e.g., low illumination conditions. To address these issues, this study proposes a lightweight Illumination and Temperature-aware Multispectral Network (IT-MN) for accurate and efficient pedestrian detection. The proposed IT-MN is an efficient one-stage detector. For accommodating the impacts of environmental factors and enhancing the sensing accuracy, thermal image data is fused by the proposed IT-MN with visual images to enrich useful information when visual image quality is limited. In addition, an innovative and effective late fusion strategy is also developed to optimize the image fusion performance. To make the proposed model implementable for edge computing, the model quantization is applied to reduce the model size by 75% while shortening the inference time significantly. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing with the selected state-of-the-art algorithms using a public dataset collected by in-vehicle cameras. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves a low miss rate and inference time at 14.19% and 0.03 seconds per image pair on GPU. Besides, the quantized IT-MN achieves an inference time of 0.21 seconds per image pair on the edge device, which also demonstrates the potentiality of deploying the proposed model on edge devices as a highly efficient pedestrian detection algorithm.

Ruimin Ke, Zhiyong Cui, Yanlong Chen et al.

Traffic near-crash events serve as critical data sources for various smart transportation applications, such as being surrogate safety measures for traffic safety research and corner case data for automated vehicle testing. However, there are several key challenges for near-crash detection. First, extracting near-crashes from original data sources requires significant computing, communication, and storage resources. Also, existing methods lack efficiency and transferability, which bottlenecks prospective large-scale applications. To this end, this paper leverages the power of edge computing to address these challenges by processing the video streams from existing dashcams onboard in a real-time manner. We design a multi-thread system architecture that operates on edge devices and model the bounding boxes generated by object detection and tracking in linear complexity. The method is insensitive to camera parameters and backward compatible with different vehicles. The edge computing system has been evaluated with recorded videos and real-world tests on two cars and four buses for over ten thousand hours. It filters out irrelevant videos in real-time thereby saving labor cost, processing time, network bandwidth, and data storage. It collects not only event videos but also other valuable data such as road user type, event location, time to collision, vehicle trajectory, vehicle speed, brake switch, and throttle. The experiments demonstrate the promising performance of the system regarding efficiency, accuracy, reliability, and transferability. It is among the first efforts in applying edge computing for real-time traffic video analytics and is expected to benefit multiple sub-fields in smart transportation research and applications.

Zhiyong Cui, Ruimin Ke, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Short-term traffic forecasting based on deep learning methods, especially recurrent neural networks (RNN), has received much attention in recent years. However, the potential of RNN-based models in traffic forecasting has not yet been fully exploited in terms of the predictive power of spatial-temporal data and the capability of handling missing data. In this paper, we focus on RNN-based models and attempt to reformulate the way to incorporate RNN and its variants into traffic prediction models. A stacked bidirectional and unidirectional LSTM network architecture (SBU-LSTM) is proposed to assist the design of neural network structures for traffic state forecasting. As a key component of the architecture, the bidirectional LSTM (BDLSM) is exploited to capture the forward and backward temporal dependencies in spatiotemporal data. To deal with missing values in spatial-temporal data, we also propose a data imputation mechanism in the LSTM structure (LSTM-I) by designing an imputation unit to infer missing values and assist traffic prediction. The bidirectional version of LSTM-I is incorporated in the SBU-LSTM architecture. Two real-world network-wide traffic state datasets are used to conduct experiments and published to facilitate further traffic prediction research. The prediction performance of multiple types of multi-layer LSTM or BDLSTM models is evaluated. Experimental results indicate that the proposed SBU-LSTM architecture, especially the two-layer BDLSTM network, can achieve superior performance for the network-wide traffic prediction in both accuracy and robustness. Further, comprehensive comparison results show that the proposed data imputation mechanism in the RNN-based models can achieve outstanding prediction performance when the model's input data contains different patterns of missing values.

Zhiyong Cui, Longfei Lin, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Traffic forecasting is a classical task for traffic management and it plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, since traffic data are mostly collected by traffic sensors or probe vehicles, sensor failures and the lack of probe vehicles will inevitably result in missing values in the collected raw data for some specific links in the traffic network. Although missing values can be imputed, existing data imputation methods normally need long-term historical traffic state data. As for short-term traffic forecasting, especially under edge computing and online prediction scenarios, traffic forecasting models with the capability of handling missing values are needed. In this study, we consider the traffic network as a graph and define the transition between network-wide traffic states at consecutive time steps as a graph Markov process. In this way, missing traffic states can be inferred step by step and the spatial-temporal relationships among the roadway links can be Incorporated. Based on the graph Markov process, we propose a new neural network architecture for spatial-temporal data forecasting, i.e. the graph Markov network (GMN). By incorporating the spectral graph convolution operation, we also propose a spectral graph Markov network (SGMN). The proposed models are compared with baseline models and tested on three real-world traffic state datasets with various missing rates. Experimental results show that the proposed GMN and SGMN can achieve superior prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the proposed models' parameters, weights, and predicted results are comprehensively analyzed and visualized.

Ziyuan Pu, Shuo Wang, Chenglong Liu et al.

Road surface friction significantly impacts traffic safety and mobility. A precise road surface friction prediction model can help to alleviate the influence of inclement road conditions on traffic safety, Level of Service, traffic mobility, fuel efficiency, and sustained economic productivity. Most related previous studies are laboratory-based methods that are difficult for practical implementation. Moreover, in other data-driven methods, the demonstrated time-series features of road surface conditions have not been considered. This study employed a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to develop a data-driven road surface friction prediction model based on historical data. The proposed prediction model outperformed the other baseline models in terms of the lowest value of predictive performance measurements. The influence of the number of time-lags and the predicting time interval on predictive accuracy was analyzed. In addition, the influence of adding road surface water thickness, road surface temperature and air temperature on predictive accuracy also were investigated. The findings of this study can support road maintenance strategy development and decision making, thus mitigating the impact of inclement road conditions on traffic mobility and safety. Future work includes a modified LSTM-based prediction model development by accommodating flexible time intervals between time-lags.

Meixin Zhu, Jingyun Hu, Ziyuan Pu et al.

This study developed a traffic sign detection and recognition algorithm based on the RetinaNet. Two main aspects were revised to improve the detection of traffic signs: image cropping to address the issue of large image and small traffic signs; and using more anchors with various scales to detect traffic signs with different sizes and shapes. The proposed algorithm was trained and tested in a series of autonomous driving front-view images in a virtual simulation environment. Results show that the algorithm performed extremely well under good illumination and weather conditions. Its drawbacks are that it sometimes failed to detect object under bad weather conditions like snow and failed to distinguish speed limits signs with different limit values.

Meixin Zhu, Jingyun Hu, Hao et al.

This study proposes to find the most appropriate transport modes with awareness of user preferences (e.g., costs, times) and trip characteristics (e.g., purpose, distance). The work was based on real-life trips obtained from a map application. Several methods including gradient boosting tree, learning to rank, multinomial logit model, automated machine learning, random forest, and shallow neural network have been tried. For some methods, feature selection and over-sampling techniques were also tried. The results show that the best performing method is a gradient boosting tree model with synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE). Also, results of the multinomial logit model show that (1) an increase in travel cost would decrease the utility of all the transportation modes; (2) people are less sensitive to the travel distance for the metro mode or a multi-modal option that containing metro, i.e., compared to other modes, people would be more willing to tolerate long-distance metro trips. This indicates that metro lines might be a good candidate for large cities.

Ruimin Ke, Wan Li, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Traffic speed prediction is a critically important component of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Recently, with the rapid development of deep learning and transportation data science, a growing body of new traffic speed prediction models have been designed, which achieved high accuracy and large-scale prediction. However, existing studies have two major limitations. First, they predict aggregated traffic speed rather than lane-level traffic speed; second, most studies ignore the impact of other traffic flow parameters in speed prediction. To address these issues, we propose a two-stream multi-channel convolutional neural network (TM-CNN) model for multi-lane traffic speed prediction considering traffic volume impact. In this model, we first introduce a new data conversion method that converts raw traffic speed data and volume data into spatial-temporal multi-channel matrices. Then we carefully design a two-stream deep neural network to effectively learn the features and correlations between individual lanes, in the spatial-temporal dimensions, and between speed and volume. Accordingly, a new loss function that considers the volume impact in speed prediction is developed. A case study using one-year data validates the TM-CNN model and demonstrates its superiority. This paper contributes to two research areas: (1) traffic speed prediction, and (2) multi-lane traffic flow study.

Meixin Zhu, Yinhai Wang, Ziyuan Pu et al.

A model used for velocity control during car following was proposed based on deep reinforcement learning (RL). To fulfil the multi-objectives of car following, a reward function reflecting driving safety, efficiency, and comfort was constructed. With the reward function, the RL agent learns to control vehicle speed in a fashion that maximizes cumulative rewards, through trials and errors in the simulation environment. A total of 1,341 car-following events extracted from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) dataset were used to train the model. Car-following behavior produced by the model were compared with that observed in the empirical NGSIM data, to demonstrate the model's ability to follow a lead vehicle safely, efficiently, and comfortably. Results show that the model demonstrates the capability of safe, efficient, and comfortable velocity control in that it 1) has small percentages (8\%) of dangerous minimum time to collision values (\textless\ 5s) than human drivers in the NGSIM data (35\%); 2) can maintain efficient and safe headways in the range of 1s to 2s; and 3) can follow the lead vehicle comfortably with smooth acceleration. The results indicate that reinforcement learning methods could contribute to the development of autonomous driving systems.

Meixin Zhu, Xuesong Wang, Yinhai Wang

This study proposes a framework for human-like autonomous car-following planning based on deep reinforcement learning (deep RL). Historical driving data are fed into a simulation environment where an RL agent learns from trial and error interactions based on a reward function that signals how much the agent deviates from the empirical data. Through these interactions, an optimal policy, or car-following model that maps in a human-like way from speed, relative speed between a lead and following vehicle, and inter-vehicle spacing to acceleration of a following vehicle is finally obtained. The model can be continuously updated when more data are fed in. Two thousand car-following periods extracted from the 2015 Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study were used to train the model and compare its performance with that of traditional and recent data-driven car-following models. As shown by this study results, a deep deterministic policy gradient car-following model that uses disparity between simulated and observed speed as the reward function and considers a reaction delay of 1s, denoted as DDPGvRT, can reproduce human-like car-following behavior with higher accuracy than traditional and recent data-driven car-following models. Specifically, the DDPGvRT model has a spacing validation error of 18% and speed validation error of 5%, which are less than those of other models, including the intelligent driver model, models based on locally weighted regression, and conventional neural network-based models. Moreover, the DDPGvRT demonstrates good capability of generalization to various driving situations and can adapt to different drivers by continuously learning. This study demonstrates that reinforcement learning methodology can offer insight into driver behavior and can contribute to the development of human-like autonomous driving algorithms and traffic-flow models.

Xiaolei Ma, Yi Li, Zhiyong Cui et al.

Accurate and reliable traffic forecasting for complicated transportation networks is of vital importance to modern transportation management. The complicated spatial dependencies of roadway links and the dynamic temporal patterns of traffic states make it particularly challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a new capsule network (CapsNet) to extract the spatial features of traffic networks and utilize a nested LSTM (NLSTM) structure to capture the hierarchical temporal dependencies in traffic sequence data. A framework for network-level traffic forecasting is also proposed by sequentially connecting CapsNet and NLSTM. On the basis of literature review, our study is the first to adopt CapsNet and NLSTM in the field of traffic forecasting. An experiment on a Beijing transportation network with 278 links shows that the proposed framework with the capability of capturing complicated spatiotemporal traffic patterns outperforms multiple state-of-the-art traffic forecasting baseline models. The superiority and feasibility of CapsNet and NLSTM are also demonstrated, respectively, by visualizing and quantitatively evaluating the experimental results.

Zhengchao Zhang, Meng Li, Xi Lin et al.

Multistep traffic forecasting on road networks is a crucial task in successful intelligent transportation system applications. To capture the complex non-stationary temporal dynamics and spatial dependency in multistep traffic-condition prediction, we propose a novel deep learning framework named attention graph convolutional sequence-to-sequence model (AGC-Seq2Seq). In the proposed deep learning framework, spatial and temporal dependencies are modeled through the Seq2Seq model and graph convolution network separately, and the attention mechanism along with a newly designed training method based on the Seq2Seq architecture is proposed to overcome the difficulty in multistep prediction and further capture the temporal heterogeneity of traffic pattern. We conduct numerical tests to compare AGC-Seq2Seq with other benchmark models using a real-world dataset. The results indicate that our model yields the best prediction performance in terms of various prediction error measures. Furthermore, the variation of spatiotemporal correlation of traffic conditions under different perdition steps and road segments is revealed through sensitivity analyses.

Zhiyong Cui, Kristian Henrickson, Ruimin Ke et al.

Traffic forecasting is a particularly challenging application of spatiotemporal forecasting, due to the time-varying traffic patterns and the complicated spatial dependencies on road networks. To address this challenge, we learn the traffic network as a graph and propose a novel deep learning framework, Traffic Graph Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (TGC-LSTM), to learn the interactions between roadways in the traffic network and forecast the network-wide traffic state. We define the traffic graph convolution based on the physical network topology. The relationship between the proposed traffic graph convolution and the spectral graph convolution is also discussed. An L1-norm on graph convolution weights and an L2-norm on graph convolution features are added to the model's loss function to enhance the interpretability of the proposed model. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline methods on two real-world traffic state datasets. The visualization of the graph convolution weights indicates that the proposed framework can recognize the most influential road segments in real-world traffic networks.