Wei Ma

Tong Nie, Yuewen Mei, Guoyang Qin et al.

The balance between model capacity and generalization has been a key focus of recent discussions in long-term time series forecasting. Two representative channel strategies are closely associated with model expressivity and robustness, including channel independence (CI) and channel dependence (CD). The former adopts individual channel treatment and has been shown to be more robust to distribution shifts, but lacks sufficient capacity to model meaningful channel interactions. The latter is more expressive for representing complex cross-channel dependencies, but is prone to overfitting. To balance the two strategies, we present a channel-aware low-rank adaptation method to condition CD models on identity-aware individual components. As a plug-in solution, it is adaptable for a wide range of backbone architectures. Extensive experiments show that it can consistently and significantly improve the performance of both CI and CD models with demonstrated efficiency and flexibility. The code is available at https://github.com/tongnie/C-LoRA.

Xiaohui Liu, Sean Qian, Hock-Hai Teo et al.

Curb space is one of the busiest areas in urban road networks. Especially in recent years, the rapid increase of ride-hailing trips and commercial deliveries has induced massive pick-ups/drop-offs (PUDOs), which occupy the limited curb space that was designed and built decades ago. These PUDOs could jam curbside utilization and disturb the mainline traffic flow, evidently leading to significant negative societal externalities. However, there is a lack of an analytical framework that rigorously quantifies and mitigates the congestion effect of PUDOs in the system view, particularly with little data support and involvement of confounding effects. To bridge this research gap, this paper develops a rigorous causal inference approach to estimate the congestion effect of PUDOs on general regional networks. A causal graph is set to represent the spatio-temporal relationship between PUDOs and traffic speed, and a double and separated machine learning (DSML) method is proposed to quantify how PUDOs affect traffic congestion. Additionally, a re-routing formulation is developed and solved to encourage passenger walking and traffic flow re-routing to achieve system optimization. Numerical experiments are conducted using real-world data in the Manhattan area. On average, 100 additional units of PUDOs in a region could reduce the traffic speed by 3.70 and 4.54 mph on weekdays and weekends, respectively. Re-routing trips with PUDOs on curb space could respectively reduce the system-wide total travel time by 2.44% and 2.12% in Midtown and Central Park on weekdays. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed framework.

Mingxi Li, Yihong Tang, Wei Ma

Accurate short-term traffic prediction plays a pivotal role in various smart mobility operation and management systems. Currently, most of the state-of-the-art prediction models are based on graph neural networks (GNNs), and the required training samples are proportional to the size of the traffic network. In many cities, the available amount of traffic data is substantially below the minimum requirement due to the data collection expense. It is still an open question to develop traffic prediction models with a small size of training data on large-scale networks. We notice that the traffic states of a node for the near future only depend on the traffic states of its localized neighborhoods, which can be represented using the graph relational inductive biases. In view of this, this paper develops a graph network (GN)-based deep learning model LocaleGN that depicts the traffic dynamics using localized data aggregating and updating functions, as well as the node-wise recurrent neural networks. LocaleGN is a light-weighted model designed for training on few samples without over-fitting, and hence it can solve the problem of few-sample traffic prediction. The proposed model is examined on predicting both traffic speed and flow with six datasets, and the experimental results demonstrate that LocaleGN outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline models. It is also demonstrated that the learned knowledge from LocaleGN can be transferred across cities. The research outcomes can help to develop light-weighted traffic prediction systems, especially for cities lacking historically archived traffic data.

Hanyu Sun, Xiao Huang, Wei Ma

To provide real-time parking information, existing studies focus on predicting parking availability, which seems an indirect approach to saving drivers' cruising time. In this paper, we first time propose an on-street parking recommendation (OPR) task to directly recommend a parking space for a driver. To this end, a learn-to-rank (LTR) based OPR model called OPR-LTR is built. Specifically, parking recommendation is closely related to the "turnover events" (state switching between occupied and vacant) of each parking space, and hence we design a highly efficient heterogeneous graph called ESGraph to represent historical and real-time meters' turnover events as well as geographical relations; afterward, a convolution-based event-then-graph network is used to aggregate and update representations of the heterogeneous graph. A ranking model is further utilized to learn a score function that helps recommend a list of ranked parking spots for a specific on-street parking query. The method is verified using the on-street parking meter data in Hong Kong and San Francisco. By comparing with the other two types of methods: prediction-only and prediction-then-recommendation, the proposed direct-recommendation method achieves satisfactory performance in different metrics. Extensive experiments also demonstrate that the proposed ESGraph and the recommendation model are more efficient in terms of computational efficiency as well as saving drivers' on-street parking time.

Wei Ma, Sean Qian

Transportation systems are being reshaped by ride-sourcing and shared mobility services in recent years. The transportation network companies (TNCs) have been collecting high-granular ride-sourcing vehicle (RV) trajectory data over the past decade, while it is still unclear how the RV data can improve current dynamic network modeling for network traffic management. This paper proposes to statistically estimate network disequilibrium level (NDL), namely to what extent the dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) conditions are deviated in real-world networks. Using the data based on RV trajectories, we present a novel method to estimate the real-world NDL measure. More importantly, we present a method to compute zone-to-zone travel time data from trajectory-level RV data. This would become a data-sharing scheme for TNCs such that, while being used to effectively estimate and reduce NDL, the zone-to-zone data reveals neither personally identifiable information nor trip-level business information if shared with the public. In addition, we present an NDL based traffic management method to perform user optimal routing on a small fraction of vehicles in the network. The NDL measures and NDL-based routing are examined on two real-world large-scale networks: the City of Chengdu with trajectory-level RV data and the City of Pittsburgh with zone-to-zone travel time data. We found that, on weekdays in each city, NDLs are likely high when travel demand is high (thus when congestion is mild or heavy).

Tong Nie, Jian Sun, Wei Ma

Modern transportation systems face pressing challenges due to increasing demand, dynamic environments, and heterogeneous information integration. The rapid evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers transformative potential to address these challenges. Extensive knowledge and high-level capabilities derived from pretraining evolve the default role of LLMs as text generators to become versatile, knowledge-driven task solvers for intelligent transportation systems. This survey first presents LLM4TR, a novel conceptual framework that systematically categorizes the roles of LLMs in transportation into four synergetic dimensions: information processors, knowledge encoders, component generators, and decision facilitators. Through a unified taxonomy, we systematically elucidate how LLMs bridge fragmented data pipelines, enhance predictive analytics, simulate human-like reasoning, and enable closed-loop interactions across sensing, learning, modeling, and managing tasks in transportation systems. For each role, our review spans diverse applications, from traffic prediction and autonomous driving to safety analytics and urban mobility optimization, highlighting how emergent capabilities of LLMs such as in-context learning and step-by-step reasoning can enhance the operation and management of transportation systems. We further curate practical guidance, including available resources and computational guidelines, to support real-world deployment. By identifying challenges in existing LLM-based solutions, this survey charts a roadmap for advancing LLM-driven transportation research, positioning LLMs as central actors in the next generation of cyber-physical-social mobility ecosystems. Online resources can be found in the project page: https://github.com/tongnie/awesome-llm4tr.

Lyuyi Zhu, Kairui Feng, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Real-time traffic prediction models play a pivotal role in smart mobility systems and have been widely used in route guidance, emerging mobility services, and advanced traffic management systems. With the availability of massive traffic data, neural network-based deep learning methods, especially the graph convolutional networks (GCN) have demonstrated outstanding performance in mining spatio-temporal information and achieving high prediction accuracy. Recent studies reveal the vulnerability of GCN under adversarial attacks, while there is a lack of studies to understand the vulnerability issues of the GCN-based traffic prediction models. Given this, this paper proposes a new task -- diffusion attack, to study the robustness of GCN-based traffic prediction models. The diffusion attack aims to select and attack a small set of nodes to degrade the performance of the entire prediction model. To conduct the diffusion attack, we propose a novel attack algorithm, which consists of two major components: 1) approximating the gradient of the black-box prediction model with Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA); 2) adapting the knapsack greedy algorithm to select the attack nodes. The proposed algorithm is examined with three GCN-based traffic prediction models: St-Gcn, T-Gcn, and A3t-Gcn on two cities. The proposed algorithm demonstrates high efficiency in the adversarial attack tasks under various scenarios, and it can still generate adversarial samples under the drop regularization such as DropOut, DropNode, and DropEdge. The research outcomes could help to improve the robustness of the GCN-based traffic prediction models and better protect the smart mobility systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LYZ98/Adversarial-Diffusion-Attacks-on-Graph-based-Traffic-Prediction-Models

Tong Nie, Wei Ma, Jian Sun et al.

Urban time series, such as mobility flows, energy consumption, and pollution records, encapsulate complex urban dynamics and structures. However, data collection in each city is impeded by technical challenges such as budget limitations and sensor failures, necessitating effective data imputation techniques that can enhance data quality and reliability. Existing imputation models, categorized into learning-based and analytics-based paradigms, grapple with the trade-off between capacity and generalizability. Collaborative learning to reconstruct data across multiple cities holds the promise of breaking this trade-off. Nevertheless, urban data's inherent irregularity and heterogeneity issues exacerbate challenges of knowledge sharing and collaboration across cities. To address these limitations, we propose a novel collaborative imputation paradigm leveraging meta-learned implicit neural representations (INRs). INRs offer a continuous mapping from domain coordinates to target values, integrating the strengths of both paradigms. By imposing embedding theory, we first employ continuous parameterization to handle irregularity and reconstruct the dynamical system. We then introduce a cross-city collaborative learning scheme through model-agnostic meta learning, incorporating hierarchical modulation and normalization techniques to accommodate multiscale representations and reduce variance in response to heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on a diverse urban dataset from 20 global cities demonstrate our model's superior imputation performance and generalizability, underscoring the effectiveness of collaborative imputation in resource-constrained settings.

Wei Ma, Yixiao Yang, Jingquan Ge et al.

Code generation models are widely used in software development, yet their sensitivity to prompt phrasing remains under-examined. Identical requirements expressed with different emotions or communication styles can yield divergent outputs, while most benchmarks emphasize only peak performance. We present PromptSE (Prompt Sensitivity Evaluation), a framework that creates semantically equivalent prompt variants with emotion and personality templates, and that evaluates stability using probability aware continuous scoring or using binary pass rates when logits are unavailable. The results are aggregated into a proposed area under curve metric (AUC-E) for cross model comparison. Across 14 models from three families (Llama, Qwen, and DeepSeek), our study shows that performance and stability behave as largely decoupled optimization objectives, and it reveals architectural and scale related patterns that challenge common assumptions about model robustness. The framework supports rapid screening for closed-source models as well as detailed stability analysis in research settings. PromptSE enables practitioners to quantify performance stability trade offs for deployment and model selection, positioning prompt stability as a complementary evaluation dimension alongside performance and fairness, and contributing to more trustworthy AI-assisted software development tools.

Tong Nie, Jian Sun, Wei Ma

Networked urban systems facilitate the flow of people, resources, and services, and are essential for economic and social interactions. These systems often involve complex processes with unknown governing rules, observed by sensor-based time series. To aid decision-making in industrial and engineering contexts, data-driven predictive models are used to forecast spatiotemporal dynamics of urban systems. Current models such as graph neural networks have shown promise but face a trade-off between efficacy and efficiency due to computational demands. Hence, their applications in large-scale networks still require further efforts. This paper addresses this trade-off challenge by drawing inspiration from physical laws to inform essential model designs that align with fundamental principles and avoid architectural redundancy. By understanding both micro- and macro-processes, we present a principled interpretable neural diffusion scheme based on Transformer-like structures whose attention layers are induced by low-dimensional embeddings. The proposed scalable spatiotemporal Transformer (ScaleSTF), with linear complexity, is validated on large-scale urban systems including traffic flow, solar power, and smart meters, showing state-of-the-art performance and remarkable scalability. Our results constitute a fresh perspective on the dynamics prediction in large-scale urban networks.

Yihong Tang, Ao Qu, Andy H. F. Chow et al.

Accurate real-time traffic forecast is critical for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and it serves as the cornerstone of various smart mobility applications. Though this research area is dominated by deep learning, recent studies indicate that the accuracy improvement by developing new model structures is becoming marginal. Instead, we envision that the improvement can be achieved by transferring the "forecasting-related knowledge" across cities with different data distributions and network topologies. To this end, this paper aims to propose a novel transferable traffic forecasting framework: Domain Adversarial Spatial-Temporal Network (DASTNet). DASTNet is pre-trained on multiple source networks and fine-tuned with the target network's traffic data. Specifically, we leverage the graph representation learning and adversarial domain adaptation techniques to learn the domain-invariant node embeddings, which are further incorporated to model the temporal traffic data. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to employ adversarial multi-domain adaptation for network-wide traffic forecasting problems. DASTNet consistently outperforms all state-of-the-art baseline methods on three benchmark datasets. The trained DASTNet is applied to Hong Kong's new traffic detectors, and accurate traffic predictions can be delivered immediately (within one day) when the detector is available. Overall, this study suggests an alternative to enhance the traffic forecasting methods and provides practical implications for cities lacking historical traffic data.

Wei Ma, Mengjie Zhao, Ezekiel Soremekun et al.

Code embedding is a keystone in the application of machine learning on several Software Engineering (SE) tasks. To effectively support a plethora of SE tasks, the embedding needs to capture program syntax and semantics in a way that is generic. To this end, we propose the first self-supervised pre-training approach (called GraphCode2Vec) which produces task-agnostic embedding of lexical and program dependence features. GraphCode2Vec achieves this via a synergistic combination of code analysis and Graph Neural Networks. GraphCode2Vec is generic, it allows pre-training, and it is applicable to several SE downstream tasks. We evaluate the effectiveness of GraphCode2Vec on four (4) tasks (method name prediction, solution classification, mutation testing and overfitted patch classification), and compare it with four (4) similarly generic code embedding baselines (Code2Seq, Code2Vec, CodeBERT, GraphCodeBERT) and 7 task-specific, learning-based methods. In particular, GraphCode2Vec is more effective than both generic and task-specific learning-based baselines. It is also complementary and comparable to GraphCodeBERT (a larger and more complex model). We also demonstrate through a probing and ablation study that GraphCode2Vec learns lexical and program dependence features and that self-supervised pre-training improves effectiveness.

Ao Qu, Yihong Tang, Wei Ma

The rapid advancements of Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) have catalyzed the development of adaptive traffic signal control systems (ATCS) for smart cities. In particular, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) methods produce the state-of-the-art performance and have great potentials for practical applications. In the existing DRL-based ATCS, the controlled signals collect traffic state information from nearby vehicles, and then optimal actions (e.g., switching phases) can be determined based on the collected information. The DRL models fully "trust" that vehicles are sending the true information to the signals, making the ATCS vulnerable to adversarial attacks with falsified information. In view of this, this paper first time formulates a novel task in which a group of vehicles can cooperatively send falsified information to "cheat" DRL-based ATCS in order to save their total travel time. To solve the proposed task, we develop CollusionVeh, a generic and effective vehicle-colluding framework composed of a road situation encoder, a vehicle interpreter, and a communication mechanism. We employ our method to attack established DRL-based ATCS and demonstrate that the total travel time for the colluding vehicles can be significantly reduced with a reasonable number of learning episodes, and the colluding effect will decrease if the number of colluding vehicles increases. Additionally, insights and suggestions for the real-world deployment of DRL-based ATCS are provided. The research outcomes could help improve the reliability and robustness of the ATCS and better protect the smart mobility systems.

Jinlei Zhang, Feng Chen, Lixing Yang et al.

Urban rail transit (URT) system plays a dominating role in many megacities like Beijing and Hong Kong. Due to its important role and complex nature, it is always in great need for public agencies to better understand the performance of the URT system. This paper focuses on an essential and hard problem to estimate the network-wide link travel time and station waiting time using the automatic fare collection (AFC) data in the URT system, which is beneficial to better understand the system-wide real-time operation state. The emerging data-driven techniques, such as computational graph (CG) models in the machine learning field, provide a new solution for solving this problem. In this study, we first formulate a data-driven estimation optimization framework to estimate the link travel time and station waiting time. Then, we cast the estimation optimization model into a CG framework to solve the optimization problem and obtain the estimation results. The methodology is verified on a synthetic URT network and applied to a real-world URT network using the synthetic and real-world AFC data, respectively. Results show the robustness and effectiveness of the CG-based framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that the CG is applied to the URT. This study can provide critical insights to better understand the operational state in URT.

Wei Ma, Sean Qian

The last decades have witnessed the breakthrough of autonomous vehicles (AVs), and the perception capabilities of AVs have been dramatically improved. Various sensors installed on AVs, including, but are not limited to, LiDAR, radar, camera and stereovision, will be collecting massive data and perceiving the surrounding traffic states continuously. In fact, a fleet of AVs can serve as floating (or probe) sensors, which can be utilized to infer traffic information while cruising around the roadway networks. In contrast, conventional traffic sensing methods rely on fixed traffic sensors such as loop detectors, cameras and microwave vehicle detectors. Due to the high cost of conventional traffic sensors, traffic state data are usually obtained in a low-frequency and sparse manner. In view of this, this paper leverages rich data collected through AVs to propose the high-resolution traffic sensing framework. The proposed framework estimates the fundamental traffic state variables, namely, flow, density and speed in high spatio-temporal resolution, and it is developed under different levels of AV perception capabilities and low AV market penetration rate. The Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) data is adopted to examine the accuracy and robustness of the proposed framework. Experimental results show that the proposed estimation framework achieves high accuracy even with low AV market penetration rate. Sensitivity analysis regarding AV penetration rate, sensor configuration, and perception accuracy will also be studied. This study will help policymakers and private sectors (e.g Uber, Waymo) to understand the values of AVs, especially the values of massive data collected by AVs, in traffic operation and management.

Wei Ma, Xidong Pi, Sean Qian

Transportation networks are unprecedentedly complex with heterogeneous vehicular flow. Conventionally, vehicle classes are considered by vehicle classifications (such as standard passenger cars and trucks). However, vehicle flow heterogeneity stems from many other aspects in general, e.g., ride-sourcing vehicles versus personal vehicles, human driven vehicles versus connected and automated vehicles. Provided with some observations of vehicular flow for each class in a large-scale transportation network, how to estimate the multi-class spatio-temporal vehicular flow, in terms of time-varying Origin-Destination (OD) demand and path/link flow, remains a big challenge. This paper presents a solution framework for multi-class dynamic OD demand estimation (MCDODE) in large-scale networks. The proposed framework is built on a computational graph with tensor representations of spatio-temporal flow and all intermediate features involved in the MCDODE formulation. A forward-backward algorithm is proposed to efficiently solve the MCDODE formulation on computational graphs. In addition, we propose a novel concept of tree-based cumulative curves to estimate the gradient of OD demand. A Growing Tree algorithm is developed to construct tree-based cumulative curves. The proposed framework is examined on a small network as well as a real-world large-scale network. The experiment results indicate that the proposed framework is compelling, satisfactory and computationally plausible.

Shuguan Yang, Wei Ma, Xidong Pi et al.

A deep learning model is applied for predicting block-level parking occupancy in real time. The model leverages Graph-Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNN) to extract the spatial relations of traffic flow in large-scale networks, and utilizes Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) with Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to capture the temporal features. In addition, the model is capable of taking multiple heterogeneously structured traffic data sources as input, such as parking meter transactions, traffic speed, and weather conditions. The model performance is evaluated through a case study in Pittsburgh downtown area. The proposed model outperforms other baseline methods including multi-layer LSTM and Lasso with an average testing MAPE of 10.6\% when predicting block-level parking occupancies 30 minutes in advance. The case study also shows that, in generally, the prediction model works better for business areas than for recreational locations. We found that incorporating traffic speed and weather information can significantly improve the prediction performance. Weather data is particularly useful for improving predicting accuracy in recreational areas.