Jian Li

Hang Fan, Yu Shi, Zongliang Fu et al.

High-quality wind power forecasting is crucial for the operation of modern power grids. However, prevailing data-driven paradigms either train a site-specific model which cannot generalize to other locations or rely on fine-tuning of general-purpose time series foundation models which are difficult to incorporate domain-specific data in the energy sector. This paper introduces WindFM, a lightweight and generative Foundation Model designed specifically for probabilistic wind power forecasting. WindFM employs a discretize-and-generate framework. A specialized time-series tokenizer first converts continuous multivariate observations into discrete, hierarchical tokens. Subsequently, a decoder-only Transformer learns a universal representation of wind generation dynamics by autoregressively pre-training on these token sequences. Using the comprehensive WIND Toolkit dataset comprising approximately 150 billion time steps from more than 126,000 sites, WindFM develops a foundational understanding of the complex interplay between atmospheric conditions and power output. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our compact 8.1M parameter model achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on both deterministic and probabilistic tasks, outperforming specialized models and larger foundation models without any fine-tuning. In particular, WindFM exhibits strong adaptiveness under out-of-distribution data from a different continent, demonstrating the robustness and transferability of its learned representations. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/WindFM.

Zheyu Zhang, Tianping Zhang, Jian Li

Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) has achieved remarkable success in a wide variety of applications. The split finding algorithm, which determines the tree construction process, is one of the most crucial components of GBDT. However, the split finding algorithm has long been criticized for its bias towards features with a large number of potential splits. This bias introduces severe interpretability and overfitting issues in GBDT. To this end, we provide a fine-grained analysis of bias in GBDT and demonstrate that the bias originates from 1) the systematic bias in the gain estimation of each split and 2) the bias in the split finding algorithm resulting from the use of the same data to evaluate the split improvement and determine the best split. Based on the analysis, we propose unbiased gain, a new unbiased measurement of gain importance using out-of-bag samples. Moreover, we incorporate the unbiased property into the split finding algorithm and develop UnbiasedGBM to solve the overfitting issue of GBDT. We assess the performance of UnbiasedGBM and unbiased gain in a large-scale empirical study comprising 60 datasets and show that: 1) UnbiasedGBM exhibits better performance than popular GBDT implementations such as LightGBM, XGBoost, and Catboost on average on the 60 datasets and 2) unbiased gain achieves better average performance in feature selection than popular feature importance methods. The codes are available at https://github.com/ZheyuAqaZhang/UnbiasedGBM.

Guojun Xiong, Shufan Wang, Daniel Jiang et al.

Federated reinforcement learning (FedRL) enables multiple agents to collaboratively learn a policy without sharing their local trajectories collected during agent-environment interactions. However, in practice, the environments faced by different agents are often heterogeneous, leading to poor performance by the single policy learned by existing FedRL algorithms on individual agents. In this paper, we take a further step and introduce a \emph{personalized} FedRL framework (PFedRL) by taking advantage of possibly shared common structure among agents in heterogeneous environments. Specifically, we develop a class of PFedRL algorithms named PFedRL-Rep that learns (1) a shared feature representation collaboratively among all agents, and (2) an agent-specific weight vector personalized to its local environment. We analyze the convergence of PFedTD-Rep, a particular instance of the framework with temporal difference (TD) learning and linear representations. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to prove a linear convergence speedup with respect to the number of agents in the PFedRL setting. To achieve this, we show that PFedTD-Rep is an example of the federated two-timescale stochastic approximation with Markovian noise. Experimental results demonstrate that PFedTD-Rep, along with an extension to the control setting based on deep Q-networks (DQN), not only improve learning in heterogeneous settings, but also provide better generalization to new environments.

Hanfei Yu, Hao Wang, Jian Li et al.

Serverless computing automates fine-grained resource scaling and simplifies the development and deployment of online services with stateless functions. However, it is still non-trivial for users to allocate appropriate resources due to various function types, dependencies, and input sizes. Misconfiguration of resource allocations leaves functions either under-provisioned or over-provisioned and leads to continuous low resource utilization. This paper presents Freyr, a new resource manager (RM) for serverless platforms that maximizes resource efficiency by dynamically harvesting idle resources from over-provisioned functions to under-provisioned functions. Freyr monitors each function's resource utilization in real-time, detects over-provisioning and under-provisioning, and learns to harvest idle resources safely and accelerates functions efficiently by applying deep reinforcement learning algorithms along with a safeguard mechanism. We have implemented and deployed a Freyr prototype in a 13-node Apache OpenWhisk cluster. Experimental results show that 38.8% of function invocations have idle resources harvested by Freyr, and 39.2% of invocations are accelerated by the harvested resources. Freyr reduces the 99th-percentile function response latency by 32.1% compared to the baseline RMs.

Jian Li, Yong Liu, Weiping Wang

Vector-valued learning, where the output space admits a vector-valued structure, is an important problem that covers a broad family of important domains, e.g. multi-task learning and transfer learning. Using local Rademacher complexity and unlabeled data, we derive novel semi-supervised excess risk bounds for general vector-valued learning from both kernel perspective and linear perspective. The derived bounds are much sharper than existing ones and the convergence rates are improved from the square root of labeled sample size to the square root of total sample size or directly dependent on labeled sample size. Motivated by our theoretical analysis, we propose a general semi-supervised algorithm for efficiently learning vector-valued functions, incorporating both local Rademacher complexity and Laplacian regularization. Extensive experimental results illustrate the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms the compared methods, which coincides with our theoretical findings.

Jian Li, Yong Liu, Weiping Wang

In recent studies, the generalization properties for distributed learning and random features assumed the existence of the target concept over the hypothesis space. However, this strict condition is not applicable to the more common non-attainable case. In this paper, using refined proof techniques, we first extend the optimal rates for distributed learning with random features to the non-attainable case. Then, we reduce the number of required random features via data-dependent generating strategy, and improve the allowed number of partitions with additional unlabeled data. Theoretical analysis shows these techniques remarkably reduce computational cost while preserving the optimal generalization accuracy under standard assumptions. Finally, we conduct several experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets, and the empirical results validate our theoretical findings.