David B. Dunson

Steven Winter, Trevor Campbell, Lizhen Lin et al.

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty through the posterior distribution. Practical posterior computation is commonly performed via MCMC, which can be computationally infeasible for high dimensional models with many observations. In this article we discuss the potential to improve posterior computation using ideas from machine learning. Concrete future directions are explored in vignettes on normalizing flows, Bayesian coresets, distributed Bayesian inference, and variational inference.

Omar Melikechi, David B. Dunson

We introduce Cayley transform ellipsoid fitting (CTEF), an algorithm that uses the Cayley transform to fit ellipsoids to noisy data in any dimension. Unlike many ellipsoid fitting methods, CTEF is ellipsoid specific, meaning it always returns elliptic solutions, and can fit arbitrary ellipsoids. It also significantly outperforms other fitting methods when data are not uniformly distributed over the surface of an ellipsoid. Inspired by growing calls for interpretable and reproducible methods in machine learning, we apply CTEF to dimension reduction, data visualization, and clustering in the context of cell cycle and circadian rhythm data and several classical toy examples. Since CTEF captures global curvature, it extracts nonlinear features in data that other machine learning methods fail to identify. For example, on the clustering examples CTEF outperforms 10 popular algorithms.

Tao Tang, Simon Mak, David Dunson

In many areas of science and engineering, computer simulations are widely used as proxies for physical experiments, which can be infeasible or unethical. Such simulations can often be computationally expensive, and an emulator can be trained to efficiently predict the desired response surface. A widely-used emulator is the Gaussian process (GP), which provides a flexible framework for efficient prediction and uncertainty quantification. Standard GPs, however, do not capture structured sparsity on the underlying response surface, which is present in many applications, particularly in the physical sciences. We thus propose a new hierarchical shrinkage GP (HierGP), which incorporates such structure via cumulative shrinkage priors within a GP framework. We show that the HierGP implicitly embeds the well-known principles of effect sparsity, heredity and hierarchy for analysis of experiments, which allows our model to identify structured sparse features from the response surface with limited data. We propose efficient posterior sampling algorithms for model training and prediction, and prove desirable consistency properties for the HierGP. Finally, we demonstrate the improved performance of HierGP over existing models, in a suite of numerical experiments and an application to dynamical system recovery.

Duy H. Thai, Alexander L. Young, David B. Dunson

We develop a novel class of MCMC algorithms based on a stochastized Nesterov scheme. With an appropriate addition of noise, the result is a time-inhomogeneous underdamped Langevin equation, which we prove emits a specified target distribution as its invariant measure. Convergence rates to stationarity under Wasserstein-2 distance are established as well. Metropolis-adjusted and stochastic gradient versions of the proposed Langevin dynamics are also provided. Experimental illustrations show superior performance of the proposed method over typical Langevin samplers for different models in statistics and image processing including better mixing of the resulting Markov chains.

Edric Tam, David Dunson

We introduce Fiedler regularization, a novel approach for regularizing neural networks that utilizes spectral/graphical information. Existing regularization methods often focus on penalizing weights in a global/uniform manner that ignores the connectivity structure of the neural network. We propose to use the Fiedler value of the neural network's underlying graph as a tool for regularization. We provide theoretical motivation for this approach via spectral graph theory. We demonstrate several useful properties of the Fiedler value that make it useful as a regularization tool. We provide an approximate, variational approach for faster computation during training. We provide an alternative formulation of this framework in the form of a structurally weighted $\text{L}_1$ penalty, thus linking our approach to sparsity induction. We provide uniform generalization error bounds for Fiedler regularization via a Rademacher complexity analysis. We performed experiments on datasets that compare Fiedler regularization with classical regularization methods such as dropout and weight decay. Results demonstrate the efficacy of Fiedler regularization. This is a journal extension of the conference paper by Tam and Dunson (2020).

Theodore Papamarkou, Maria Skoularidou, Konstantina Palla et al.

In the current landscape of deep learning research, there is a predominant emphasis on achieving high predictive accuracy in supervised tasks involving large image and language datasets. However, a broader perspective reveals a multitude of overlooked metrics, tasks, and data types, such as uncertainty, active and continual learning, and scientific data, that demand attention. Bayesian deep learning (BDL) constitutes a promising avenue, offering advantages across these diverse settings. This paper posits that BDL can elevate the capabilities of deep learning. It revisits the strengths of BDL, acknowledges existing challenges, and highlights some exciting research avenues aimed at addressing these obstacles. Looking ahead, the discussion focuses on possible ways to combine large-scale foundation models with BDL to unlock their full potential.

Piotr M. Suder, Jason Xu, David B. Dunson

Transfer learning is a burgeoning concept in statistical machine learning that seeks to improve inference and/or predictive accuracy on a domain of interest by leveraging data from related domains. While the term "transfer learning" has garnered much recent interest, its foundational principles have existed for years under various guises. Prior literature reviews in computer science and electrical engineering have sought to bring these ideas into focus, primarily surveying general methodologies and works from these disciplines. This article highlights Bayesian approaches to transfer learning, which have received relatively limited attention despite their innate compatibility with the notion of drawing upon prior knowledge to guide new learning tasks. Our survey encompasses a wide range of Bayesian transfer learning frameworks applicable to a variety of practical settings. We discuss how these methods address the problem of finding the optimal information to transfer between domains, which is a central question in transfer learning. We illustrate the utility of Bayesian transfer learning methods via a simulation study where we compare performance against frequentist competitors.

Edric Tam, David B. Dunson

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

Edric Tam, David Dunson

Laplacian eigenvectors capture natural community structures on graphs and are widely used in spectral clustering and manifold learning. The use of Laplacian eigenvectors as embeddings for the purpose of multiscale graph comparison has however been limited. Here we propose the Embedded Laplacian Discrepancy (ELD) as a simple and fast approach to compare graphs (of potentially different sizes) based on the similarity of the graphs' community structures. The ELD operates by representing graphs as point clouds in a common, low-dimensional space, on which a natural Wasserstein-based distance can be efficiently computed. A main challenge in comparing graphs through any eigenvector-based approaches is the potential ambiguity that could arise due to sign-flips and basis symmetries. The ELD leverages a simple symmetrization trick to bypass any sign ambiguities. For comparing graphs that do not have any ambiguities due to basis symmetries (i.e. the spectrums are simple), we show that the ELD becomes a natural pseudo-metric that enjoys nice properties such as invariance under graph isomorphism. For comparing graphs with non-simple spectrums, we propose a procedure to approximate the ELD via a simple perturbation technique to resolve any ambiguity from basis symmetries. We show that such perturbations are stable using matrix perturbation theory under mild assumptions that are straightforward to verify in practice. We demonstrate the excellent applicability of the ELD approach on both simulated and real datasets.

David B Dunson, Nan Wu

It is often of interest to infer lower-dimensional structure underlying complex data. As a flexible class of non-linear structures, it is common to focus on Riemannian manifolds. Most existing manifold learning algorithms replace the original data with lower-dimensional coordinates without providing an estimate of the manifold or using the manifold to denoise the original data. This article proposes a new methodology to address these problems, allowing interpolation of the estimated manifold between the fitted data points. The proposed approach is motivated by the novel theoretical properties of local covariance matrices constructed from samples near a manifold. Our results enable us to turn a global manifold reconstruction problem into a local regression problem, allowing for the application of Gaussian processes for probabilistic manifold reconstruction. In addition to the theory justifying our methodology, we provide simulated and real data examples to illustrate the performance.

Ruda Zhang, Simon Mak, David Dunson

Subspace-valued functions arise in a wide range of problems, including parametric reduced order modeling (PROM). In PROM, each parameter point can be associated with a subspace, which is used for Petrov-Galerkin projections of large system matrices. Previous efforts to approximate such functions use interpolations on manifolds, which can be inaccurate and slow. To tackle this, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric model for subspace prediction: the Gaussian Process Subspace regression (GPS) model. This method is extrinsic and intrinsic at the same time: with multivariate Gaussian distributions on the Euclidean space, it induces a joint probability model on the Grassmann manifold, the set of fixed-dimensional subspaces. The GPS adopts a simple yet general correlation structure, and a principled approach for model selection. Its predictive distribution admits an analytical form, which allows for efficient subspace prediction over the parameter space. For PROM, the GPS provides a probabilistic prediction at a new parameter point that retains the accuracy of local reduced models, at a computational complexity that does not depend on system dimension, and thus is suitable for online computation. We give four numerical examples to compare our method to subspace interpolation, as well as two methods that interpolate local reduced models. Overall, GPS is the most data efficient, more computationally efficient than subspace interpolation, and gives smooth predictions with uncertainty quantification.

Sean Plummer, Shuang Zhou, Anirban Bhattacharya et al.

Transformation-based methods have been an attractive approach in non-parametric inference for problems such as unconditional and conditional density estimation due to their unique hierarchical structure that models the data as flexible transformation of a set of common latent variables. More recently, transformation-based models have been used in variational inference (VI) to construct flexible implicit families of variational distributions. However, their use in both non-parametric inference and variational inference lacks theoretical justification. We provide theoretical justification for the use of non-linear latent variable models (NL-LVMs) in non-parametric inference by showing that the support of the transformation induced prior in the space of densities is sufficiently large in the $L_1$ sense. We also show that, when a Gaussian process (GP) prior is placed on the transformation function, the posterior concentrates at the optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Adopting the flexibility demonstrated in the non-parametric setting, we use the NL-LVM to construct an implicit family of variational distributions, deemed GP-IVI. We delineate sufficient conditions under which GP-IVI achieves optimal risk bounds and approximates the true posterior in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on providing theoretical guarantees for implicit variational inference.

David B Dunson, Hau-Tieng Wu, Nan Wu

In nonparametric regression, it is common for the inputs to fall in a restricted subset of Euclidean space. Typical kernel-based methods that do not take into account the intrinsic geometry of the domain across which observations are collected may produce sub-optimal results. In this article, we focus on solving this problem in the context of Gaussian process (GP) models, proposing a new class of Graph Laplacian based GPs (GL-GPs), which learn a covariance that respects the geometry of the input domain. As the heat kernel is intractable computationally, we approximate the covariance using finitely-many eigenpairs of the Graph Laplacian (GL). The GL is constructed from a kernel which depends only on the Euclidean coordinates of the inputs. Hence, we can benefit from the full knowledge about the kernel to extend the covariance structure to newly arriving samples by a Nyström type extension. We provide substantial theoretical support for the GL-GP methodology, and illustrate performance gains in various applications.

Deborshee Sen, Theodore Papamarkou, David Dunson

In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown non-linear regression function; this includes Gaussian process latent variable models and variational auto-encoders (VAEs) as special cases. VAEs are artificial neural networks (ANNs) that employ approximations to make computation tractable; however, current implementations lack adequate uncertainty quantification in estimating the parameters, predictive densities, and lower-dimensional subspace, and can be unstable and lack interpretability in practice. We attempt to solve these problems by deploying Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms (MCMC) for Bayesian inference in ANN models with latent variables. We address issues of identifiability by imposing constraints on the ANN parameters as well as by using anchor points. This is demonstrated on simulated and real data examples. We find that current MCMC sampling schemes face fundamental challenges in neural networks involving latent variables, motivating new research directions.

Debolina Paul, Saptarshi Chakraborty, Didong Li et al.

Even with the rise in popularity of over-parameterized models, simple dimensionality reduction and clustering methods, such as PCA and k-means, are still routinely used in an amazing variety of settings. A primary reason is the combination of simplicity, interpretability and computational efficiency. The focus of this article is on improving upon PCA and k-means, by allowing non-linear relations in the data and more flexible cluster shapes, without sacrificing the key advantages. The key contribution is a new framework for Principal Elliptical Analysis (PEA), defining a simple and computationally efficient alternative to PCA that fits the best elliptical approximation through the data. We provide theoretical guarantees on the proposed PEA algorithm using Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) theory to show strong consistency and uniform concentration bounds. Toy experiments illustrate the performance of PEA, and the ability to adapt to non-linear structure and complex cluster shapes. In a rich variety of real data clustering applications, PEA is shown to do as well as k-means for simple datasets, while dramatically improving performance in more complex settings.

Sirio Legramanti, Tommaso Rigon, Daniele Durante et al.

Reliably learning group structures among nodes in network data is challenging in several applications. We are particularly motivated by studying covert networks that encode relationships among criminals. These data are subject to measurement errors, and exhibit a complex combination of an unknown number of core-periphery, assortative and disassortative structures that may unveil key architectures of the criminal organization. The coexistence of these noisy block patterns limits the reliability of routinely-used community detection algorithms, and requires extensions of model-based solutions to realistically characterize the node partition process, incorporate information from node attributes, and provide improved strategies for estimation and uncertainty quantification. To cover these gaps, we develop a new class of extended stochastic block models (ESBM) that infer groups of nodes having common connectivity patterns via Gibbs-type priors on the partition process. This choice encompasses many realistic priors for criminal networks, covering solutions with fixed, random and infinite number of possible groups, and facilitates the inclusion of node attributes in a principled manner. Among the new alternatives in our class, we focus on the Gnedin process as a realistic prior that allows the number of groups to be finite, random and subject to a reinforcement process coherent with criminal networks. A collapsed Gibbs sampler is proposed for the whole ESBM class, and refined strategies for estimation, prediction, uncertainty quantification and model selection are outlined. The ESBM performance is illustrated in realistic simulations and in an application to an Italian mafia network, where we unveil key complex block structures, mostly hidden from state-of-the-art alternatives.

Tommaso Rigon, Amy H. Herring, David B. Dunson

Loss-based clustering methods, such as k-means and its variants, are standard tools for finding groups in data. However, the lack of quantification of uncertainty in the estimated clusters is a disadvantage. Model-based clustering based on mixture models provides an alternative, but such methods face computational problems and large sensitivity to the choice of kernel. This article proposes a generalized Bayes framework that bridges between these two paradigms through the use of Gibbs posteriors. In conducting Bayesian updating, the log likelihood is replaced by a loss function for clustering, leading to a rich family of clustering methods. The Gibbs posterior represents a coherent updating of Bayesian beliefs without needing to specify a likelihood for the data, and can be used for characterizing uncertainty in clustering. We consider losses based on Bregman divergence and pairwise similarities, and develop efficient deterministic algorithms for point estimation along with sampling algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Several existing clustering algorithms, including k-means, can be interpreted as generalized Bayes estimators under our framework, and hence we provide a method of uncertainty quantification for these approaches.

Yichen Zhu, Cheng Li, David B. Dunson

Classification algorithms face difficulties when one or more classes have limited training data. We are particularly interested in classification trees, due to their interpretability and flexibility. When data are limited in one or more of the classes, the estimated decision boundaries are often irregularly shaped due to the limited sample size, leading to poor generalization error. We propose a novel approach that penalizes the Surface-to-Volume Ratio (SVR) of the decision set, obtaining a new class of SVR-Tree algorithms. We develop a simple and computationally efficient implementation while proving estimation consistency for SVR-Tree and rate of convergence for an idealized empirical risk minimizer of SVR-Tree. SVR-Tree is compared with multiple algorithms that are designed to deal with imbalance through real data applications.

Shounak Chattopadhyay, Antik Chakraborty, David B. Dunson

There is a rich literature on Bayesian methods for density estimation, which characterize the unknown density as a mixture of kernels. Such methods have advantages in terms of providing uncertainty quantification in estimation, while being adaptive to a rich variety of densities. However, relative to frequentist locally adaptive kernel methods, Bayesian approaches can be slow and unstable to implement in relying on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. To maintain most of the strengths of Bayesian approaches without the computational disadvantages, we propose a class of nearest neighbor-Dirichlet mixtures. The approach starts by grouping the data into neighborhoods based on standard algorithms. Within each neighborhood, the density is characterized via a Bayesian parametric model, such as a Gaussian with unknown parameters. Assigning a Dirichlet prior to the weights on these local kernels, we obtain a pseudo-posterior for the weights and kernel parameters. A simple and embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to sample from the resulting pseudo-posterior for the unknown density. Desirable asymptotic properties are shown, and the methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to a motivating data set in the context of classification.

Edric Tam, David Dunson

We introduce a novel regularization approach for deep learning that incorporates and respects the underlying graphical structure of the neural network. Existing regularization methods often focus on dropping/penalizing weights in a global manner that ignores the connectivity structure of the neural network. We propose to use the Fiedler value of the neural network's underlying graph as a tool for regularization. We provide theoretical support for this approach via spectral graph theory. We list several useful properties of the Fiedler value that makes it suitable in regularization. We provide an approximate, variational approach for fast computation in practical training of neural networks. We provide bounds on such approximations. We provide an alternative but equivalent formulation of this framework in the form of a structurally weighted L1 penalty, thus linking our approach to sparsity induction. We performed experiments on datasets that compare Fiedler regularization with traditional regularization methods such as dropout and weight decay. Results demonstrate the efficacy of Fiedler regularization.

Meimei Liu, David B. Dunson

When there is a distributional shift between data used to train a predictive algorithm and current data, performance can suffer. This is known as the domain adaptation problem. Bootstrap aggregating, or bagging, is a popular method for improving stability of predictive algorithms, while reducing variance and protecting against over-fitting. This article proposes a domain adaptive bagging method coupled with a new iterative nearest neighbor sampler. The key idea is to draw bootstrap samples from the training data in such a manner that their distribution equals that of new testing data. The proposed approach provides a general ensemble framework that can be applied to arbitrary classifiers. We further modify the method to allow anomalous samples in the test data corresponding to outliers in the training data. Theoretical support is provided, and the approach is compared to alternatives in simulations and real data applications.

Didong Li, David B Dunson

Classifiers label data as belonging to one of a set of groups based on input features. It is challenging to obtain accurate classification performance when the feature distributions in the different classes are complex, with nonlinear, overlapping and intersecting supports. This is particularly true when training data are limited. To address this problem, this article proposes a new type of classifier based on obtaining a local approximation to the support of the data within each class in a neighborhood of the feature to be classified, and assigning the feature to the class having the closest support. This general algorithm is referred to as LOcal Manifold Approximation (LOMA) classification. As a simple and theoretically supported special case having excellent performance in a broad variety of examples, we use spheres for local approximation, obtaining a SPherical Approximation (SPA) classifier. We illustrate substantial gains for SPA over competitors on a variety of challenging simulated and real data examples.

Rihui Ou, Deborshee Sen, Alexander L Young et al.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for hidden Markov models often rely on the forward-backward sampler. This makes them computationally slow as the length of the time series increases, motivating the development of sub-sampling-based approaches. These approximate the full posterior by using small random subsequences of the data at each MCMC iteration within stochastic gradient MCMC. In the presence of imbalanced data resulting from rare latent states, subsequences often exclude rare latent state data, leading to inaccurate inference and prediction/detection of rare events. We propose a targeted sub-sampling (TASS) approach that over-samples observations corresponding to rare latent states when calculating the stochastic gradient of parameters associated with them. TASS uses an initial clustering of the data to construct subsequence weights that reduce the variance in gradient estimation. This leads to improved sampling efficiency, in particular in settings where the rare latent states correspond to extreme observations. We demonstrate substantial gains in predictive and inferential accuracy on real and synthetic examples.

Leo L Duan, David B Dunson

Model-based clustering is widely-used in a variety of application areas. However, fundamental concerns remain about robustness. In particular, results can be sensitive to the choice of kernel representing the within-cluster data density. Leveraging on properties of pairwise differences between data points, we propose a class of Bayesian distance clustering methods, which rely on modeling the likelihood of the pairwise distances in place of the original data. Although some information in the data is discarded, we gain substantial robustness to modeling assumptions. The proposed approach represents an appealing middle ground between distance- and model-based clustering, drawing advantages from each of these canonical approaches. We illustrate dramatic gains in the ability to infer clusters that are not well represented by the usual choices of kernel. A simulation study is included to assess performance relative to competitors, and we apply the approach to clustering of brain genome expression data. Keywords: Distance-based clustering; Mixture model; Model-based clustering; Model misspecification; Pairwise distance matrix; Partial likelihood; Robustness.

Shaobo Han, David B. Dunson

This article is motivated by soccer positional passing networks collected across multiple games. We refer to these data as replicated spatial passing networks---to accurately model such data it is necessary to take into account the spatial positions of the passer and receiver for each passing event. This spatial registration and replicates that occur across games represent key differences with usual social network data. As a key step before investigating how the passing dynamics influence team performance, we focus on developing methods for summarizing different team's passing strategies. Our proposed approach relies on a novel multiresolution data representation framework and Poisson nonnegative block term decomposition model, which automatically produces coarse-to-fine low-rank network motifs. The proposed methods are applied to detailed passing record data collected from the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

Jun Lu, Meng Li, David Dunson

Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models tend to produce many small clusters regardless of whether they are needed to accurately characterize the data - this is particularly true for large data sets. However, interpretability, parsimony, data storage and communication costs all are hampered by having overly many clusters. We propose a powered Chinese restaurant process to limit this kind of problem and penalize over clustering. The method is illustrated using some simulation examples and data with large and small sample size including MNIST and the Old Faithful Geyser data.

Mu Niu, Pokman Cheung, Lizhen Lin et al.

We propose a class of intrinsic Gaussian processes (in-GPs) for interpolation, regression and classification on manifolds with a primary focus on complex constrained domains or irregular shaped spaces arising as subsets or submanifolds of R, R2, R3 and beyond. For example, in-GPs can accommodate spatial domains arising as complex subsets of Euclidean space. in-GPs respect the potentially complex boundary or interior conditions as well as the intrinsic geometry of the spaces. The key novelty of the proposed approach is to utilise the relationship between heat kernels and the transition density of Brownian motion on manifolds for constructing and approximating valid and computationally feasible covariance kernels. This enables in-GPs to be practically applied in great generality, while existing approaches for smoothing on constrained domains are limited to simple special cases. The broad utilities of the in-GP approach is illustrated through simulation studies and data examples.

Ivo D. Shterev, David B. Dunson, Cliburn Chan et al.

High throughput screening of compounds (chemicals) is an essential part of drug discovery [7], involving thousands to millions of compounds, with the purpose of identifying candidate hits. Most statistical tools, including the industry standard B-score method, work on individual compound plates and do not exploit cross-plate correlation or statistical strength among plates. We present a new statistical framework for high throughput screening of compounds based on Bayesian nonparametric modeling. The proposed approach is able to identify candidate hits from multiple plates simultaneously, sharing statistical strength among plates and providing more robust estimates of compound activity. It can flexibly accommodate arbitrary distributions of compound activities and is applicable to any plate geometry. The algorithm provides a principled statistical approach for hit identification and false discovery rate control. Experiments demonstrate significant improvements in hit identification sensitivity and specificity over the B-score method, which is highly sensitive to threshold choice. The framework is implemented as an efficient R extension package BHTSpack and is suitable for large scale data sets.

Didong Li, Minerva Mukhopadhyay, David B. Dunson

In statistical dimensionality reduction, it is common to rely on the assumption that high dimensional data tend to concentrate near a lower dimensional manifold. There is a rich literature on approximating the unknown manifold, and on exploiting such approximations in clustering, data compression, and prediction. Most of the literature relies on linear or locally linear approximations. In this article, we propose a simple and general alternative, which instead uses spheres, an approach we refer to as spherelets. We develop spherical principal components analysis (SPCA), and provide theory on the convergence rate for global and local SPCA, while showing that spherelets can provide lower covering numbers and MSEs for many manifolds. Results relative to state-of-the-art competitors show gains in ability to accurately approximate manifolds with fewer components. Unlike most competitors, which simply output lower-dimensional features, our approach projects data onto the estimated manifold to produce fitted values that can be used for model assessment and cross validation. The methods are illustrated with applications to multiple data sets.

Fangjian Guo, Xiangyu Wang, Kai Fan et al.

Variational inference (VI) provides fast approximations of a Bayesian posterior in part because it formulates posterior approximation as an optimization problem: to find the closest distribution to the exact posterior over some family of distributions. For practical reasons, the family of distributions in VI is usually constrained so that it does not include the exact posterior, even as a limit point. Thus, no matter how long VI is run, the resulting approximation will not approach the exact posterior. We propose to instead consider a more flexible approximating family consisting of all possible finite mixtures of a parametric base distribution (e.g., Gaussian). For efficient inference, we borrow ideas from gradient boosting to develop an algorithm we call boosting variational inference (BVI). BVI iteratively improves the current approximation by mixing it with a new component from the base distribution family and thereby yields progressively more accurate posterior approximations as more computing time is spent. Unlike a number of common VI variants including mean-field VI, BVI is able to capture multimodality, general posterior covariance, and nonstandard posterior shapes.

Shiwen Zhao, Barbara E. Engelhardt, Sayan Mukherjee et al.

We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for fast parameter estimation in a new class of Dirichlet latent variable models with mixed data types. Parameter estimation via GMM has been demonstrated to have computational and statistical advantages over alternative methods, such as expectation maximization, variational inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The key computational advan- tage of our method (MELD) is that parameter estimation does not require instantiation of the latent variables. Moreover, a representational advantage of the GMM approach is that the behavior of the model is agnostic to distributional assumptions of the observations. We derive population moment conditions after marginalizing out the sample-specific Dirichlet latent variables. The moment conditions only depend on component mean parameters. We illustrate the utility of our approach on simulated data, comparing results from MELD to alternative methods, and we show the promise of our approach through the application of MELD to several data sets.

Xiangyu Wang, David Dunson, Chenlei Leng

Fitting statistical models is computationally challenging when the sample size or the dimension of the dataset is huge. An attractive approach for down-scaling the problem size is to first partition the dataset into subsets and then fit using distributed algorithms. The dataset can be partitioned either horizontally (in the sample space) or vertically (in the feature space). While the majority of the literature focuses on sample space partitioning, feature space partitioning is more effective when $p\gg n$. Existing methods for partitioning features, however, are either vulnerable to high correlations or inefficient in reducing the model dimension. In this paper, we solve these problems through a new embarrassingly parallel framework named DECO for distributed variable selection and parameter estimation. In DECO, variables are first partitioned and allocated to $m$ distributed workers. The decorrelated subset data within each worker are then fitted via any algorithm designed for high-dimensional problems. We show that by incorporating the decorrelation step, DECO can achieve consistent variable selection and parameter estimation on each subset with (almost) no assumptions. In addition, the convergence rate is nearly minimax optimal for both sparse and weakly sparse models and does NOT depend on the partition number $m$. Extensive numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the performance of the new framework.

Shaobo Han, Xuejun Liao, David B. Dunson et al.

We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copula family is able to preserve multivariate posterior dependence, and the nonparametric transformations based on Bernstein polynomials provide ample flexibility in characterizing the univariate marginal posteriors.

Ye Wang, David B. Dunson

Learning of low dimensional structure in multidimensional data is a canonical problem in machine learning. One common approach is to suppose that the observed data are close to a lower-dimensional smooth manifold. There are a rich variety of manifold learning methods available, which allow mapping of data points to the manifold. However, there is a clear lack of probabilistic methods that allow learning of the manifold along with the generative distribution of the observed data. The best attempt is the Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM), but identifiability issues lead to poor performance. We solve these issues by proposing a novel Coulomb repulsive process (Corp) for locations of points on the manifold, inspired by physical models of electrostatic interactions among particles. Combining this process with a GP prior for the mapping function yields a novel electrostatic GP (electroGP) process. Focusing on the simple case of a one-dimensional manifold, we develop efficient inference algorithms, and illustrate substantially improved performance in a variety of experiments including filling in missing frames in video.

Xiangyu Wang, Fangjian Guo, Katherine A. Heller et al.

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and runs independent sampling algorithms on each subset. The subset posterior draws are then aggregated via some combining rules to obtain the final approximation. Existing EP-MCMC algorithms are limited by approximation accuracy and difficulty in resampling. In this article, we propose a new EP-MCMC algorithm PART that solves these problems. The new algorithm applies random partition trees to combine the subset posterior draws, which is distribution-free, easy to resample from and can adapt to multiple scales. We provide theoretical justification and extensive experiments illustrating empirical performance.

Yan Shang, David B. Dunson, Jing-Sheng Song

In cargo logistics, a key performance measure is transport risk, defined as the deviation of the actual arrival time from the planned arrival time. Neither earliness nor tardiness is desirable for customer and freight forwarders. In this paper, we investigate ways to assess and forecast transport risks using a half-year of air cargo data, provided by a leading forwarder on 1336 routes served by 20 airlines. Interestingly, our preliminary data analysis shows a strong multimodal feature in the transport risks, driven by unobserved events, such as cargo missing flights. To accommodate this feature, we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric model -- the probit stick-breaking process (PSBP) mixture model -- for flexible estimation of the conditional (i.e., state-dependent) density function of transport risk. We demonstrate that using simpler methods, such as OLS linear regression, can lead to misleading inferences. Our model provides a tool for the forwarder to offer customized price and service quotes. It can also generate baseline airline performance to enable fair supplier evaluation. Furthermore, the method allows us to separate recurrent risks from disruption risks. This is important, because hedging strategies for these two kinds of risks are often drastically different.

Xiangyu Wang, Peichao Peng, David Dunson

For massive data sets, efficient computation commonly relies on distributed algorithms that store and process subsets of the data on different machines, minimizing communication costs. Our focus is on regression and classification problems involving many features. A variety of distributed algorithms have been proposed in this context, but challenges arise in defining an algorithm with low communication, theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance in general settings. We propose a MEdian Selection Subset AGgregation Estimator (message) algorithm, which attempts to solve these problems. The algorithm applies feature selection in parallel for each subset using Lasso or another method, calculates the `median' feature inclusion index, estimates coefficients for the selected features in parallel for each subset, and then averages these estimates. The algorithm is simple, involves very minimal communication, scales efficiently in both sample and feature size, and has theoretical guarantees. In particular, we show model selection consistency and coefficient estimation efficiency. Extensive experiments show excellent performance in variable selection, estimation, prediction, and computation time relative to usual competitors.

Rajarshi Guhaniyogi, David B. Dunson

Nonparametric regression for massive numbers of samples (n) and features (p) is an increasingly important problem. In big n settings, a common strategy is to partition the feature space, and then separately apply simple models to each partition set. We propose an alternative approach, which avoids such partitioning and the associated sensitivity to neighborhood choice and distance metrics, by using random compression combined with Gaussian process regression. The proposed approach is particularly motivated by the setting in which the response is conditionally independent of the features given the projection to a low dimensional manifold. Conditionally on the random compression matrix and a smoothness parameter, the posterior distribution for the regression surface and posterior predictive distributions are available analytically. Running the analysis in parallel for many random compression matrices and smoothness parameters, model averaging is used to combine the results. The algorithm can be implemented rapidly even in very big n and p problems, has strong theoretical justification, and is found to yield state of the art predictive performance.

Stanislav Minsker, Sanvesh Srivastava, Lizhen Lin et al.

We propose a novel approach to Bayesian analysis that is provably robust to outliers in the data and often has computational advantages over standard methods. Our technique is based on splitting the data into non-overlapping subgroups, evaluating the posterior distribution given each independent subgroup, and then combining the resulting measures. The main novelty of our approach is the proposed aggregation step, which is based on the evaluation of a median in the space of probability measures equipped with a suitable collection of distances that can be quickly and efficiently evaluated in practice. We present both theoretical and numerical evidence illustrating the improvements achieved by our method.

Yun Yang, David B. Dunson

It is generally believed that ensemble approaches, which combine multiple algorithms or models, can outperform any single algorithm at machine learning tasks, such as prediction. In this paper, we propose Bayesian convex and linear aggregation approaches motivated by regression applications. We show that the proposed approach is minimax optimal when the true data-generating model is a convex or linear combination of models in the list. Moreover, the method can adapt to sparsity structure in which certain models should receive zero weights, and the method is tuning parameter free unlike competitors. More generally, under an M-open view when the truth falls outside the space of all convex/linear combinations, our theory suggests that the posterior measure tends to concentrate on the best approximation of the truth at the minimax rate. We illustrate the method through simulation studies and several applications.

Shaan Qamar, Rajarshi Guhaniyogi, David B. Dunson

We propose a Conditional Density Filtering (C-DF) algorithm for efficient online Bayesian inference. C-DF adapts MCMC sampling to the online setting, sampling from approximations to conditional posterior distributions obtained by propagating surrogate conditional sufficient statistics (a function of data and parameter estimates) as new data arrive. These quantities eliminate the need to store or process the entire dataset simultaneously and offer a number of desirable features. Often, these include a reduction in memory requirements and runtime and improved mixing, along with state-of-the-art parameter inference and prediction. These improvements are demonstrated through several illustrative examples including an application to high dimensional compressed regression. Finally, we show that C-DF samples converge to the target posterior distribution asymptotically as sampling proceeds and more data arrives.

Xiangyu Wang, David B. Dunson

With the rapidly growing scales of statistical problems, subset based communication-free parallel MCMC methods are a promising future for large scale Bayesian analysis. In this article, we propose a new Weierstrass sampler for parallel MCMC based on independent subsets. The new sampler approximates the full data posterior samples via combining the posterior draws from independent subset MCMC chains, and thus enjoys a higher computational efficiency. We show that the approximation error for the Weierstrass sampler is bounded by some tuning parameters and provide suggestions for choice of the values. Simulation study shows the Weierstrass sampler is very competitive compared to other methods for combining MCMC chains generated for subsets, including averaging and kernel smoothing.

Francesca Petralia, Joshua Vogelstein, David B. Dunson

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features.

Daniele Durante, David B. Dunson

Symmetric binary matrices representing relations among entities are commonly collected in many areas. Our focus is on dynamically evolving binary relational matrices, with interest being in inference on the relationship structure and prediction. We propose a nonparametric Bayesian dynamic model, which reduces dimensionality in characterizing the binary matrix through a lower-dimensional latent space representation, with the latent coordinates evolving in continuous time via Gaussian processes. By using a logistic mapping function from the probability matrix space to the latent relational space, we obtain a flexible and computational tractable formulation. Employing Pòlya-Gamma data augmentation, an efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for posterior computation, with the dimension of the latent space automatically inferred. We provide some theoretical results on flexibility of the model, and illustrate performance via simulation experiments. We also consider an application to co-movements in world financial markets.

David C. Kessler, Jack Taylor, David B. Dunson

Learning a distribution conditional on a set of discrete-valued features is a commonly encountered task. This becomes more challenging with a high-dimensional feature set when there is the possibility of interaction between the features. In addition, many frequently applied techniques consider only prediction of the mean, but the complete conditional density is needed to answer more complex questions. We demonstrate a novel nonparametric Bayes method based upon a tensor factorization of feature-dependent weights for Gaussian kernels. The method makes use of multistage feature selection for dimension reduction. The resulting conditional density morphs flexibly with the selected features.

Eric F. Lock, David B. Dunson

The task of clustering a set of objects based on multiple sources of data arises in several modern applications. We propose an integrative statistical model that permits a separate clustering of the objects for each data source. These separate clusterings adhere loosely to an overall consensus clustering, and hence they are not independent. We describe a computationally scalable Bayesian framework for simultaneous estimation of both the consensus clustering and the source-specific clusterings. We demonstrate that this flexible approach is more robust than joint clustering of all data sources, and is more powerful than clustering each data source separately. This work is motivated by the integrated analysis of heterogeneous biomedical data, and we present an application to subtype identification of breast cancer tumor samples using publicly available data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Software is available at http://people.duke.edu/~el113/software.html.

Daniele Durante, Bruno Scarpa, David B. Dunson

In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inferences and predictions, with over-smoothing across erratic time intervals and under-smoothing across times exhibiting slow variation. This can lead to mis-calibration of predictive intervals, which can be substantially too narrow or wide depending on the time. We propose a locally adaptive factor process for characterizing multivariate mean-covariance changes in continuous time, allowing locally varying smoothness in both the mean and covariance matrix. This process is constructed utilizing latent dictionary functions evolving in time through nested Gaussian processes and linearly related to the observed data with a sparse mapping. Using a differential equation representation, we bypass usual computational bottlenecks in obtaining MCMC and online algorithms for approximate Bayesian inference. The performance is assessed in simulations and illustrated in a financial application.

Emily B. Fox, David B. Dunson

We propose a multiresolution Gaussian process to capture long-range, non-Markovian dependencies while allowing for abrupt changes. The multiresolution GP hierarchically couples a collection of smooth GPs, each defined over an element of a random nested partition. Long-range dependencies are captured by the top-level GP while the partition points define the abrupt changes. Due to the inherent conjugacy of the GPs, one can analytically marginalize the GPs and compute the conditional likelihood of the observations given the partition tree. This property allows for efficient inference of the partition itself, for which we employ graph-theoretic techniques. We apply the multiresolution GP to the analysis of Magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings of brain activity.

Mingyuan Zhou, Lingbo Li, David Dunson et al.

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a lognormal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples.

Lauren Hannah, David Dunson

Convex regression is a promising area for bridging statistical estimation and deterministic convex optimization. New piecewise linear convex regression methods are fast and scalable, but can have instability when used to approximate constraints or objective functions for optimization. Ensemble methods, like bagging, smearing and random partitioning, can alleviate this problem and maintain the theoretical properties of the underlying estimator. We empirically examine the performance of ensemble methods for prediction and optimization, and then apply them to device modeling and constraint approximation for geometric programming based circuit design.