David Benkeser

Razieh Nabi, David Benkeser

This paper introduces a framework for estimating fair optimal predictions using machine learning where the notion of fairness can be quantified using path-specific causal effects. We use a recently developed approach based on Lagrange multipliers for infinite-dimensional functional estimation to derive closed-form solutions for constrained optimization based on mean squared error and cross-entropy risk criteria. The theoretical forms of the solutions are analyzed in detail and described as nuanced adjustments to the unconstrained minimizer. This analysis highlights important trade-offs between risk minimization and achieving fairnes. The theoretical solutions are also used as the basis for construction of flexible semiparametric estimation strategies for these nuisance components. We describe the robustness properties of our estimators in terms of achieving the optimal constrained risk, as well as in terms of controlling the value of the constraint. We study via simulation the impact of using robust estimators of pathway-specific effects to validate our theory. This work advances the discourse on algorithmic fairness by integrating complex causal considerations into model training, thus providing strategies for implementing fair models in real-world applications.

Wencheng Wu, David Benkeser

The estimation of the ratio of two density probability functions is of great interest in many statistics fields, including causal inference. In this study, we develop an ensemble estimator of density ratios with a novel loss function based on super learning. We show that this novel loss function is qualified for building super learners. Two simulations corresponding to mediation analysis and longitudinal modified treatment policy in causal inference, where density ratios are nuisance parameters, are conducted to show our density ratio super learner's performance empirically.

Ziyue Wu, David Benkeser

Complex distributions of the healthcare expenditure pose challenges to statistical modeling via a single model. Super learning, an ensemble method that combines a range of candidate models, is a promising alternative for cost estimation and has shown benefits over a single model. However, standard approaches to super learning may have poor performance in settings where extreme values are present, such as healthcare expenditure data. We propose a super learner based on the Huber loss, a "robust" loss function that combines squared error loss with absolute loss to down-weight the influence of outliers. We derive oracle inequalities that establish bounds on the finite-sample and asymptotic performance of the method. We show that the proposed method can be used both directly to optimize Huber risk, as well as in finite-sample settings where optimizing mean squared error is the ultimate goal. For this latter scenario, we provide two methods for performing a grid search for values of the robustification parameter indexing the Huber loss. Simulations and real data analysis demonstrate appreciable finite-sample gains in cost prediction and causal effect estimation using our proposed method.

Razieh Nabi, Nima S. Hejazi, Mark J. van der Laan et al.

We develop a general framework for estimating function-valued parameters under equality or inequality constraints in infinite-dimensional statistical models. Such constrained learning problems are common across many areas of statistics and machine learning, where estimated parameters must satisfy structural requirements such as moment restrictions, policy benchmarks, calibration criteria, or fairness considerations. To address these problems, we characterize the solution as the minimizer of a penalized population risk using a Lagrange-type formulation, and analyze it through a statistical functional lens. Central to our approach is a constraint-specific path through the unconstrained parameter space that defines the constrained solutions. For a broad class of constraint-risk pairs, this path admits closed-form expressions and reveals how constraints shape optimal adjustments. When closed forms are unavailable, we derive recursive representations that support tractable estimation. Our results also suggest natural estimators of the constrained parameter, constructed by combining estimates of unconstrained components of the data-generating distribution. Thus, our procedure can be integrated with any statistical learning approach and implemented using standard software. We provide general conditions under which the resulting estimators achieve optimal risk and constraint satisfaction, and we demonstrate the flexibility and effectiveness of the proposed method through various examples, simulations, and real-data applications.

David Benkeser

Understanding the pathways whereby an intervention has an effect on an outcome is a common scientific goal. A rich body of literature provides various decompositions of the total intervention effect into pathway specific effects. Interventional direct and indirect effects provide one such decomposition. Existing estimators of these effects are based on parametric models with confidence interval estimation facilitated via the nonparametric bootstrap. We provide theory that allows for more flexible, possibly machine learning-based, estimation techniques to be considered. In particular, we establish weak convergence results that facilitate the construction of closed-form confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. Finally, we demonstrate multiple robustness properties of the proposed estimators. Simulations show that inference based on large-sample theory has adequate small-sample performance. Our work thus provides a means of leveraging modern statistical learning techniques in estimation of interventional mediation effects.

Cheng Ju, David Benkeser, Mark J. van der Laan

Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or machine learning to estimate these quantities. However, optimal estimation of these regressions does not necessarily lead to optimal estimation of the average treatment effect, particularly in settings with strong instrumental variables. A recent proposal addressed these issues via the outcome-adaptive lasso, a penalized regression technique for estimating the propensity score that seeks to minimize the impact of instrumental variables on treatment effect estimators. However, a notable limitation of this approach is that its application is restricted to parametric models. We propose a more flexible alternative that we call the outcome highly adaptive lasso. We discuss large sample theory for this estimator and propose closed form confidence intervals based on the proposed estimator. We show via simulation that our method offers benefits over several popular approaches.