Max Hasin

Megan Kinniment, Lucas Jun Koba Sato, Haoxing Du et al.

In this report, we explore the ability of language model agents to acquire resources, create copies of themselves, and adapt to novel challenges they encounter in the wild. We refer to this cluster of capabilities as "autonomous replication and adaptation" or ARA. We believe that systems capable of ARA could have wide-reaching and hard-to-anticipate consequences, and that measuring and forecasting ARA may be useful for informing measures around security, monitoring, and alignment. Additionally, once a system is capable of ARA, placing bounds on a system's capabilities may become significantly more difficult. We construct four simple example agents that combine language models with tools that allow them to take actions in the world. We then evaluate these agents on 12 tasks relevant to ARA. We find that these language model agents can only complete the easiest tasks from this list, although they make some progress on the more challenging tasks. Unfortunately, these evaluations are not adequate to rule out the possibility that near-future agents will be capable of ARA. In particular, we do not think that these evaluations provide good assurance that the ``next generation'' of language models (e.g. 100x effective compute scaleup on existing models) will not yield agents capable of ARA, unless intermediate evaluations are performed during pretraining. Relatedly, we expect that fine-tuning of the existing models could produce substantially more competent agents, even if the fine-tuning is not directly targeted at ARA.

David Rein, Joel Becker, Amy Deng et al.

To understand and predict the societal impacts of highly autonomous AI systems, we need benchmarks with grounding, i.e., metrics that directly connect AI performance to real-world effects we care about. We present HCAST (Human-Calibrated Autonomy Software Tasks), a benchmark of 189 machine learning engineering, cybersecurity, software engineering, and general reasoning tasks. We collect 563 human baselines (totaling over 1500 hours) from people skilled in these domains, working under identical conditions as AI agents, which lets us estimate that HCAST tasks take humans between one minute and 8+ hours. Measuring the time tasks take for humans provides an intuitive metric for evaluating AI capabilities, helping answer the question "can an agent be trusted to complete a task that would take a human X hours?" We evaluate the success rates of AI agents built on frontier foundation models, and we find that current agents succeed 70-80% of the time on tasks that take humans less than one hour, and less than 20% of the time on tasks that take humans more than 4 hours.

Ahmad Idrissi-Yaghir, Amin Dada, Henning Schäfer et al.

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) can be largely attributed to the advent of pre-trained language models such as BERT and RoBERTa. While these models demonstrate remarkable performance on general datasets, they can struggle in specialized domains such as medicine, where unique domain-specific terminologies, domain-specific abbreviations, and varying document structures are common. This paper explores strategies for adapting these models to domain-specific requirements, primarily through continuous pre-training on domain-specific data. We pre-trained several German medical language models on 2.4B tokens derived from translated public English medical data and 3B tokens of German clinical data. The resulting models were evaluated on various German downstream tasks, including named entity recognition (NER), multi-label classification, and extractive question answering. Our results suggest that models augmented by clinical and translation-based pre-training typically outperform general domain models in medical contexts. We conclude that continuous pre-training has demonstrated the ability to match or even exceed the performance of clinical models trained from scratch. Furthermore, pre-training on clinical data or leveraging translated texts have proven to be reliable methods for domain adaptation in medical NLP tasks.