Enrico Zio

Yan-Fu Li, Enrico Zio

The current and future developments of electric power systems are pushing the boundaries of reliability assessment to consider distribution networks with renewable generators. Given the stochastic features of these elements, most modeling approaches rely on Monte Carlo simulation. The computational costs associated to the simulation approach force to treating mostly small-sized systems, i.e. with a limited number of lumped components of a given renewable technology (e.g. wind or solar, etc.) whose behavior is described by a binary state, working or failed. In this paper, we propose an analytical multi-state modeling approach for the reliability assessment of distributed generation (DG). The approach allows looking to a number of diverse energy generation technologies distributed on the system. Multiple states are used to describe the randomness in the generation units, due to the stochastic nature of the generation sources and of the mechanical degradation/failure behavior of the generation systems. The universal generating function (UGF) technique is used for the individual component multi-state modeling. A multiplication-type composition operator is introduced to combine the UGFs for the mechanical degradation and renewable generation source states into the UGF of the renewable generator power output. The overall multi-state DG system UGF is then constructed and classical reliability indices (e.g. loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS)) are computed from the DG system generation and load UGFs. An application of the model is shown on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder.

Yilin Wang, Yifei Yu, Kong Sun et al.

In industry, the reliability of rotating machinery is critical for production efficiency and safety. Current methods of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) often rely on task-specific models, which face significant challenges in handling diverse datasets with varying signal characteristics, fault modes and operating conditions. Inspired by advancements in generative pretrained models, we propose RmGPT, a unified model for diagnosis and prognosis tasks. RmGPT introduces a novel generative token-based framework, incorporating Signal Tokens, Prompt Tokens, Time-Frequency Task Tokens and Fault Tokens to handle heterogeneous data within a unified model architecture. We leverage self-supervised learning for robust feature extraction and introduce a next signal token prediction pretraining strategy, alongside efficient prompt learning for task-specific adaptation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RmGPT significantly outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms, achieving near-perfect accuracy in diagnosis tasks and exceptionally low errors in prognosis tasks. Notably, RmGPT excels in few-shot learning scenarios, achieving 82\% accuracy in 16-class one-shot experiments, highlighting its adaptability and robustness. This work establishes RmGPT as a powerful PHM foundation model for rotating machinery, advancing the scalability and generalizability of PHM solutions. \textbf{Code is available at: https://github.com/Pandalin98/RmGPT.

Saurabh Mishra, Anand Rao, Ramayya Krishnan et al.

As AI systems become integral to critical operations across industries and services, ensuring their reliability and safety is essential. We offer a framework that integrates established reliability and resilience engineering principles into AI systems. By applying traditional metrics such as failure rate and Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) along with resilience engineering and human reliability analysis, we propose an integrate framework to manage AI system performance, and prevent or efficiently recover from failures. Our work adapts classical engineering methods to AI systems and outlines a research agenda for future technical studies. We apply our framework to a real-world AI system, using system status data from platforms such as openAI, to demonstrate its practical applicability. This framework aligns with emerging global standards and regulatory frameworks, providing a methodology to enhance the trustworthiness of AI systems. Our aim is to guide policy, regulation, and the development of reliable, safe, and adaptable AI technologies capable of consistent performance in real-world environments.