Yuheng Lai

Yuheng Lai, Garvesh Raskutti

Conformal prediction is a framework that provides valid uncertainty quantification for general models with exchangeable data. However, in the online learning and time-series settings, exchangeability is not satisfied. Existing online conformal methods, such as adaptive conformal inference (ACI), can achieve long-run validity, yet they remain inefficient under covariate heterogeneity because they rely on global calibration. We propose \emph{Online Localized Conformal Prediction (OLCP)}, which combines online adaptation with covariate-dependent localization to better reflect heterogeneity. To reduce sensitivity to the localization bandwidth, we further develop \emph{OLCP-Hedge}, which performs bandwidth selection as an online expert aggregation problem using a constrained online convex optimization framework. Importantly, we provide coverage guarantees for both algorithms and demonstrate through simulations and real-data experiments that the proposed methods attain valid long-run coverage with narrower prediction sets than existing baselines.

Yuheng Lai, Leying Guan

$\textit{Equalized odds}$, an important notion of algorithmic fairness, aims to ensure that sensitive variables, such as race and gender, do not unfairly influence the algorithm's prediction when conditioning on the true outcome. Despite rapid advancements, current research primarily focuses on equalized odds violations caused by a single sensitive attribute, leaving the challenge of simultaneously accounting for multiple attributes under-addressed. We bridge this gap by introducing an in-processing fairness-aware learning approach, FairICP, which integrates adversarial learning with a novel inverse conditional permutation scheme. FairICP offers a flexible and efficient scheme to promote equalized odds under fairness conditions described by complex and multi-dimensional sensitive attributes. The efficacy and adaptability of our method are demonstrated through both simulation studies and empirical analyses of real-world datasets.