Fabrice Zaoui

Jean-Paul Travert, Cédric Goeury, Sébastien Boyaval et al.

Flood mapping and water depth estimation from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery are crucial for calibrating and validating hydraulic models. This study uses SAR imagery to evaluate various preprocessing (especially speckle noise reduction), flood mapping, and water depth estimation methods. The impact of the choice of method at different steps and its hyperparameters is studied by considering an ensemble of preprocessed images, flood maps, and water depth fields. The evaluation is conducted for two flood events on the Garonne River (France) in 2019 and 2021, using hydrodynamic simulations and in-situ observations as reference data. Results show that the choice of speckle filter alters flood extent estimations with variations of several square kilometers. Furthermore, the selection and tuning of flood mapping methods also affect performance. While supervised methods outperformed unsupervised ones, tuned unsupervised approaches (such as local thresholding or change detection) can achieve comparable results. The compounded uncertainty from preprocessing and flood mapping steps also introduces high variability in the water depth field estimates. This study highlights the importance of considering the entire processing pipeline, encompassing preprocessing, flood mapping, and water depth estimation methods and their associated hyperparameters. Rather than relying on a single configuration, adopting an ensemble approach and accounting for methodological uncertainty should be privileged. For flood mapping, the method choice has the most influence. For water depth estimation, the most influential processing step was the flood map input resulting from the flood mapping step and the hyperparameters of the methods.

Rem-Sophia Mouradi, Cédric Goeury, Olivier Thual et al.

Data assimilation (DA) is widely used to combine physical knowledge and observations. It is nowadays commonly used in geosciences to perform parametric calibration. In a context of climate change, old calibrations can not necessarily be used for new scenarios. This raises the question of DA computational cost, as costly physics-based numerical models need to be reanalyzed. Reduction and metamodelling represent therefore interesting perspectives, for example proposed in recent contributions as hybridization between ensemble and variational methods, to combine their advantages (efficiency, non-linear framework). They are however often based on Monte Carlo (MC) type sampling, which often requires considerable increase of the ensemble size for better efficiency, therefore representing a computational burden in ensemble-based methods as well. To address these issues, two methods to replace the complex model by a surrogate are proposed and confronted : (i) PODEn3DVAR directly inspired from PODEn4DVAR, relies on an ensemble-based joint parameter-state Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), which provides a linear metamodel ; (ii) POD-PCE-3DVAR, where the model states are POD reduced then learned using Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), resulting in a non-linear metamodel. Both metamodels allow to write an approximate cost function whose minimum can be analytically computed, or deduced by a gradient descent at negligible cost. Furthermore, adapted metamodelling error covariance matrix is given for POD-PCE-3DVAR, allowing to substantially improve the metamodel-based DA analysis. Proposed methods are confronted on a twin experiment, and compared to classical 3DVAR on a measurement-based problem. Results are promising, in particular superior with POD-PCE-3DVAR, showing good convergence to classical 3DVAR and robustness to noise.

Rem-Sophia Mouradi, Cédric Goeury, Olivier Thual et al.

In an ever-increasing interest for Machine Learning (ML) and a favorable data development context, we here propose an original methodology for data-based prediction of two-dimensional physical fields. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), widely used in the Uncertainty Quantification community (UQ), has long been employed as a robust representation for probabilistic input-to-output mapping. It has been recently tested in a pure ML context, and shown to be as powerful as classical ML techniques for point-wise prediction. Some advantages are inherent to the method, such as its explicitness and adaptability to small training sets, in addition to the associated probabilistic framework. Simultaneously, Dimensionality Reduction (DR) techniques are increasingly used for pattern recognition and data compression and have gained interest due to improved data quality. In this study, the interest of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) for the construction of a statistical predictive model is demonstrated. Both POD and PCE have amply proved their worth in their respective frameworks. The goal of the present paper was to combine them for a field-measurement-based forecasting. The described steps are also useful to analyze the data. Some challenging issues encountered when using multidimensional field measurements are addressed, for example when dealing with few data. The POD-PCE coupling methodology is presented, with particular focus on input data characteristics and training-set choice. A simple methodology for evaluating the importance of each physical parameter is proposed for the PCE model and extended to the POD-PCE coupling.