Doug Downey

Dany Haddad, Dan Bareket, Joseph Chee Chang et al.

AI-powered scientific research tools are rapidly being integrated into research workflows, yet the field lacks a clear lens into how researchers use these systems in real-world settings. We present and analyze the Asta Interaction Dataset, a large-scale resource comprising over 200,000 user queries and interaction logs from two deployed tools (a literature discovery interface and a scientific question-answering interface) within an LLM-powered retrieval-augmented generation platform. Using this dataset, we characterize query patterns, engagement behaviors, and how usage evolves with experience. We find that users submit longer and more complex queries than in traditional search, and treat the system as a collaborative research partner, delegating tasks such as drafting content and identifying research gaps. Users treat generated responses as persistent artifacts, revisiting and navigating among outputs and cited evidence in non-linear ways. With experience, users issue more targeted queries and engage more deeply with supporting citations, although keyword-style queries persist even among experienced users. We release the anonymized dataset and analysis with a new query intent taxonomy to inform future designs of real-world AI research assistants and to support realistic evaluation.

Anirudh Ajith, Amanpreet Singh, Jay DeYoung et al.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Peter Jansen, Peter Clark, Doug Downey et al.

Contemporary automated scientific discovery has focused on agents for generating scientific experiments, while systems that perform higher-level scientific activities such as theory building remain underexplored. In this work, we formulate the problem of synthesizing theories consisting of qualitative and quantitative laws from large corpora of scientific literature. We study theory generation at scale, using 13.7k source papers to synthesize 2.9k theories, examining how generation using literature-grounding versus parametric knowledge, and accuracy-focused versus novelty-focused generation objectives change theory properties. Our experiments show that, compared to using parametric LLM memory for generation, our literature-supported method creates theories that are significantly better at both matching existing evidence and at predicting future results from 4.6k subsequently-written papers