Richard A. Taylor

Nicholas Wan, Qiao Jin, Joey Chan et al.

Although large language models (LLMs) have been assessed for general medical knowledge using licensing exams, their ability to support clinical decision-making, such as selecting medical calculators, remains uncertain. We assessed nine LLMs, including open-source, proprietary, and domain-specific models, with 1,009 multiple-choice question-answer pairs across 35 clinical calculators and compared LLMs to humans on a subset of questions. While the highest-performing LLM, OpenAI o1, provided an answer accuracy of 66.0% (CI: 56.7-75.3%) on the subset of 100 questions, two human annotators nominally outperformed LLMs with an average answer accuracy of 79.5% (CI: 73.5-85.0%). Ultimately, we evaluated medical trainees and LLMs in recommending medical calculators across clinical scenarios like risk stratification and diagnosis. With error analysis showing that the highest-performing LLMs continue to make mistakes in comprehension (49.3% of errors) and calculator knowledge (7.1% of errors), our findings highlight that LLMs are not superior to humans in calculator recommendation.

Qiao Jin, Zhizheng Wang, Yifan Yang et al.

Clinical calculators play a vital role in healthcare by offering accurate evidence-based predictions for various purposes such as prognosis. Nevertheless, their widespread utilization is frequently hindered by usability challenges, poor dissemination, and restricted functionality. Augmenting large language models with extensive collections of clinical calculators presents an opportunity to overcome these obstacles and improve workflow efficiency, but the scalability of the manual curation process poses a significant challenge. In response, we introduce AgentMD, a novel language agent capable of curating and applying clinical calculators across various clinical contexts. Using the published literature, AgentMD has automatically curated a collection of 2,164 diverse clinical calculators with executable functions and structured documentation, collectively named RiskCalcs. Manual evaluations show that RiskCalcs tools achieve an accuracy of over 80% on three quality metrics. At inference time, AgentMD can automatically select and apply the relevant RiskCalcs tools given any patient description. On the newly established RiskQA benchmark, AgentMD significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting with GPT-4 (87.7% vs. 40.9% in accuracy). Additionally, we also applied AgentMD to real-world clinical notes for analyzing both population-level and risk-level patient characteristics. In summary, our study illustrates the utility of language agents augmented with clinical calculators for healthcare analytics and patient care.

Andrew J. Loza, Jun Yup Kim, Shangzheng Song et al.

Real-world processes often generate data that are a mix of categorical and numeric values that are recorded at irregular and informative intervals. Discrete token-based approaches are limited in numeric representation capacity while methods like neural ordinary differential equations are not well suited for categorical data or informative sampling and require augmentation to handle certain classes of trajectories. Here, we present multivariateGPT, a single architecture for modeling sequences of mixed categorical (including tokenized text) and numeric data. This is accomplished with an autoregressive sequence decomposition, embedding scheme, and loss function that extend the next token prediction task to likelihood estimation of the joint distribution of next token class and value. We demonstrate how this approach can efficiently learn to generalize patterns in simple physical systems and model complex time series including electrocardiograms and multivariate electronic health record data. This work extends the utility of transformer based models to additional classes of data.

Irene Li, Jessica Pan, Jeremy Goldwasser et al.

Electronic health records (EHRs), digital collections of patient healthcare events and observations, are ubiquitous in medicine and critical to healthcare delivery, operations, and research. Despite this central role, EHRs are notoriously difficult to process automatically. Well over half of the information stored within EHRs is in the form of unstructured text (e.g. provider notes, operation reports) and remains largely untapped for secondary use. Recently, however, newer neural network and deep learning approaches to Natural Language Processing (NLP) have made considerable advances, outperforming traditional statistical and rule-based systems on a variety of tasks. In this survey paper, we summarize current neural NLP methods for EHR applications. We focus on a broad scope of tasks, namely, classification and prediction, word embeddings, extraction, generation, and other topics such as question answering, phenotyping, knowledge graphs, medical dialogue, multilinguality, interpretability, etc.

David Chang, Ivana Balazevic, Carl Allen et al.

Much of biomedical and healthcare data is encoded in discrete, symbolic form such as text and medical codes. There is a wealth of expert-curated biomedical domain knowledge stored in knowledge bases and ontologies, but the lack of reliable methods for learning knowledge representation has limited their usefulness in machine learning applications. While text-based representation learning has significantly improved in recent years through advances in natural language processing, attempts to learn biomedical concept embeddings so far have been lacking. A recent family of models called knowledge graph embeddings have shown promising results on general domain knowledge graphs, and we explore their capabilities in the biomedical domain. We train several state-of-the-art knowledge graph embedding models on the SNOMED-CT knowledge graph, provide a benchmark with comparison to existing methods and in-depth discussion on best practices, and make a case for the importance of leveraging the multi-relational nature of knowledge graphs for learning biomedical knowledge representation. The embeddings, code, and materials will be made available to the communitY.

Nathan C. Hurley, Adrian D. Haimovich, R. Andrew Taylor et al.

Visual summarization of clinical data collected on patients contained within the electronic health record (EHR) may enable precise and rapid triage at the time of patient presentation to an emergency department (ED). The triage process is critical in the appropriate allocation of resources and in anticipating eventual patient disposition, typically admission to the hospital or discharge home. EHR data are high-dimensional and complex, but offer the opportunity to discover and characterize underlying data-driven patient phenotypes. These phenotypes will enable improved, personalized therapeutic decision making and prognostication. In this work, we focus on the challenge of two-dimensional patient projections. A low dimensional embedding offers visual interpretability lost in higher dimensions. While linear dimensionality reduction techniques such as principal component analysis are often used towards this aim, they are insufficient to describe the variance of patient data. In this work, we employ the newly-described non-linear embedding technique called uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP). UMAP seeks to capture both local and global structures in high-dimensional data. We then use Gaussian mixture models to identify clusters in the embedded data and use the adjusted Rand index (ARI) to establish stability in the discovery of these clusters. This technique is applied to five common clinical chief complaints from a real-world ED EHR dataset, describing the emergent properties of discovered clusters. We observe clinically-relevant cluster attributes, suggesting that visual embeddings of EHR data using non-linear dimensionality reduction is a promising approach to reveal data-driven patient phenotypes. In the five chief complaints, we find between 2 and 6 clusters, with the peak mean pairwise ARI between subsequent training iterations to range from 0.35 to 0.74.