A Benchmark of Classical and Deep Learning Models for Agricultural Commodity Price Forecasting on A Novel Bangladeshi Market Price DatasetTashreef Muhammad, Tahsin Ahmed, Meherun Farzana et al.
Accurate short-term forecasting of agricultural commodity prices is critical for food security planning and smallholder income stabilisation in developing economies, yet machine-learning-ready datasets for this purpose remain scarce in South Asia. This paper makes two contributions. First, we introduce AgriPriceBD, a benchmark dataset of 1,779 daily retail mid-prices for five Bangladeshi commodities - garlic, chickpea, green chilli, cucumber, and sweet pumpkin - spanning July 2020 to June 2025, extracted from government reports via an LLM-assisted digitisation pipeline. Second, we evaluate seven forecasting approaches spanning classical models - naïve persistence, SARIMA, and Prophet - and deep learning architectures - BiLSTM, Transformer, Time2Vec-enhanced Transformer, and Informer - with Diebold-Mariano statistical significance tests. Commodity price forecastability is fundamentally heterogeneous: naïve persistence dominates on near-random-walk commodities. Time2Vec temporal encoding provides no statistically significant advantage over fixed sinusoidal encoding and causes catastrophic degradation on green chilli (+146.1% MAE, p<0.001). Prophet fails systematically, attributable to discrete step-function price dynamics incompatible with its smooth decomposition assumptions. Informer produces erratic predictions (variance up to 50x ground-truth), confirming sparse-attention Transformers require substantially larger training sets than small agricultural datasets provide. All code, models, and data are released publicly to support replication and future forecasting research on agricultural commodity markets in Bangladesh and similar developing economies.
Interpretable histopathology-based prediction of disease relevant features in Inflammatory Bowel Disease biopsies using weakly-supervised deep learningRicardo Mokhtari, Azam Hamidinekoo, Daniel Sutton et al.
Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) are the two main Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) types. We developed deep learning models to identify histological disease features for both CD and UC using only endoscopic labels. We explored fine-tuning and end-to-end training of two state-of-the-art self-supervised models for predicting three different endoscopic categories (i) CD vs UC (AUC=0.87), (ii) normal vs lesional (AUC=0.81), (iii) low vs high disease severity score (AUC=0.80). We produced visual attention maps to interpret what the models learned and validated them with the support of a pathologist, where we observed a strong association between the models' predictions and histopathological inflammatory features of the disease. Additionally, we identified several cases where the model incorrectly predicted normal samples as lesional but were correct on the microscopic level when reviewed by the pathologist. This tendency of histological presentation to be more severe than endoscopic presentation was previously published in the literature. In parallel, we utilised a model trained on the Colon Nuclei Identification and Counting (CoNIC) dataset to predict and explore 6 cell populations. We observed correlation between areas enriched with the predicted immune cells in biopsies and the pathologist's feedback on the attention maps. Finally, we identified several cell level features indicative of disease severity in CD and UC. These models can enhance our understanding about the pathology behind IBD and can shape our strategies for patient stratification in clinical trials.