Noman Bashir

Noman Bashir, David Irwin, Prashant Shenoy et al.

The demand for computing is continuing to grow exponentially. This growth will translate to exponential growth in computing's energy consumption unless improvements in its energy-efficiency can outpace increases in its demand. Yet, after decades of research, further improving energy-efficiency is becoming increasingly challenging, as it is already highly optimized. As a result, at some point, increases in computing demand are likely to outpace increases in its energy-efficiency, potentially by a wide margin. Such exponential growth, if left unchecked, will position computing as a substantial contributor to global carbon emissions. While prominent technology companies have recognized the problem and sought to reduce their carbon emissions, they understandably focus on their successes, which has the potential to inadvertently convey the false impression that this is now, or will soon be, a solved problem. Such false impressions can be counterproductive if they serve to discourage further research in this area, since, as we discuss, eliminating computing's, and more generally society's, carbon emissions is far from a solved problem. To better understand the problem's scope, this paper distills the fundamental trends that determine computing's carbon footprint and their implications for achieving sustainable computing.

Adam Lechowicz, Nicolas Christianson, Bo Sun et al.

We introduce and study online conversion with switching costs, a family of online problems that capture emerging problems at the intersection of energy and sustainability. In this problem, an online player attempts to purchase (alternatively, sell) fractional shares of an asset during a fixed time horizon with length $T$. At each time step, a cost function (alternatively, price function) is revealed, and the player must irrevocably decide an amount of asset to convert. The player also incurs a switching cost whenever their decision changes in consecutive time steps, i.e., when they increase or decrease their purchasing amount. We introduce competitive (robust) threshold-based algorithms for both the minimization and maximization variants of this problem, and show they are optimal among deterministic online algorithms. We then propose learning-augmented algorithms that take advantage of untrusted black-box advice (such as predictions from a machine learning model) to achieve significantly better average-case performance without sacrificing worst-case competitive guarantees. Finally, we empirically evaluate our proposed algorithms using a carbon-aware EV charging case study, showing that our algorithms substantially improve on baseline methods for this problem.

Talha Mehboob, Noman Bashir, Jesus Omana Iglesias et al.

Federated Learning (FL) distributes machine learning (ML) training across edge devices to reduce data transfer overhead and protect data privacy. Since FL model training may span hundreds of devices and is thus resource- and energy-intensive, it has a significant carbon footprint. Importantly, since energy's carbon-intensity differs substantially (by up to 60$\times$) across locations, training on the same device using the same amount of energy, but at different locations, can incur widely different carbon emissions. While prior work has focused on improving FL's resource- and energy-efficiency by optimizing time-to-accuracy, it implicitly assumes all energy has the same carbon intensity and thus does not optimize carbon efficiency, i.e., work done per unit of carbon emitted. To address the problem, we design EcoLearn, which minimizes FL's carbon footprint without significantly affecting model accuracy or training time. EcoLearn achieves a favorable tradeoff by integrating carbon awareness into multiple aspects of FL training, including i) selecting clients with high data utility and low carbon, ii) provisioning more clients during the initial training rounds, and iii) mitigating stragglers by dynamically adjusting client over-provisioning based on carbon. We implement EcoLearn and its carbon-aware FL training policies in the Flower framework and show that it reduces the carbon footprint of training (by up to $10.8$$\times$) while maintaining model accuracy and training time (within $\sim$$1$\%) compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

Adam Lechowicz, Nicolas Christianson, Bo Sun et al.

We introduce and study spatiotemporal online allocation with deadline constraints ($\mathsf{SOAD}$), a new online problem motivated by emerging challenges in sustainability and energy. In $\mathsf{SOAD}$, an online player completes a workload by allocating and scheduling it on the points of a metric space $(X, d)$ while subject to a deadline $T$. At each time step, a service cost function is revealed that represents the cost of servicing the workload at each point, and the player must irrevocably decide the current allocation of work to points. Whenever the player moves this allocation, they incur a movement cost defined by the distance metric $d(\cdot, \ \cdot)$ that captures, e.g., an overhead cost. $\mathsf{SOAD}$ formalizes the open problem of combining general metrics and deadline constraints in the online algorithms literature, unifying problems such as metrical task systems and online search. We propose a competitive algorithm for $\mathsf{SOAD}$ along with a matching lower bound establishing its optimality. Our main algorithm, \textsc{ST-CLIP}, is a learning-augmented algorithm that takes advantage of predictions (e.g., forecasts of relevant costs) and achieves an optimal consistency-robustness trade-off. We evaluate our proposed algorithms in a simulated case study of carbon-aware spatiotemporal workload management, an application in sustainable computing that schedules a delay-tolerant batch compute job on a distributed network of data centers. In these experiments, we show that \textsc{ST-CLIP} substantially improves on heuristic baseline methods.

Noman Bashir, Rob Sherwood, Le Xie et al.

For over a century, the electric grid has relied on a single statistical assumption: \emph{load diversity}, the principle that the uncorrelated demands of millions of small consumers produce a smooth, predictable aggregate. AI training data centers break that assumption. A single hyperscale training campus can draw power comparable to a mid-sized city, driven by one tightly synchronized job whose demand swings by hundreds of megawatts in seconds. This paper argues that the resulting entanglement of compute and power infrastructure requires a shift from implicit coexistence to explicit co-development between the historically decoupled data center and electric power industries. We introduce the distinct design principles, operational philosophies, and economic incentives of each sector, and show why their cultural and technical misalignment makes coordination difficult. We identify key research directions, from joint capacity planning, multi-timescale control, a compute--power protocol stack, to market innovation, that must be pursued to power the future of AI sustainably and reliably.

Roozbeh Bostandoost, Adam Lechowicz, Walid A. Hanafy et al.

Motivated by an imperative to reduce the carbon emissions of cloud data centers, this paper studies the online carbon-aware resource scaling problem with unknown job lengths (OCSU) and applies it to carbon-aware resource scaling for executing computing workloads. The task is to dynamically scale resources (e.g., the number of servers) assigned to a job of unknown length such that it is completed before a deadline, with the objective of reducing the carbon emissions of executing the workload. The total carbon emissions of executing a job originate from the emissions of running the job and excess carbon emitted while switching between different scales (e.g., due to checkpoint and resume). Prior work on carbon-aware resource scaling has assumed accurate job length information, while other approaches have ignored switching losses and require carbon intensity forecasts. These assumptions prohibit the practical deployment of prior work for online carbon-aware execution of scalable computing workload. We propose LACS, a theoretically robust learning-augmented algorithm that solves OCSU. To achieve improved practical average-case performance, LACS integrates machine-learned predictions of job length. To achieve solid theoretical performance, LACS extends the recent theoretical advances on online conversion with switching costs to handle a scenario where the job length is unknown. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that, on average, the carbon footprint of LACS lies within 1.2% of the online baseline that assumes perfect job length information and within 16% of the offline baseline that, in addition to the job length, also requires accurate carbon intensity forecasts. Furthermore, LACS achieves a 32% reduction in carbon footprint compared to the deadline-aware carbon-agnostic execution of the job.

Adam Lechowicz, Nicolas Christianson, Bo Sun et al.

We introduce and study a family of online metric problems with long-term constraints. In these problems, an online player makes decisions $\mathbf{x}_t$ in a metric space $(X,d)$ to simultaneously minimize their hitting cost $f_t(\mathbf{x}_t)$ and switching cost as determined by the metric. Over the time horizon $T$, the player must satisfy a long-term demand constraint $\sum_{t} c(\mathbf{x}_t) \geq 1$, where $c(\mathbf{x}_t)$ denotes the fraction of demand satisfied at time $t$. Such problems can find a wide array of applications to online resource allocation in sustainable energy/computing systems. We devise optimal competitive and learning-augmented algorithms for the case of bounded hitting cost gradients and weighted $\ell_1$ metrics, and further show that our proposed algorithms perform well in numerical experiments.

Menghong Feng, Noman Bashir, Prashant Shenoy et al.

There has been significant growth in both utility-scale and residential-scale solar installations in recent years, driven by rapid technology improvements and falling prices. Unlike utility-scale solar farms that are professionally managed and maintained, smaller residential-scale installations often lack sensing and instrumentation for performance monitoring and fault detection. As a result, faults may go undetected for long periods of time, resulting in generation and revenue losses for the homeowner. In this paper, we present SunDown, a sensorless approach designed to detect per-panel faults in residential solar arrays. SunDown does not require any new sensors for its fault detection and instead uses a model-driven approach that leverages correlations between the power produced by adjacent panels to detect deviations from expected behavior. SunDown can handle concurrent faults in multiple panels and perform anomaly classification to determine probable causes. Using two years of solar generation data from a real home and a manually generated dataset of multiple solar faults, we show that our approach has a MAPE of 2.98\% when predicting per-panel output. Our results also show that SunDown is able to detect and classify faults, including from snow cover, leaves and debris, and electrical failures with 99.13% accuracy, and can detect multiple concurrent faults with 97.2% accuracy.