Kan Dai

Yu Wang, Yong Cao, Kan Dai et al.

Accurate extreme precipitation forecasting is critical for disaster mitigation but remains challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models due to systemic intensity underestimation and spatial displacement. Traditional precipitation multi-model blending algorithms perform pixel-by-pixel blending on the forecast field based on weights, which may lead to the expansion of precipitation areas and the smoothing of extreme values. This study proposes an U-Net based two-stage framework: probability classification followed by value reconstruction, to blend forecasts from six major NWP models. A novel station-grid joint supervision mechanism is introduced by integrating observations from 2411 national meteorological stations in China into the loss function, simultaneously constraining spatial structures and peak intensities. Evaluations using independent samples from the 2025 flood season demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms both individual NWPs and current operational products. For rainstorms (>=50 mm), the Threat Score (TS) improved by 38.4% compared to the best NWP. Notably, for extreme events (>=100 mm) driven by extratropical cyclones and the subtropical high, the model successfully elevated the TS to above 0.1, transforming forecasts from having negligible reference value into those with certain operational utility. Furthermore, the model exhibits data-driven spatial correction capabilities, effectively realigning systematic rainbelt displacements with actual precipitation centers. The inclusion of station observations specifically enhanced the TS for rainstorms by 10.4% and effectively balanced the Bias. These results highlight the efficacy of multi-source joint supervision in enhancing the capture of extreme precipitation events.

Tao Han, Song Guo, Fenghua Ling et al.

Kilometer-scale modeling of global atmosphere dynamics enables fine-grained weather forecasting and decreases the risk of disastrous weather and climate activity. Therefore, building a kilometer-scale global forecast model is a persistent pursuit in the meteorology domain. Active international efforts have been made in past decades to improve the spatial resolution of numerical weather models. Nonetheless, developing the higher resolution numerical model remains a long-standing challenge due to the substantial consumption of computational resources. Recent advances in data-driven global weather forecasting models utilize reanalysis data for model training and have demonstrated comparable or even higher forecasting skills than numerical models. However, they are all limited by the resolution of reanalysis data and incapable of generating higher-resolution forecasts. This work presents FengWu-GHR, the first data-driven global weather forecasting model running at the 0.09$^{\circ}$ horizontal resolution. FengWu-GHR introduces a novel approach that opens the door for operating ML-based high-resolution forecasts by inheriting prior knowledge from a pretrained low-resolution model. The hindcast of weather prediction in 2022 indicates that FengWu-GHR is superior to the IFS-HRES. Furthermore, evaluations on station observations and case studies of extreme events support the competitive operational forecasting skill of FengWu-GHR at the high resolution.