Matthew Malloy

Heguang Lin, Mengze Li, Daniel Pimentel-Alarcón et al.

Computation of confidence sets is central to data science and machine learning, serving as the workhorse of A/B testing and underpinning the operation and analysis of reinforcement learning algorithms. This paper studies the geometry of the minimum-volume confidence sets for the multinomial parameter. When used in place of more standard confidence sets and intervals based on bounds and asymptotic approximation, learning algorithms can exhibit improved sample complexity. Prior work showed the minimum-volume confidence sets are the level-sets of a discontinuous function defined by an exact p-value. While the confidence sets are optimal in that they have minimum average volume, computation of membership of a single point in the set is challenging for problems of modest size. Since the confidence sets are level-sets of discontinuous functions, little is apparent about their geometry. This paper studies the geometry of the minimum volume confidence sets by enumerating and covering the continuous regions of the exact p-value function. This addresses a fundamental question in A/B testing: given two multinomial outcomes, how can one determine if their corresponding minimum volume confidence sets are disjoint? We answer this question in a restricted setting.

Matthew L. Malloy, Ardhendu Tripathy, Robert D. Nowak

Construction of tight confidence regions and intervals is central to statistical inference and decision making. This paper develops new theory showing minimum average volume confidence regions for categorical data. More precisely, consider an empirical distribution $\widehat{\boldsymbol{p}}$ generated from $n$ iid realizations of a random variable that takes one of $k$ possible values according to an unknown distribution $\boldsymbol{p}$. This is analogous to a single draw from a multinomial distribution. A confidence region is a subset of the probability simplex that depends on $\widehat{\boldsymbol{p}}$ and contains the unknown $\boldsymbol{p}$ with a specified confidence. This paper shows how one can construct minimum average volume confidence regions, answering a long standing question. We also show the optimality of the regions directly translates to optimal confidence intervals of linear functionals such as the mean, implying sample complexity and regret improvements for adaptive machine learning algorithms.

Matthew L. Malloy, Scott Alfeld, Paul Barford

Identifying anomalies and contamination in datasets is important in a wide variety of settings. In this paper, we describe a new technique for estimating contamination in large, discrete valued datasets. Our approach considers the normal condition of the data to be specified by a model consisting of a set of distributions. Our key contribution is in our approach to contamination estimation. Specifically, we develop a technique that identifies the minimum number of data points that must be discarded (i.e., the level of contamination) from an empirical data set in order to match the model to within a specified goodness-of-fit, controlled by a p-value. Appealing to results from large deviations theory, we show a lower bound on the level of contamination is obtained by solving a series of convex programs. Theoretical results guarantee the bound converges at a rate of $O(\sqrt{\log(p)/p})$, where p is the size of the empirical data set.

Kevin Jamieson, Matthew Malloy, Robert Nowak et al.

The paper proposes a novel upper confidence bound (UCB) procedure for identifying the arm with the largest mean in a multi-armed bandit game in the fixed confidence setting using a small number of total samples. The procedure cannot be improved in the sense that the number of samples required to identify the best arm is within a constant factor of a lower bound based on the law of the iterated logarithm (LIL). Inspired by the LIL, we construct our confidence bounds to explicitly account for the infinite time horizon of the algorithm. In addition, by using a novel stopping time for the algorithm we avoid a union bound over the arms that has been observed in other UCB-type algorithms. We prove that the algorithm is optimal up to constants and also show through simulations that it provides superior performance with respect to the state-of-the-art.

Matthew L. Malloy, Robert D. Nowak

This paper proposes a simple adaptive sensing and group testing algorithm for sparse signal recovery. The algorithm, termed Compressive Adaptive Sense and Search (CASS), is shown to be near-optimal in that it succeeds at the lowest possible signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) levels, improving on previous work in adaptive compressed sensing. Like traditional compressed sensing based on random non-adaptive design matrices, the CASS algorithm requires only k log n measurements to recover a k-sparse signal of dimension n. However, CASS succeeds at SNR levels that are a factor log n less than required by standard compressed sensing. From the point of view of constructing and implementing the sensing operation as well as computing the reconstruction, the proposed algorithm is substantially less computationally intensive than standard compressed sensing. CASS is also demonstrated to perform considerably better in practice through simulation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of an adaptive compressed sensing algorithm with near-optimal theoretical guarantees and excellent practical performance. This paper also shows that methods like compressed sensing, group testing, and pooling have an advantage beyond simply reducing the number of measurements or tests -- adaptive versions of such methods can also improve detection and estimation performance when compared to non-adaptive direct (uncompressed) sensing.

Kevin Jamieson, Matthew Malloy, Robert Nowak et al.

Sampling from distributions to find the one with the largest mean arises in a broad range of applications, and it can be mathematically modeled as a multi-armed bandit problem in which each distribution is associated with an arm. This paper studies the sample complexity of identifying the best arm (largest mean) in a multi-armed bandit problem. Motivated by large-scale applications, we are especially interested in identifying situations where the total number of samples that are necessary and sufficient to find the best arm scale linearly with the number of arms. We present a single-parameter multi-armed bandit model that spans the range from linear to superlinear sample complexity. We also give a new algorithm for best arm identification, called PRISM, with linear sample complexity for a wide range of mean distributions. The algorithm, like most exploration procedures for multi-armed bandits, is adaptive in the sense that the next arms to sample are selected based on previous samples. We compare the sample complexity of adaptive procedures with simpler non-adaptive procedures using new lower bounds. For many problem instances, the increased sample complexity required by non-adaptive procedures is a polynomial factor of the number of arms.

Matthew L. Malloy, Gongguo Tang, Robert D. Nowak

This paper studies the sample complexity of searching over multiple populations. We consider a large number of populations, each corresponding to either distribution P0 or P1. The goal of the search problem studied here is to find one population corresponding to distribution P1 with as few samples as possible. The main contribution is to quantify the number of samples needed to correctly find one such population. We consider two general approaches: non-adaptive sampling methods, which sample each population a predetermined number of times until a population following P1 is found, and adaptive sampling methods, which employ sequential sampling schemes for each population. We first derive a lower bound on the number of samples required by any sampling scheme. We then consider an adaptive procedure consisting of a series of sequential probability ratio tests, and show it comes within a constant factor of the lower bound. We give explicit expressions for this constant when samples of the populations follow Gaussian and Bernoulli distributions. An alternative adaptive scheme is discussed which does not require full knowledge of P1, and comes within a constant factor of the optimal scheme. For comparison, a lower bound on the sampling requirements of any non-adaptive scheme is presented.