Jiaxiang Dong

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Haoran Zhang et al.

Time series analysis is widely used in extensive areas. Recently, to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various tasks, self-supervised pre-training has attracted immense interest. One mainstream paradigm is masked modeling, which successfully pre-trains deep models by learning to reconstruct the masked content based on the unmasked part. However, since the semantic information of time series is mainly contained in temporal variations, the standard way of randomly masking a portion of time points will seriously ruin vital temporal variations of time series, making the reconstruction task too difficult to guide representation learning. We thus present SimMTM, a Simple pre-training framework for Masked Time-series Modeling. By relating masked modeling to manifold learning, SimMTM proposes to recover masked time points by the weighted aggregation of multiple neighbors outside the manifold, which eases the reconstruction task by assembling ruined but complementary temporal variations from multiple masked series. SimMTM further learns to uncover the local structure of the manifold, which is helpful for masked modeling. Experimentally, SimMTM achieves state-of-the-art fine-tuning performance compared to the most advanced time series pre-training methods in two canonical time series analysis tasks: forecasting and classification, covering both in- and cross-domain settings.

Yuxuan Wang, Haixu Wu, Jiaxiang Dong et al.

Deep models have demonstrated remarkable performance in time series forecasting. However, due to the partially-observed nature of real-world applications, solely focusing on the target of interest, so-called endogenous variables, is usually insufficient to guarantee accurate forecasting. Notably, a system is often recorded into multiple variables, where the exogenous variables can provide valuable external information for endogenous variables. Thus, unlike well-established multivariate or univariate forecasting paradigms that either treat all the variables equally or ignore exogenous information, this paper focuses on a more practical setting: time series forecasting with exogenous variables. We propose a novel approach, TimeXer, to ingest external information to enhance the forecasting of endogenous variables. With deftly designed embedding layers, TimeXer empowers the canonical Transformer with the ability to reconcile endogenous and exogenous information, where patch-wise self-attention and variate-wise cross-attention are used simultaneously. Moreover, global endogenous tokens are learned to effectively bridge the causal information underlying exogenous series into endogenous temporal patches. Experimentally, TimeXer achieves consistent state-of-the-art performance on twelve real-world forecasting benchmarks and exhibits notable generality and scalability. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimeXer.

Jiaxiang Dong, Haixu Wu, Yuxuan Wang et al.

Time series pre-training has recently garnered wide attention for its potential to reduce labeling expenses and benefit various downstream tasks. Prior methods are mainly based on pre-training techniques well-acknowledged in vision or language, such as masked modeling and contrastive learning. However, randomly masking time series or calculating series-wise similarity will distort or neglect inherent temporal correlations crucial in time series data. To emphasize temporal correlation modeling, this paper proposes TimeSiam as a simple but effective self-supervised pre-training framework for Time series based on Siamese networks. Concretely, TimeSiam pre-trains Siamese encoders to capture intrinsic temporal correlations between randomly sampled past and current subseries. With a simple data augmentation method (e.g.~masking), TimeSiam can benefit from diverse augmented subseries and learn internal time-dependent representations through a past-to-current reconstruction. Moreover, learnable lineage embeddings are also introduced to distinguish temporal distance between sampled series and further foster the learning of diverse temporal correlations. TimeSiam consistently outperforms extensive advanced pre-training baselines, demonstrating superior forecasting and classification capabilities across 13 standard benchmarks in both intra- and cross-domain scenarios.