Xiaocheng Li

Zhongze Cai, Hanzhao Wang, Kalyan Talluri et al. · mit

Choice modeling has been a central topic in the study of individual preference or utility across many fields including economics, marketing, operations research, and psychology. While the vast majority of the literature on choice models has been devoted to the analytical properties that lead to managerial and policy-making insights, the existing methods to learn a choice model from empirical data are often either computationally intractable or sample inefficient. In this paper, we develop deep learning-based choice models under two settings of choice modeling: (i) feature-free and (ii) feature-based. Our model captures both the intrinsic utility for each candidate choice and the effect that the assortment has on the choice probability. Synthetic and real data experiments demonstrate the performances of proposed models in terms of the recovery of the existing choice models, sample complexity, assortment effect, architecture design, and model interpretation.

Hanzhao Wang, Zhongze Cai, Xiaocheng Li et al. · mit

Discrete-choice models are used in economics, marketing and revenue management to predict customer purchase probabilities, say as a function of prices and other features of the offered assortment. While they have been shown to be expressive, capturing customer heterogeneity and behaviour, they are also hard to estimate, often based on many unobservables like utilities; and moreover, they still fail to capture many salient features of customer behaviour. A natural question then, given their success in other contexts, is if neural networks can eliminate the necessity of carefully building a context-dependent customer behaviour model and hand-coding and tuning the estimation. It is unclear however how one would incorporate assortment effects into such a neural network, and also how one would optimize the assortment with such a black-box generative model of choice probabilities. In this paper we investigate first whether a single neural network architecture can predict purchase probabilities for datasets from various contexts and generated under various models and assumptions. Next, we develop an assortment optimization formulation that is solvable by off-the-shelf integer programming solvers. We compare against a variety of benchmark discrete-choice models on simulated as well as real-world datasets, developing training tricks along the way to make the neural network prediction and subsequent optimization robust and comparable in performance to the alternates.

Xiaocheng Li, Shang Liu, Chunlin Sun et al. · mit

Learning with rejection has been a prototypical model for studying the human-AI interaction on prediction tasks. Upon the arrival of a sample instance, the model first uses a rejector to decide whether to accept and use the AI predictor to make a prediction or reject and defer the sample to humans. Learning such a model changes the structure of the original loss function and often results in undesirable non-convexity and inconsistency issues. For the classification with rejection problem, several works develop consistent surrogate losses for the joint learning of the predictor and the rejector, while there have been fewer works for the regression counterpart. This paper studies the regression with rejection (RwR) problem and investigates a no-rejection learning strategy that uses all the data to learn the predictor. We first establish the consistency for such a strategy under the weak realizability condition. Then for the case without the weak realizability, we show that the excessive risk can also be upper bounded with the sum of two parts: prediction error and calibration error. Lastly, we demonstrate the advantage of such a proposed learning strategy with empirical evidence.

Hanzhao Wang, Xiaocheng Li, Kalyan Talluri · mit

A number of products are sold in the following sequence: First a focal product is shown, and if the customer purchases, one or more ancillary products are displayed for purchase. A prominent example is the sale of an airline ticket, where first the flight is shown, and when chosen, a number of ancillaries such as cabin or hold bag options, seat selection, insurance etc. are presented. The firm has to decide on a sale format -- whether to sell them in sequence unbundled, or together as a bundle -- and how to price the focal and ancillary products, separately or as a bundle. Since the ancillary is considered by the customer only after the purchase of the focal product, the sale strategy chosen by the firm creates an information and learning dependency between the products: for instance, offering only a bundle would preclude learning customers' valuation for the focal and ancillary products individually. In this paper we study learning strategies for such focal and ancillary item combinations under the following scenarios: (a) pure unbundling to all customers, (b) personalized mechanism, where, depending on some observed features of the customers, the two products are presented and priced as a bundle or in sequence, (c) initially unbundling (for all customers), and switch to bundling (if more profitable) permanently once during the horizon. We design pricing and decisions algorithms for all three scenarios, with regret upper bounded by $O(d \sqrt{T} \log T)$, and an optimal switching time for the third scenario.

Shang Liu, Jiashuo Jiang, Xiaocheng Li

In this paper, we study the problem of bandits with knapsacks (BwK) in a non-stationary environment. The BwK problem generalizes the multi-arm bandit (MAB) problem to model the resource consumption associated with playing each arm. At each time, the decision maker/player chooses to play an arm, and s/he will receive a reward and consume certain amount of resource from each of the multiple resource types. The objective is to maximize the cumulative reward over a finite horizon subject to some knapsack constraints on the resources. Existing works study the BwK problem under either a stochastic or adversarial environment. Our paper considers a non-stationary environment which continuously interpolates between these two extremes. We first show that the traditional notion of variation budget is insufficient to characterize the non-stationarity of the BwK problem for a sublinear regret due to the presence of the constraints, and then we propose a new notion of global non-stationarity measure. We employ both non-stationarity measures to derive upper and lower bounds for the problem. Our results are based on a primal-dual analysis of the underlying linear programs and highlight the interplay between the constraints and the non-stationarity. Finally, we also extend the non-stationarity measure to the problem of online convex optimization with constraints and obtain new regret bounds accordingly.

Hanzhao Wang, Xiaocheng Li, Kalyan Talluri

Discrete-choice models, such as Multinomial Logit, Probit, or Mixed-Logit, are widely used in Marketing, Economics, and Operations Research: given a set of alternatives, the customer is modeled as choosing one of the alternatives to maximize a (latent) utility function. However, extending such models to situations where the customer chooses more than one item (such as in e-commerce shopping) has proven problematic. While one can construct reasonable models of the customer's behavior, estimating such models becomes very challenging because of the combinatorial explosion in the number of possible subsets of items. In this paper we develop a transformer neural network architecture, the Transformer Choice Net, that is suitable for predicting multiple choices. Transformer networks turn out to be especially suitable for this task as they take into account not only the features of the customer and the items but also the context, which in this case could be the assortment as well as the customer's past choices. On a range of benchmark datasets, our architecture shows uniformly superior out-of-sample prediction performance compared to the leading models in the literature, without requiring any custom modeling or tuning for each instance.

Shang Liu, Xiaocheng Li

Uncertainty sampling is a prevalent active learning algorithm that queries sequentially the annotations of data samples which the current prediction model is uncertain about. However, the usage of uncertainty sampling has been largely heuristic: (i) There is no consensus on the proper definition of "uncertainty" for a specific task under a specific loss; (ii) There is no theoretical guarantee that prescribes a standard protocol to implement the algorithm, for example, how to handle the sequentially arrived annotated data under the framework of optimization algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent. In this work, we systematically examine uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based active learning. We propose a notion of equivalent loss which depends on the used uncertainty measure and the original loss function and establish that an uncertainty sampling algorithm essentially optimizes against such an equivalent loss. The perspective verifies the properness of existing uncertainty measures from two aspects: surrogate property and loss convexity. Furthermore, we propose a new notion for designing uncertainty measures called \textit{loss as uncertainty}. The idea is to use the conditional expected loss given the features as the uncertainty measure. Such an uncertainty measure has nice analytical properties and generality to cover both classification and regression problems, which enable us to provide the first generalization bound for uncertainty sampling algorithms under both stream-based and pool-based settings, in the full generality of the underlying model and problem. Lastly, we establish connections between certain variants of the uncertainty sampling algorithms with risk-sensitive objectives and distributional robustness, which can partly explain the advantage of uncertainty sampling algorithms when the sample size is small.

Chunlin Sun, Shang Liu, Xiaocheng Li

In this paper, we study the predict-then-optimize problem where the output of a machine learning prediction task is used as the input of some downstream optimization problem, say, the objective coefficient vector of a linear program. The problem is also known as predictive analytics or contextual linear programming. The existing approaches largely suffer from either (i) optimization intractability (a non-convex objective function)/statistical inefficiency (a suboptimal generalization bound) or (ii) requiring strong condition(s) such as no constraint or loss calibration. We develop a new approach to the problem called \textit{maximum optimality margin} which designs the machine learning loss function by the optimality condition of the downstream optimization. The max-margin formulation enjoys both computational efficiency and good theoretical properties for the learning procedure. More importantly, our new approach only needs the observations of the optimal solution in the training data rather than the objective function, which makes it a new and natural approach to the inverse linear programming problem under both contextual and context-free settings; we also analyze the proposed method under both offline and online settings, and demonstrate its performance using numerical experiments.

Guanting Chen, Xiaocheng Li, Chunlin Sun et al.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems play an increasingly prominent role in human decision-making, challenges surface in the realm of human-AI interactions. One challenge arises from the suboptimal AI policies due to the inadequate consideration of humans disregarding AI recommendations, as well as the need for AI to provide advice selectively when it is most pertinent. This paper presents a sequential decision-making model that (i) takes into account the human's adherence level (the probability that the human follows/rejects machine advice) and (ii) incorporates a defer option so that the machine can temporarily refrain from making advice. We provide learning algorithms that learn the optimal advice policy and make advice only at critical time stamps. Compared to problem-agnostic reinforcement learning algorithms, our specialized learning algorithms not only enjoy better theoretical convergence properties but also show strong empirical performance.

Moqi Zhang, Weihui Deng, Xiaocheng Li

With the development of streaming media technology, increasing communication relies on sound and visual information, which puts a massive burden on online media. Data compression becomes increasingly important to reduce the volume of data transmission and storage. To further improve the efficiency of image compression, researchers utilize various image processing methods to compensate for the limitations of conventional codecs and advanced learning-based compression methods. Instead of modifying the image compression oriented approaches, we propose a unified image compression preprocessing framework, called Kuchen, which aims to further improve the performance of existing codecs. The framework consists of a hybrid data labeling system along with a learning-based backbone to simulate personalized preprocessing. As far as we know, this is the first exploration of setting a unified preprocessing benchmark in image compression tasks. Results demonstrate that the modern codecs optimized by our unified preprocessing framework constantly improve the efficiency of the state-of-the-art compression.

Linyu Liu, Zhen Dai, Shiji Song et al.

Electrifying heavy-duty trucks offers a substantial opportunity to curtail carbon emissions, advancing toward a carbon-neutral future. However, the inherent challenges of limited battery energy and the sheer weight of heavy-duty trucks lead to reduced mileage and prolonged charging durations. Consequently, battery-swapping services emerge as an attractive solution for these trucks. This paper employs a two-fold approach to investigate the potential and enhance the efficacy of such services. Firstly, spatial-temporal demand prediction models are adopted to predict the traffic patterns for the upcoming hours. Subsequently, the prediction guides an optimization module for efficient battery allocation and deployment. Analyzing the heavy-duty truck data on a highway network spanning over 2,500 miles, our model and analysis underscore the value of prediction/machine learning in facilitating future decision-makings. In particular, we find that the initial phase of implementing battery-swapping services favors mobile battery-swapping stations, but as the system matures, fixed-location stations are preferred.

Kyung Rok Kim, Yansong Wang, Xiaocheng Li et al.

With the recent rise of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), the need of selecting high-quality dataset to improve machine learning models has garnered increasing attention. However, some part of this topic remains underexplored, even for simple prediction models. In this work, we study the problem of developing practical algorithms that select appropriate dataset to minimize population loss of our prediction model with high probability. Broadly speaking, we investigate when datasets from different sources can be effectively merged to enhance the predictive model's performance, and propose a practical algorithm with theoretical guarantees. By leveraging an oracle inequality and data-driven estimators, the algorithm reduces population loss with high probability. Numerical experiments demonstrate its effectiveness in both standard linear regression and broader machine learning applications. Code is available at https://github.com/kkrokii/collaborative_prediction.

Andrey Vasilyev, Yikai Wang, Xiaocheng Li et al.

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Linyu Liu, Yu Pan, Xiaocheng Li et al.

In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty estimation and calibration for LLMs. We begin by formulating the uncertainty estimation problem, a relevant yet underexplored area in existing literature. We then propose a supervised approach that leverages labeled datasets to estimate the uncertainty in LLMs' responses. Based on the formulation, we illustrate the difference between the uncertainty estimation for LLMs and that for standard ML models and explain why the hidden neurons of the LLMs may contain uncertainty information. Our designed approach demonstrates the benefits of utilizing hidden activations to enhance uncertainty estimation across various tasks and shows robust transferability in out-of-distribution settings. We distinguish the uncertainty estimation task from the uncertainty calibration task and show that better uncertainty estimation leads to better calibration performance. Furthermore, our method is easy to implement and adaptable to different levels of model accessibility including black box, grey box, and white box.

Shang Liu, Hanzhao Wang, Zhongyao Ma et al.

Human-annotated preference data play an important role in aligning large language models (LLMs). In this paper, we investigate the questions of assessing the performance of human annotators and incentivizing them to provide high-quality annotations. The quality assessment of language/text annotation faces two challenges: (i) the intrinsic heterogeneity among annotators, which prevents the classic methods that assume the underlying existence of a true label; and (ii) the unclear relationship between the annotation quality and the performance of downstream tasks, which excludes the possibility of inferring the annotators' behavior based on the model performance trained from the annotation data. Then we formulate a principal-agent model to characterize the behaviors of and the interactions between the company and the human annotators. The model rationalizes a practical mechanism of a bonus scheme to incentivize annotators which benefits both parties and it underscores the importance of the joint presence of an assessment system and a proper contract scheme. From a technical perspective, our analysis extends the existing literature on the principal-agent model by considering a continuous action space for the agent. We show the gap between the first-best and the second-best solutions (under the continuous action space) is of $Θ(1/\sqrt{n \log n})$ for the binary contracts and $Θ(1/n)$ for the linear contracts, where $n$ is the number of samples used for performance assessment; this contrasts with the known result of $\exp(-Θ(n))$ for the binary contracts when the action space is discrete. Throughout the paper, we use real preference annotation data to accompany our discussions.

Shang Liu, Yu Pan, Guanting Chen et al.

Learning a reward model (RM) from human preferences has been an important component in aligning large language models (LLMs). The canonical setup of learning RMs from pairwise preference data is rooted in the classic Bradley-Terry (BT) model that accepts binary feedback, i.e., the label being either Response 1 is better than Response 2, or the opposite. Such a setup inevitably discards potentially useful samples (such as "tied" between the two responses) and loses more fine-grained information (such as "slightly better"). In this paper, we propose a framework for learning RMs under ordinal feedback which generalizes the case of binary preference feedback to any arbitrary granularity. Specifically, we first identify a marginal unbiasedness condition, which generalizes the assumption of the BT model in the existing binary feedback setting. The condition validates itself via the sociological concept of the wisdom of the crowd. Under the condition, we develop a natural probability model for pairwise preference data under ordinal feedback and analyze its properties. We prove the statistical benefits of ordinal feedback in terms of reducing the Rademacher complexity compared to the case of binary feedback. The proposed learning objective and the theory also extend to hinge loss and direct policy optimization (DPO). In particular, the theoretical analysis may be of independent interest when applying to a seemingly unrelated problem of knowledge distillation to interpret the bias-variance trade-off therein. The framework also sheds light on writing guidance for human annotators. Our numerical experiments validate that fine-grained feedback leads to better reward learning for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings. Further experiments show that incorporating a certain proportion of samples with tied preference boosts RM learning.

Hanzhao Wang, Yu Pan, Fupeng Sun et al.

In this paper, we consider the supervised pre-trained transformer for a class of sequential decision-making problems. The class of considered problems is a subset of the general formulation of reinforcement learning in that there is no transition probability matrix; though seemingly restrictive, the subset class of problems covers bandits, dynamic pricing, and newsvendor problems as special cases. Such a structure enables the use of optimal actions/decisions in the pre-training phase, and the usage also provides new insights for the training and generalization of the pre-trained transformer. We first note the training of the transformer model can be viewed as a performative prediction problem, and the existing methods and theories largely ignore or cannot resolve an out-of-distribution issue. We propose a natural solution that includes the transformer-generated action sequences in the training procedure, and it enjoys better properties both numerically and theoretically. The availability of the optimal actions in the considered tasks also allows us to analyze the properties of the pre-trained transformer as an algorithm and explains why it may lack exploration and how this can be automatically resolved. Numerically, we categorize the advantages of pre-trained transformers over the structured algorithms such as UCB and Thompson sampling into three cases: (i) it better utilizes the prior knowledge in the pre-training data; (ii) it can elegantly handle the misspecification issue suffered by the structured algorithms; (iii) for short time horizon such as $T\le50$, it behaves more greedy and enjoys much better regret than the structured algorithms designed for asymptotic optimality.

Shang Liu, Zhongze Cai, Hanzhao Wang et al.

Human-annotated data plays a vital role in training large language models (LLMs), such as supervised fine-tuning and human preference alignment. However, it is not guaranteed that paid human annotators produce high-quality data. In this paper, we study how to incentivize human annotators to do so. We start from a principal-agent model to model the dynamics between the company (the principal) and the annotator (the agent), where the principal can only monitor the annotation quality by examining $n$ samples. We investigate the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding hypothesis testing to incentivize annotators: the agent is given a bonus if the MLE passes the test. By analyzing the variance of the outcome, we show that the strategic behavior of the agent makes the hypothesis testing very different from traditional ones: Unlike the exponential rate proved by the large deviation theory, the principal-agent model's hypothesis testing rate is of $Θ(1/\sqrt{n \log n})$. Our theory implies two criteria for the \emph{golden questions} to monitor the performance of the annotators: they should be of (1) high certainty and (2) similar format to normal ones. In that light, we select a set of golden questions in human preference data. By doing incentive-compatible experiments, we find out that the annotators' behavior is better revealed by those golden questions, compared to traditional survey techniques such as instructed manipulation checks.

Ziyi Wei, Huaiyang Zhong, Xiaocheng Li

We address the problem of multi-group mean estimation, which seeks to allocate a finite sampling budget across multiple groups to obtain uniformly accurate estimates of their means. Unlike classical multi-armed bandits, whose objective is to minimize regret by identifying and exploiting the best arm, the optimal allocation in this setting requires sampling every group on the order of $Θ(T)$ times. This fundamental distinction makes exploration-free algorithms both natural and effective. Our work makes three contributions. First, we strengthen the existing results on subgaussian variance concentration using the Hanson-Wright inequality and identify a class of strictly subgaussian distributions that yield sharper guarantees. Second, we design exploration-free non-adaptive and adaptive algorithms, and we establish tighter regret bounds than the existing results. Third, we extend the framework to contextual bandit settings, an underexplored direction, and propose algorithms that leverage side information with provable guarantees. Overall, these results position exploration-free allocation as a principled and efficient approach to multi-group mean estimation, with potential applications in experimental design, personalization, and other domains requiring accurate multi-group inference.

Zhongze Cai, Xiaocheng Li

Pairwise preference data have played an important role in the alignment of large language models (LLMs). Each sample of such data consists of a prompt, two different responses to the prompt, and a binary label indicating which of the two responses is better. The labels are usually annotated by professional human annotators. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach to collect pairwise preference data -- user annotation from comparison mode. With the increasingly wider adoption of LLMs among the population, users are contributing more and more of their preference labels through their daily interactions with the LLMs. The upside of such labels is that users are the best experts in judging the responses to their own queries/prompts, but the downside is the lack of quality control in these labels. In this paper, we consider a new idea of generating two responses from two different models or two different versions of the same model. The asymmetry allows us to make an inference of the user's data quality through our proposed user behavior model. We develop an expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate a latent quality factor of the user, and filter users' annotation data accordingly. The downstream task shows the effectiveness of our approach in both capturing the user behavior and data filtering for LLM alignment.

Yikai Wang, Xiaocheng Li, Guanting Chen

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for decision-making tasks under uncertainty; however, their risk profiles and how they are influenced by prompting and alignment methods remain underexplored. Existing studies have primarily examined personality prompting or multi-agent interactions, leaving open the question of how post-training influences the risk behavior of LLMs. In this work, we propose a new pipeline for eliciting, steering, and modulating LLMs' risk profiles, drawing on tools from behavioral economics and finance. Using utility-theoretic models, we compare pre-trained, instruction-tuned, and RLHF-aligned LLMs, and find that while instruction-tuned models exhibit behaviors consistent with some standard utility formulations, pre-trained and RLHF-aligned models deviate more from any utility models fitted. We further evaluate modulation strategies, including prompt engineering, in-context learning, and post-training, and show that post-training provides the most stable and effective modulation of risk preference. Our findings provide insights into the risk profiles of different classes and stages of LLMs and demonstrate how post-training modulates these profiles, laying the groundwork for future research on behavioral alignment and risk-aware LLM design.

Hanzhao Wang, Guanting Chen, Kalyan Talluri et al.

We build a Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) model from scratch to solve sequential decision making tasks arising in contexts of operations research and management science which we call OMGPT. We first propose a general sequence modeling framework to cover several operational decision making tasks as special cases, such as dynamic pricing, inventory management, resource allocation, and queueing control. Under the framework, all these tasks can be viewed as a sequential prediction problem where the goal is to predict the optimal future action given all the historical information. Then we train a transformer-based neural network model (OMGPT) as a natural and powerful architecture for sequential modeling. This marks a paradigm shift compared to the existing methods for these OR/OM tasks in that (i) the OMGPT model can take advantage of the huge amount of pre-trained data; (ii) when tackling these problems, OMGPT does not assume any analytical model structure and enables a direct and rich mapping from the history to the future actions. Either of these two aspects, to the best of our knowledge, is not achieved by any existing method. We establish a Bayesian perspective to theoretically understand the working mechanism of the OMGPT on these tasks, which relates its performance with the pre-training task diversity and the divergence between the testing task and pre-training tasks. Numerically, we observe a surprising performance of the proposed model across all the above tasks.

Zhongze Cai, Shang Liu, Hanzhao Wang et al.

In this paper, we study the problem of watermarking large language models (LLMs). We consider the trade-off between model distortion and detection ability and formulate it as a constrained optimization problem based on the green-red algorithm of Kirchenbauer et al. (2023a). We show that the optimal solution to the optimization problem enjoys a nice analytical property which provides a better understanding and inspires the algorithm design for the watermarking process. We develop an online dual gradient ascent watermarking algorithm in light of this optimization formulation and prove its asymptotic Pareto optimality between model distortion and detection ability. Such a result guarantees an averaged increased green list probability and henceforth detection ability explicitly (in contrast to previous results). Moreover, we provide a systematic discussion on the choice of the model distortion metrics for the watermarking problem. We justify our choice of KL divergence and present issues with the existing criteria of ``distortion-free'' and perplexity. Finally, we empirically evaluate our algorithms on extensive datasets against benchmark algorithms.

Shang Liu, Zhongze Cai, Xiaocheng Li

In this paper, we consider the uncertainty quantification problem for regression models. Specifically, we consider an individual calibration objective for characterizing the quantiles of the prediction model. While such an objective is well-motivated from downstream tasks such as newsvendor cost, the existing methods have been largely heuristic and lack of statistical guarantee in terms of individual calibration. We show via simple examples that the existing methods focusing on population-level calibration guarantees such as average calibration or sharpness can lead to harmful and unexpected results. We propose simple nonparametric calibration methods that are agnostic of the underlying prediction model and enjoy both computational efficiency and statistical consistency. Our approach enables a better understanding of the possibility of individual calibration, and we establish matching upper and lower bounds for the calibration error of our proposed methods. Technically, our analysis combines the nonparametric analysis with a covering number argument for parametric analysis, which advances the existing theoretical analyses in the literature of nonparametric density estimation and quantile bandit problems. Importantly, the nonparametric perspective sheds new theoretical insights into regression calibration in terms of the curse of dimensionality and reconciles the existing results on the impossibility of individual calibration. To our knowledge, we make the first effort to reach both individual calibration and finite-sample guarantee with minimal assumptions in terms of conformal prediction. Numerical experiments show the advantage of such a simple approach under various metrics, and also under covariates shift. We hope our work provides a simple benchmark and a starting point of theoretical ground for future research on regression calibration.

Hanzhao Wang, Kalyan Talluri, Xiaocheng Li

We consider dynamic pricing with covariates under a generalized linear demand model: a seller can dynamically adjust the price of a product over a horizon of $T$ time periods, and at each time period $t$, the demand of the product is jointly determined by the price and an observable covariate vector $x_t\in\mathbb{R}^d$ through a generalized linear model with unknown co-efficients. Most of the existing literature assumes the covariate vectors $x_t$'s are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.); the few papers that relax this assumption either sacrifice model generality or yield sub-optimal regret bounds. In this paper, we show that UCB and Thompson sampling-based pricing algorithms can achieve an $O(d\sqrt{T}\log T)$ regret upper bound without assuming any statistical structure on the covariates $x_t$. Our upper bound on the regret matches the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. We thus show that (i) the i.i.d. assumption is not necessary for obtaining low regret, and (ii) the regret bound can be independent of the (inverse) minimum eigenvalue of the covariance matrix of the $x_t$'s, a quantity present in previous bounds. Moreover, we consider a constrained setting of the dynamic pricing problem where there is a limited and unreplenishable inventory and we develop theoretical results that relate the best achievable algorithm performance to a variation measure with respect to the temporal distribution shift of the covariates. We also discuss conditions under which a better regret is achievable and demonstrate the proposed algorithms' performance with numerical experiments.

Guanting Chen, Xiaocheng Li, Yinyu Ye

In this paper, we consider an online resource allocation problem where a decision maker accepts or rejects incoming customer requests irrevocably in order to maximize expected reward given limited resources. At each time, a new order/customer/bid is revealed with a request of some resource(s) and a reward. We consider a stochastic setting where all the orders are i.i.d. sampled from an unknown distribution. Such formulation arises from many classic applications such as the canonical (quantity-based) network revenue management problem and the Adwords problem. While the literature on the topic mainly focuses on regret minimization, our paper considers the \textit{fairness} aspect of the problem. On a high level, we define the fairness in a way that a fair online algorithm should treat similar agents/customers similarly, and the decision made for similar agents/customers should be consistent over time. To achieve this goal, we define the fair offline solution as the analytic center of the offline optimal solution set, and introduce \textit{cumulative unfairness} as the cumulative deviation from the online solutions to the fair offline solution over time. We propose a fair algorithm based on an interior-point LP solver and a mechanism that dynamically detects unfair resource spending. Our algorithm achieves cumulative unfairness on the scale of order $O(\log(T))$, while maintains the regret to be bounded without dependency on $T$. In addition, compared to the literature, our result is produced under less restrictive assumptions on the degeneracy of the underlying linear program.

Xiaocheng Li, Chunlin Sun, Yinyu Ye

In this paper, we study the bandits with knapsacks (BwK) problem and develop a primal-dual based algorithm that achieves a problem-dependent logarithmic regret bound. The BwK problem extends the multi-arm bandit (MAB) problem to model the resource consumption associated with playing each arm, and the existing BwK literature has been mainly focused on deriving asymptotically optimal distribution-free regret bounds. We first study the primal and dual linear programs underlying the BwK problem. From this primal-dual perspective, we discover symmetry between arms and knapsacks, and then propose a new notion of sub-optimality measure for the BwK problem. The sub-optimality measure highlights the important role of knapsacks in determining algorithm regret and inspires the design of our two-phase algorithm. In the first phase, the algorithm identifies the optimal arms and the binding knapsacks, and in the second phase, it exhausts the binding knapsacks via playing the optimal arms through an adaptive procedure. Our regret upper bound involves the proposed sub-optimality measure and it has a logarithmic dependence on length of horizon $T$ and a polynomial dependence on $m$ (the numbers of arms) and $d$ (the number of knapsacks). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first problem-dependent logarithmic regret bound for solving the general BwK problem.

Jiashuo Jiang, Xiaocheng Li, Jiawei Zhang

We consider a general online stochastic optimization problem with multiple budget constraints over a horizon of finite time periods. In each time period, a reward function and multiple cost functions are revealed, and the decision maker needs to specify an action from a convex and compact action set to collect the reward and consume the budget. Each cost function corresponds to the consumption of one budget. In each period, the reward and cost functions are drawn from an unknown distribution, which is non-stationary across time. The objective of the decision maker is to maximize the cumulative reward subject to the budget constraints. This formulation captures a wide range of applications including online linear programming and network revenue management, among others. In this paper, we consider two settings: (i) a data-driven setting where the true distribution is unknown but a prior estimate (possibly inaccurate) is available; (ii) an uninformative setting where the true distribution is completely unknown. We propose a unified Wasserstein-distance based measure to quantify the inaccuracy of the prior estimate in setting (i) and the non-stationarity of the system in setting (ii). We show that the proposed measure leads to a necessary and sufficient condition for the attainability of a sublinear regret in both settings. For setting (i), we propose a new algorithm, which takes a primal-dual perspective and integrates the prior information of the underlying distributions into an online gradient descent procedure in the dual space. The algorithm also naturally extends to the uninformative setting (ii). Under both settings, we show the corresponding algorithm achieves a regret of optimal order. In numerical experiments, we demonstrate how the proposed algorithms can be naturally integrated with the re-solving technique to further boost the empirical performance.

Xiaocheng Li, Yinyu Ye

We study an online linear programming (OLP) problem under a random input model in which the columns of the constraint matrix along with the corresponding coefficients in the objective function are generated i.i.d. from an unknown distribution and revealed sequentially over time. Virtually all pre-existing online algorithms were based on learning the dual optimal solutions/prices of the linear programs (LP), and their analyses were focused on the aggregate objective value and solving the packing LP where all coefficients in the constraint matrix and objective are nonnegative. However, two major open questions were: (i) Does the set of LP optimal dual prices learned in the pre-existing algorithms converge to those of the "offline" LP, and (ii) Could the results be extended to general LP problems where the coefficients can be either positive or negative. We resolve these two questions by establishing convergence results for the dual prices under moderate regularity conditions for general LP problems. Specifically, we identify an equivalent form of the dual problem which relates the dual LP with a sample average approximation to a stochastic program. Furthermore, we propose a new type of OLP algorithm, Action-History-Dependent Learning Algorithm, which improves the previous algorithm performances by taking into account the past input data as well as decisions/actions already made. We derive an $O(\log n \log \log n)$ regret bound (under a locally strong convexity and smoothness condition) for the proposed algorithm, against the $O(\sqrt{n})$ bound for typical dual-price learning algorithms, where $n$ is the number of decision variables. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and the action-history-dependent design.

Huaiyang Zhong, Xiaocheng Li, David Lobell et al.

Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the 21st century. We address the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision-making framework. Specifically, we introduce a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop). We integrate this prediction mechanism with a weather forecasting model, and propose three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk.We apply our model to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. Our prediction model achieves a median absolute error of 3.74 bushels per acre and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models.Our decision models identify the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer's risk aversion level. More generally, our models support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.

Xiaocheng Li, Huaiyang Zhong, Margaret L. Brandeau

The goal of a traditional Markov decision process (MDP) is to maximize expected cumulative reward over a defined horizon (possibly infinite). In many applications, however, a decision maker may be interested in optimizing a specific quantile of the cumulative reward instead of its expectation. In this paper we consider the problem of optimizing the quantiles of the cumulative rewards of a Markov decision process (MDP), which we refer to as a quantile Markov decision process (QMDP). We provide analytical results characterizing the optimal QMDP value function and present a dynamic programming-based algorithm to solve for the optimal policy. The algorithm also extends to the MDP problem with a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) objective. We illustrate the practical relevance of our model by evaluating it on an HIV treatment initiation problem, where patients aim to balance the potential benefits and risks of the treatment.

Kuan Fang, Yu Xiang, Xiaocheng Li et al.

The main challenge of online multi-object tracking is to reliably associate object trajectories with detections in each video frame based on their tracking history. In this work, we propose the Recurrent Autoregressive Network (RAN), a temporal generative modeling framework to characterize the appearance and motion dynamics of multiple objects over time. The RAN couples an external memory and an internal memory. The external memory explicitly stores previous inputs of each trajectory in a time window, while the internal memory learns to summarize long-term tracking history and associate detections by processing the external memory. We conduct experiments on the MOT 2015 and 2016 datasets to demonstrate the robustness of our tracking method in highly crowded and occluded scenes. Our method achieves top-ranked results on the two benchmarks.

Zhenpeng Zhou, Xiaocheng Li

In this paper, we presented a novel convolutional neural network framework for graph modeling, with the introduction of two new modules specially designed for graph-structured data: the $k$-th order convolution operator and the adaptive filtering module. Importantly, our framework of High-order and Adaptive Graph Convolutional Network (HA-GCN) is a general-purposed architecture that fits various applications on both node and graph centrics, as well as graph generative models. We conducted extensive experiments on demonstrating the advantages of our framework. Particularly, our HA-GCN outperforms the state-of-the-art models on node classification and molecule property prediction tasks. It also generates 32% more real molecules on the molecule generation task, both of which will significantly benefit real-world applications such as material design and drug screening.