Xin Wen

Xin Wen, Xi Chen, Will Wei Sun et al.

Digital firms routinely run many online experiments on shared user populations. When product decisions are compositional, such as combinations of interface elements, flows, messages, or incentives, the number of feasible interventions grows combinatorially, while available traffic remains limited. Overlapping experiments can therefore generate interaction effects that are poorly handled by decentralized A/B testing. We study how to design large-scale factorial experiments when the objective is not to estimate every treatment effect, but to identify a high-performing policy under a fixed experimentation budget. We propose a two-stage design that centralizes overlapping experiments into a single factorial problem and models expected outcomes as a low-rank tensor. In the first stage, the platform samples a subset of intervention combinations, uses tensor completion to infer performance on untested combinations, and eliminates weak factor levels using estimated marginal contributions. In the second stage, it applies sequential halving to the surviving combinations to select a final policy. We establish gap-independent simple-regret bounds and gap-dependent identification guarantees showing that the relevant complexity scales with the degrees of freedom of the low-rank tensor and the separation structure across factor levels, rather than the full factorial size. In an offline evaluation based on a product-bundling problem constructed from 100 million Taobao interactions, the proposed method substantially outperforms one-shot tensor completion and unstructured best-arm benchmarks, especially in low-budget and high-noise settings. These results show how centralized, policy-aware experimentation can make combinatorial product design operationally feasible at platform scale.

Xin Wen, Will Wei Sun, Yichen Zhang

Recent technological advances have led to contemporary applications that demand real-time processing and analysis of sequentially arriving tensor data. Traditional offline learning, involving the storage and utilization of all data in each computational iteration, becomes impractical for high-dimensional tensor data due to its voluminous size. Furthermore, existing low-rank tensor methods lack the capability for statistical inference in an online fashion, which is essential for real-time predictions and informed decision-making. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing a novel online inference framework for low-rank tensor learning. Our approach employs Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to enable efficient real-time data processing without extensive memory requirements, thereby significantly reducing computational demands. We establish a non-asymptotic convergence result for the online low-rank SGD estimator, nearly matches the minimax optimal rate of estimation error in offline models that store all historical data. Building upon this foundation, we propose a simple yet powerful online debiasing approach for sequential statistical inference in low-rank tensor learning. The entire online procedure, covering both estimation and inference, eliminates the need for data splitting or storing historical data, making it suitable for on-the-fly hypothesis testing. Given the sequential nature of our data collection, traditional analyses relying on offline methods and sample splitting are inadequate. In our analysis, we control the sum of constructed super-martingales to ensure estimates along the entire solution path remain within the benign region. Additionally, a novel spectral representation tool is employed to address statistical dependencies among iterative estimates, establishing the desired asymptotic normality.