Hans Hasse

Nicolas Hayer, Thorsten Wendel, Stephan Mandt et al.

Accurate prediction of thermodynamic properties is pivotal in chemical engineering for optimizing process efficiency and sustainability. Physical group-contribution (GC) methods are widely employed for this purpose but suffer from historically grown, incomplete parameterizations, limiting their applicability and accuracy. In this work, we overcome these limitations by combining GC with matrix completion methods (MCM) from machine learning. We use the novel approach to predict a complete set of pair-interaction parameters for the most successful GC method: UNIFAC, the workhorse for predicting activity coefficients in liquid mixtures. The resulting new method, UNIFAC 2.0, is trained and validated on more than 224,000 experimental data points, showcasing significantly enhanced prediction accuracy (e.g., nearly halving the mean squared error) and increased scope by eliminating gaps in the original model's parameter table. Moreover, the generic nature of the approach facilitates updating the method with new data or tailoring it to specific applications.

Marco Hoffmann, Hans Hasse, Fabian Jirasek

Although the pure component vapor pressure is one of the most important properties for designing chemical processes, no broadly applicable, sufficiently accurate, and open-source prediction method has been available. To overcome this, we have developed GRAPPA - a hybrid graph neural network for predicting vapor pressures of pure components. GRAPPA enables the prediction of the vapor pressure curve of basically any organic molecule, requiring only the molecular structure as input. The new model consists of three parts: A graph attention network for the message passing step, a pooling function that captures long-range interactions, and a prediction head that yields the component-specific parameters of the Antoine equation, from which the vapor pressure can readily and consistently be calculated for any temperature. We have trained and evaluated GRAPPA on experimental vapor pressure data of almost 25,000 pure components. We found excellent prediction accuracy for unseen components, outperforming state-of-the-art group contribution methods and other machine learning approaches in applicability and accuracy. The trained model and its code are fully disclosed, and GRAPPA is directly applicable via the interactive website ml-prop.mv.rptu.de.

Dennis Wagner, Arjun Nair, Billy Joe Franks et al.

Undetected anomalies in time series can trigger catastrophic failures in safety-critical systems, such as chemical plant explosions or power grid outages. Although many detection methods have been proposed, their performance remains unclear because current metrics capture only narrow aspects of the task and often yield misleading results. We address this issue by introducing verifiable properties that formalize essential requirements for evaluating time-series anomaly detection. These properties enable a theoretical framework that supports principled evaluations and reliable comparisons. Analyzing 37 widely used metrics, we show that most satisfy only a few properties, and none satisfy all, explaining persistent inconsistencies in prior results. To close this gap, we propose LARM, a flexible metric that provably satisfies all properties, and extend it to ALARM, an advanced variant meeting stricter requirements.

Rebecca Loubet, Pascal Zittlau, Marco Hoffmann et al.

In this short note, we report and analyze a striking event: OpenAI's large language model o3 has outwitted all students in a university exam on thermodynamics. The thermodynamics exam is a difficult hurdle for most students, where they must show that they have mastered the fundamentals of this important topic. Consequently, the failure rates are very high, A-grades are rare - and they are considered proof of the students' exceptional intellectual abilities. This is because pattern learning does not help in the exam. The problems can only be solved by knowledgeably and creatively combining principles of thermodynamics. We have given our latest thermodynamics exam not only to the students but also to OpenAI's most powerful reasoning model, o3, and have assessed the answers of o3 exactly the same way as those of the students. In zero-shot mode, the model o3 solved all problems correctly, better than all students who took the exam; its overall score was in the range of the best scores we have seen in more than 10,000 similar exams since 1985. This is a turning point: machines now excel in complex tasks, usually taken as proof of human intellectual capabilities. We discuss the consequences this has for the work of engineers and the education of future engineers.