Jonas Scholz

Jonas Scholz, Tom R. Andersson, Anna Vaughan et al.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have recently undergone rapid improvements. These models are typically trained on gridded reanalysis data from numerical data assimilation systems. However, reanalysis data comes with limitations, such as assumptions about physical laws and low spatiotemporal resolution. The gap between reanalysis and reality has sparked growing interest in training ML models directly on observations such as weather stations. Modelling scattered and sparse environmental observations requires scalable and flexible ML architectures, one of which is the convolutional conditional neural process (ConvCNP). ConvCNPs can learn to condition on both gridded and off-the-grid context data to make uncertainty-aware predictions at target locations. However, the sparsity of real observations presents a challenge for data-hungry deep learning models like the ConvCNP. One potential solution is 'Sim2Real': pre-training on reanalysis and fine-tuning on observational data. We analyse Sim2Real with a ConvCNP trained to interpolate surface air temperature over Germany, using varying numbers of weather stations for fine-tuning. On held-out weather stations, Sim2Real training substantially outperforms the same model architecture trained only with reanalysis data or only with station data, showing that reanalysis data can serve as a stepping stone for learning from real observations. Sim2Real could thus enable more accurate models for weather prediction and climate monitoring.

Cristiana Diaconu, Jonas Scholz, Aliaksandra Shysheya et al.

State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets. This restricts usage for under-resourced groups and severely limits fast model iteration. Here we develop Otter Weather, a highly efficient spatiotemporal forecasting model designed to democratise high-performance weather prediction with AI. Evaluated on ERA5 reanalysis data at 1.5° resolution using standard WeatherBench protocols, the Otter family significantly advances the skill-compute Pareto frontier. The deterministic version outperforms the best NWP baseline by 9.6% at a 24-hour lead time while requiring fewer than 3.5 A100-days for training. It provides a 2x efficiency gain over lightweight AI models and a 100-fold reduction in compute compared to resource-intensive frontier architectures. We extend these efficiency gains into probabilistic forecasting by training via the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Scaling to a larger architecture, Otter-XL achieves a 9.7% CRPS improvement over the IFS ENS baseline. This yields an almost two-fold increase in predictive skill over comparable lightweight models at similar compute budgets. Otter-XL also outperforms frontier architectures like GenCast by over 2%, while using an order of magnitude less compute. Finally, Otter is applied out-of-the-box to a complex acoustic scattering PDE task where it outperforms a state-of-the-art foundation modelling approach, suggesting that the advances made here might apply across a range of scientific domains.

Jonas Scholz, Richard E. Turner

Generative models like diffusion and flow-matching create high-fidelity samples by progressively refining noise. The refinement process is notoriously slow, often requiring hundreds of function evaluations. We introduce Warm-Start Diffusion (WSD), a method that uses a simple, deterministic model to dramatically accelerate conditional generation by providing a better starting point. Instead of starting generation from an uninformed $N(\boldsymbol{0}, I)$ prior, our deterministic warm-start model predicts an informed prior $N(\hat{\boldsymbolμ}_C, \text{diag}(\hat{\boldsymbolσ}^2_C))$, whose moments are conditioned on the input context $C$. This warm start substantially reduces the distance the generative process must traverse, and therefore the number of diffusion steps required, particularly when the context $C$ is strongly informative. WSD is applicable to any standard diffusion or flow matching algorithm, is orthogonal to and synergistic with other fast sampling techniques like efficient solvers, and is simple to implement. We test WSD in a variety of settings, and find that it substantially outperforms standard diffusion in the efficient sampling regime, generating realistic samples using only 4-6 function evaluations, and saturating performance with 10-12.