Renukanandan Tumu

Renukanandan Tumu, Cristian Ioan Vasile, Victor Preciado et al.

We present the Social Influence Game (SIG), a framework for modeling adversarial persuasion in social networks with an arbitrary number of competing players. Our goal is to provide a tractable and interpretable model of contested influence that scales to large systems while capturing the structural leverage points of networks. Each player allocates influence from a fixed budget to steer opinions that evolve under DeGroot dynamics, and we prove that the resulting optimization problem is a difference-of-convex program. To enable scalability, we develop an Iterated Linear (IL) solver that approximates player objectives with linear programs. In experiments on random and archetypical networks, IL achieves solutions within 7% of nonlinear solvers while being over 10x faster, scaling to large social networks. This paper lays a foundation for asymptotic analysis of contested influence in complex networks.

Renukanandan Tumu, Lars Lindemann, Truong Nghiem et al.

Predicting the motion of dynamic agents is a critical task for guaranteeing the safety of autonomous systems. A particular challenge is that motion prediction algorithms should obey dynamics constraints and quantify prediction uncertainty as a measure of confidence. We present a physics-constrained approach for motion prediction which uses a surrogate dynamical model to ensure that predicted trajectories are dynamically feasible. We propose a two-step integration consisting of intent and trajectory prediction subject to dynamics constraints. We also construct prediction regions that quantify uncertainty and are tailored for autonomous driving by using conformal prediction, a popular statistical tool. Physics Constrained Motion Prediction achieves a 41% better ADE, 56% better FDE, and 19% better IoU over a baseline in experiments using an autonomous racing dataset.

Viet-Anh Le, Renukanandan Tumu, Rahul Mangharam

Model predictive path integral (MPPI) is a sampling-based method for solving complex model predictive control (MPC) problems, but its real-time implementation faces two key challenges: the computational cost and sample requirements grow with the prediction horizon, and manually tuning the sampling covariance requires balancing exploration and noise. To address these issues, we propose Step-MPPI, a framework that learns a sampling distribution for efficient single-step lookahead MPPI implementation. Specifically, we use a neural network to parameterize the MPPI proposal distribution at each time step, and train it in a self-supervised manner over a long horizon using the MPC cost, constraint penalties, and a maximum-entropy regularization term. By embedding long-horizon objectives into training the neural distribution policy, Step-MPPI achieves the foresight of a multi-step optimizer with the millisecond-level latency of single-step lookahead. We demonstrate the efficiency of Step-MPPI across multiple challenging tasks in which MPPI suffers from high dimensionality and/or long control horizons.

Renukanandan Tumu, Aditya Singh, Rahul Mangharam

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely on exchangeability assumptions that are violated by the distribution shifts inherent in real-world robotics. Existing online CP methods maintain target coverage by adaptively scaling the conformal threshold, but typically employ a static nonconformity score function. We show that this fixed geometry leads to highly conservative, volume-inefficient prediction regions when environments undergo structural shifts. To address this, we propose \textbf{AdaptNC}, a framework for the joint online adaptation of both the nonconformity score parameters and the conformal threshold. AdaptNC leverages an adaptive reweighting scheme to optimize score functions, and introduces a replay buffer mechanism to mitigate the coverage instability that occurs during score transitions. We evaluate AdaptNC on diverse robotic benchmarks involving multi-agent policy changes, environmental changes and sensor degradation. Our results demonstrate that AdaptNC significantly reduces prediction region volume compared to state-of-the-art threshold-only baselines while maintaining target coverage levels.

Tom Kuipers, Renukanandan Tumu, Shuo Yang et al.

Off-Policy Prediction (OPP), i.e., predicting the outcomes of a target policy using only data collected under a nominal (behavioural) policy, is a paramount problem in data-driven analysis of safety-critical systems where the deployment of a new policy may be unsafe. To achieve dependable off-policy predictions, recent work on Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP) leverage the conformal prediction framework to derive prediction regions with probabilistic guarantees under the target process. Existing COPP methods can account for the distribution shifts induced by policy switching, but are limited to single-agent systems and scalar outcomes (e.g., rewards). In this work, we introduce MA-COPP, the first conformal prediction method to solve OPP problems involving multi-agent systems, deriving joint prediction regions for all agents' trajectories when one or more ego agents change their policies. Unlike the single-agent scenario, this setting introduces higher complexity as the distribution shifts affect predictions for all agents, not just the ego agents, and the prediction task involves full multi-dimensional trajectories, not just reward values. A key contribution of MA-COPP is to avoid enumeration or exhaustive search of the output space of agent trajectories, which is instead required by existing COPP methods to construct the prediction region. We achieve this by showing that an over-approximation of the true joint prediction region (JPR) can be constructed, without enumeration, from the maximum density ratio of the JPR trajectories. We evaluate the effectiveness of MA-COPP in multi-agent systems from the PettingZoo library and the F1TENTH autonomous racing environment, achieving nominal coverage in higher dimensions and various shift settings.

Renukanandan Tumu, Matthew Cleaveland, Rahul Mangharam et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a \emph{non-conformity score function} that quantifies how different a model's prediction is from the unknown ground truth value. Essentially, these functions determine the shape and the size of the conformal prediction regions. While prior work has gone into creating score functions that produce multi-model prediction regions, such regions are generally too complex for use in downstream planning and control problems. We propose a method that optimizes parameterized \emph{shape template functions} over calibration data, which results in non-conformity score functions that produce prediction regions with minimum volume. Our approach results in prediction regions that are \emph{multi-modal}, so they can properly capture residuals of distributions that have multiple modes, and \emph{practical}, so each region is convex and can be easily incorporated into downstream tasks, such as a motion planner using conformal prediction regions. Our method applies to general supervised learning tasks, while we illustrate its use in time-series prediction. We provide a toolbox and present illustrative case studies of F16 fighter jets and autonomous vehicles, showing an up to $68\%$ reduction in prediction region area compared to a circular baseline region.

Renukanandan Tumu, Wenceslao Shaw Cortez, Ján Drgoňa et al.

Transportation is a major contributor to CO2 emissions, making it essential to optimize traffic networks to reduce energy-related emissions. This paper presents a novel approach to traffic network control using Differentiable Predictive Control (DPC), a physics-informed machine learning methodology. We base our model on the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) and the Networked Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (NMFD), offering a simplified representation of citywide traffic networks. Our approach ensures compliance with system constraints by construction. In empirical comparisons with existing state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control (MPC) methods, our approach demonstrates a 4 order of magnitude reduction in computation time and an up to 37% improvement in traffic performance. Furthermore, we assess the robustness of our controller to scenario shifts and find that it adapts well to changes in traffic patterns. This work proposes more efficient traffic control methods, particularly in large-scale urban networks, and aims to mitigate emissions and alleviate congestion in the future.