Vincent Gurgul

Vincent Gurgul, Stefan Lessmann, Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. A distinctive feature of our methodology is the application of the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model to detect bullish and bearish trends, significantly advancing beyond traditional sentiment analysis. Additionally, we systematically compare a range of pre-trained and fine-tuned deep learning NLP models against conventional dictionary-based sentiment analysis methods. Another key contribution of our work is the adoption of local extrema alongside daily price movements as predictive targets, reducing trading frequency and portfolio volatility. Our findings demonstrate that integrating textual data into cryptocurrency price forecasting not only improves forecasting accuracy but also consistently enhances the profitability and Sharpe ratio across various validation scenarios, particularly when applying deep learning NLP techniques. The entire codebase of our experiments is made available via an online repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/crypto-forecasting-public

Vincent Gurgul, Robin Gubela, Stefan Lessmann

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) rapidly transforms software engineering, yet existing research remains fragmented across individual tasks in the Software Development Lifecycle. This study integrates a systematic literature review with a survey of 65 software developers. The results show that GenAI exerts its highest impact in design, implementation, testing, and documentation, where over 70 % of developers report at least halving the time for boilerplate and documentation tasks. 79 % of survey respondents use GenAI daily, preferring browser-based Large Language Models over alternatives integrated directly in their development environment. Governance is maturing, with two-thirds of organizations maintaining formal or informal guidelines. In contrast, early SDLC phases such as planning and requirements analysis show markedly lower reported benefits. In a nutshell, GenAI shifts value creation from routine coding toward specification quality, architectural reasoning, and oversight, while risks such as uncritical adoption, skill erosion, and technical debt require robust governance and human-in-the-loop mechanisms.

Lukas Vöge, Vincent Gurgul, Stefan Lessmann

This paper introduces a novel approach for efficiently distilling LLMs into smaller, application-specific models, significantly reducing operational costs and manual labor. Addressing the challenge of deploying computationally intensive LLMs in specific applications or edge devices, this technique utilizes LLMs' reasoning capabilities to generate labels and natural language rationales for unlabeled data. Our approach enhances both finetuning and distillation by employing a multi-task training framework where student models mimic these rationales alongside teacher predictions. Key contributions include the employment of zero-shot prompting to elicit teacher model rationales, reducing the necessity for handcrafted few-shot examples and lowering the overall token count required, which directly translates to cost savings given the pay-per-token billing model of major tech companies' LLM APIs. Additionally, the paper investigates the impact of explanation properties on distillation efficiency, demonstrating that minimal performance loss occurs even when rationale augmentation is not applied across the entire dataset, facilitating further reductions of tokens. This research marks a step toward the efficient training of task-specific models with minimal human intervention, offering substantial cost-savings while maintaining, or even enhancing, performance.