Qinglong Cao

Jiaxin Gao, Qinglong Cao, Yuntian Chen

Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a noise-based conditional generation task. This approach neglects the inherent continuous sequential nature of time series, leading to a fundamental misalignment between diffusion mechanisms and the TSF objective, thereby severely impairing performance. To bridge this misalignment, and inspired by the classic Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) theory, which views time series as continuous sequential progressions evolving from previous data points, we propose a novel Auto-Regressive Moving Diffusion (ARMD) model to first achieve the continuous sequential diffusion-based TSF. Unlike previous methods that start from white Gaussian noise, our model employs chain-based diffusion with priors, accurately modeling the evolution of time series and leveraging intermediate state information to improve forecasting accuracy and stability. Specifically, our approach reinterprets the diffusion process by considering future series as the initial state and historical series as the final state, with intermediate series generated using a sliding-based technique during the forward process. This design aligns the diffusion model's sampling procedure with the forecasting objective, resulting in an unconditional, continuous sequential diffusion TSF model. Extensive experiments conducted on seven widely used datasets demonstrate that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming existing diffusion-based TSF models. Our code is available on GitHub: https://github.com/daxin007/ARMD.

Jiaxin Gao, Qinglong Cao, Yuntian Chen et al.

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a crucial role in optimizing the operation and planning of PV systems, thereby enabling efficient energy management and grid integration. However, un certainties caused by fluctuating weather conditions and complex interactions between different variables pose significant challenges to accurate PV power forecasting. In this study, we propose PV-Client (Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting) to address these challenges and enhance PV power forecasting accuracy. PV-Client employs an ENhanced Transformer module to capture complex interactions of various features in PV systems, and utilizes a linear module to learn trend information in PV power. Diverging from conventional time series-based Transformer models that use cross-time Attention to learn dependencies between different time steps, the Enhanced Transformer module integrates cross-variable Attention to capture dependencies between PV power and weather factors. Furthermore, PV-Client streamlines the embedding and position encoding layers by replacing the Decoder module with a projection layer. Experimental results on three real-world PV power datasets affirm PV-Client's state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in PV power forecasting. Specifically, PV-Client surpasses the second-best model GRU by 5.3% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Jingang Station. Similarly, PV-Client outperforms the second-best model SVR by 10.1% in MSE metrics and 0.2% in accuracy metrics at the Xinqingnian Station, and PV-Client exhibits superior performance compared to the second-best model SVR with enhancements of 3.4% in MSE metrics and 0.9% in accuracy metrics at the Hongxing Station.