Matthew Forshaw

Andrew Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

Executing workflows on volunteer computing resources where individual tasks may be forced to relinquish their resource for the resource's primary use leads to unpredictability and often significantly increases execution time. Task replication is one approach that can ameliorate this challenge. This comes at the expense of a potentially significant increase in system load and energy consumption. We propose the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) such that a system may `learn' the `best' number of replicas to run to increase the number of workflows which complete promptly whilst minimising the additional workload on the system when replicas are not beneficial. We show, through simulation, that we can save 34% of the energy consumption using RL compared to a fixed number of replicas with only a 4% decrease in workflows achieving a pre-defined overhead bound.

Alexander J. M. Kell, Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

The electricity market has a vital role to play in the decarbonisation of the energy system. However, the electricity market is made up of many different variables and data inputs. These variables and data inputs behave in sometimes unpredictable ways which can not be predicted a-priori. It has therefore been suggested that agent-based simulations are used to better understand the dynamics of the electricity market. Agent-based models provide the opportunity to integrate machine learning and artificial intelligence to add intelligence, make better forecasts and control the power market in better and more efficient ways. In this systematic literature review, we review 55 papers published between 2016 and 2021 which focus on machine learning applied to agent-based electricity market models. We find that research clusters around popular topics, such as bidding strategies. However, there exists a long-tail of different research applications that could benefit from the high intensity research from the more investigated applications.

David Towers, Matthew Forshaw, Amir Atapour-Abarghouei et al.

It is a sad reflection of modern academia that code is often ignored after publication -- there is no academic 'kudos' for bug fixes / maintenance. Code is often unavailable or, if available, contains bugs, is incomplete, or relies on out-of-date / unavailable libraries. This has a significant impact on reproducibility and general scientific progress. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is no exception to this, with some prior work in reproducibility. However, we argue that these do not consider long-term reproducibility issues. We therefore propose a checklist for long-term NAS reproducibility. We evaluate our checklist against common NAS approaches along with proposing how we can retrospectively make these approaches more long-term reproducible.

Rob Geada, David Towers, Matthew Forshaw et al.

The boundless possibility of neural networks which can be used to solve a problem -- each with different performance -- leads to a situation where a Deep Learning expert is required to identify the best neural network. This goes against the hope of removing the need for experts. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) offers a solution to this by automatically identifying the best architecture. However, to date, NAS work has focused on a small set of datasets which we argue are not representative of real-world problems. We introduce eight new datasets created for a series of NAS Challenges: AddNIST, Language, MultNIST, CIFARTile, Gutenberg, Isabella, GeoClassing, and Chesseract. These datasets and challenges are developed to direct attention to issues in NAS development and to encourage authors to consider how their models will perform on datasets unknown to them at development time. We present experimentation using standard Deep Learning methods as well as the best results from challenge participants.

Alexander J. M. Kell, A. Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

A lowering in the cost of batteries and solar PV systems has led to a high uptake of solar battery home systems. In this work, we use the deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm to optimise the charging and discharging behaviour of a battery within such a system. Our approach outputs a continuous action space when it charges and discharges the battery, and can function well in a stochastic environment. We show good performance of this algorithm by lowering the expenditure of a single household on electricity to almost \$1AUD for large batteries across selected weeks within a year.

Alexander J. M. Kell, A. Stephen McGough, Matthew Forshaw

Electricity supply must be matched with demand at all times. This helps reduce the chances of issues such as load frequency control and the chances of electricity blackouts. To gain a better understanding of the load that is likely to be required over the next 24h, estimations under uncertainty are needed. This is especially difficult in a decentralized electricity market with many micro-producers which are not under central control. In this paper, we investigate the impact of eleven offline learning and five online learning algorithms to predict the electricity demand profile over the next 24h. We achieve this through integration within the long-term agent-based model, ElecSim. Through the prediction of electricity demand profile over the next 24h, we can simulate the predictions made for a day-ahead market. Once we have made these predictions, we sample from the residual distributions and perturb the electricity market demand using the simulation, ElecSim. This enables us to understand the impact of errors on the long-term dynamics of a decentralized electricity market. We show we can reduce the mean absolute error by 30% using an online algorithm when compared to the best offline algorithm, whilst reducing the required tendered national grid reserve required. This reduction in national grid reserves leads to savings in costs and emissions. We also show that large errors in prediction accuracy have a disproportionate error on investments made over a 17-year time frame, as well as electricity mix.

Alexander J. M. Kell, Matthew Forshaw, A. Stephen McGough

Decentralized electricity markets are often dominated by a small set of generator companies who control the majority of the capacity. In this paper, we explore the effect of the total controlled electricity capacity by a single, or group, of generator companies can have on the average electricity price. We demonstrate this through the use of ElecSim, a simulation of a country-wide energy market. We develop a strategic agent, representing a generation company, which uses a deep deterministic policy gradient reinforcement learning algorithm to bid in a uniform pricing electricity market. A uniform pricing market is one where all players are paid the highest accepted price. ElecSim is parameterized to the United Kingdom for the year 2018. This work can help inform policy on how to best regulate a market to ensure that the price of electricity remains competitive. We find that capacity has an impact on the average electricity price in a single year. If any single generator company, or a collaborating group of generator companies, control more than ${\sim}$11$\%$ of generation capacity and bid strategically, prices begin to increase by ${\sim}$25$\%$. The value of ${\sim}$25\% and ${\sim}$11\% may vary between market structures and countries. For instance, different load profiles may favour a particular type of generator or a different distribution of generation capacity. Once the capacity controlled by a generator company, which bids strategically, is higher than ${\sim}$35\%, prices increase exponentially. We observe that the use of a market cap of approximately double the average market price has the effect of significantly decreasing this effect and maintaining a competitive market. A fair and competitive electricity market provides value to consumers and enables a more competitive economy through the utilisation of electricity by both industry and consumers.