Qianying Cao, Shanqing Liu, Alan John Varghese et al.
Time series forecasting plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications, including weather prediction, healthcare, structural health monitoring, predictive maintenance, energy systems, and financial markets. While models such as LSTM, GRU, Transformers, and State-Space Models (SSMs) have become standard tools in this domain, selecting the optimal architecture remains a challenge. Performance comparisons often depend on evaluation metrics and the datasets under analysis, making the choice of a universally optimal model controversial. In this work, we introduce a flexible automated framework for time series forecasting that systematically designs and evaluates diverse network architectures by integrating LSTM, GRU, multi-head Attention, and SSM blocks. Using a multi-objective optimization approach, our framework determines the number, sequence, and combination of blocks to align with specific requirements and evaluation objectives. From the resulting Pareto-optimal architectures, the best model for a given context is selected via a user-defined preference function. We validate our framework across four distinct real-world applications. Results show that a single-layer GRU or LSTM is usually optimal when minimizing training time alone. However, when maximizing accuracy or balancing multiple objectives, the best architectures are often composite designs incorporating multiple block types in specific configurations. By employing a weighted preference function, users can resolve trade-offs between objectives, revealing novel, context-specific optimal architectures. Our findings underscore that no single neural architecture is universally optimal for time series forecasting. Instead, the best-performing model emerges as a data-driven composite architecture tailored to user-defined criteria and evaluation objectives.
Dixia Fan, Liu Yang, Michael S Triantafyllou et al.
We demonstrate experimentally the feasibility of applying reinforcement learning (RL) in flow control problems by automatically discovering active control strategies without any prior knowledge of the flow physics. We consider the turbulent flow past a circular cylinder with the aim of reducing the cylinder drag force or maximizing the power gain efficiency by properly selecting the rotational speed of two small diameter cylinders, parallel to and located downstream of the larger cylinder. Given properly designed rewards and noise reduction techniques, after tens of towing experiments, the RL agent could discover the optimal control strategy, comparable to the optimal static control. While RL has been found to be effective in recent computer flow simulation studies, this is the first time that its effectiveness is demonstrated experimentally, paving the way for exploring new optimal active flow control strategies in complex fluid mechanics applications.
José del Águila Ferrandis, Michael Triantafyllou, Chryssostomos Chryssostomidis et al.
Predicting motions of vessels in extreme sea states represents one of the most challenging problems in naval hydrodynamics. It involves computing complex nonlinear wave-body interactions, hence taxing heavily computational resources. Here, we put forward a new simulation paradigm by training recurrent type neural networks (RNNs) that take as input the stochastic wave elevation at a certain sea state and output the main vessel motions, e.g., pitch, heave and roll. We first compare the performance of standard RNNs versus GRU and LSTM neural networks (NNs) and show that LSTM NNs lead to the best performance. We then examine the testing error of two representative vessels, a catamaran in sea state 1 and a battleship in sea state 8. We demonstrate that good accuracy is achieved for both cases in predicting the vessel motions for unseen wave elevations. We train the NNs with expensive CFD simulations offline, but upon training, the prediction of the vessel dynamics online can be obtained at a fraction of a second. This work is motivated by the universal approximation theorem for functionals [1], and it is the first implementation of such theory to realistic engineering problems.