Rafael Poyiadzi

Kacper Sokol, Alexander Hepburn, Rafael Poyiadzi et al.

Predictive systems, in particular machine learning algorithms, can take important, and sometimes legally binding, decisions about our everyday life. In most cases, however, these systems and decisions are neither regulated nor certified. Given the potential harm that these algorithms can cause, their qualities such as fairness, accountability and transparency (FAT) are of paramount importance. To ensure high-quality, fair, transparent and reliable predictive systems, we developed an open source Python package called FAT Forensics. It can inspect important fairness, accountability and transparency aspects of predictive algorithms to automatically and objectively report them back to engineers and users of such systems. Our toolbox can evaluate all elements of a predictive pipeline: data (and their features), models and predictions. Published under the BSD 3-Clause open source licence, FAT Forensics is opened up for personal and commercial usage.

Niall Twomey, Sarah McMullan, Anat Elhalal et al.

At present, the educational data mining community lacks many tools needed for ensuring equitable ability estimation for Neurodivergent (ND) learners. On one hand, most learner models are susceptible to under-estimating ND ability since confounding contexts cannot be held accountable (eg consider dyslexia and text-heavy assessments), and on the other, few (if any) existing datasets are suited for appraising model and data bias in ND contexts. In this paper we attempt to model the relationships between context (delivery and response types) and performance of ND students with zero-inflated learner models. This approach facilitates simulation of several expected ND behavioural traits, provides equitable ability estimates across all student groups from generated datasets, increases interpretability confidence, and can significantly increase the quality of learning opportunities for ND students. Our approach consistently out-performs baselines in our experiments and can also be applied to many other learner modelling frameworks.

Tom Liptay, Dan Schwarz, Rafael Poyiadzi et al.

Forecasting benchmarks produce accuracy leaderboards but little insight into why some forecasters are more accurate than others. We introduce Bench to the Future 2 (BTF-2), 1,417 pastcasting questions with a frozen 15M-document research corpus in which agents reproducibly research and forecast offline, producing full reasoning traces. BTF-2 detects accuracy differences of 0.004 Brier score, and can distinguish differential agent strengths in research vs. judgment. We build a forecaster 0.011 Brier more accurate than any single frontier agent, and use it to evaluate agent strategic reasoning without hindsight bias. We find the better forecaster differs primarily in its pre-mortem analysis of its blind spots and consideration of black swans. Expert human forecasters found the dominant strategic reasoning failures of frontier agents are in assessing political and business leaders' incentives, judging their likelihood to follow through on stated plans, and modeling institutional processes.

William James Bolton, Rafael Poyiadzi, Edward R. Morrell et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly support applications in a wide range of domains, some with potential high societal impact such as biomedicine, yet their reliability in realistic use cases is under-researched. In this work we introduce the Reliability AssesMent for Biomedical LLM Assistants (RAmBLA) framework and evaluate whether four state-of-the-art foundation LLMs can serve as reliable assistants in the biomedical domain. We identify prompt robustness, high recall, and a lack of hallucinations as necessary criteria for this use case. We design shortform tasks and tasks requiring LLM freeform responses mimicking real-world user interactions. We evaluate LLM performance using semantic similarity with a ground truth response, through an evaluator LLM.

Weisong Yang, Rafael Poyiadzi, Niall Twomey et al.

In supervised learning, automatically assessing the quality of the labels before any learning takes place remains an open research question. In certain particular cases, hypothesis testing procedures have been proposed to assess whether a given instance-label dataset is contaminated with class-conditional label noise, as opposed to uniform label noise. The existing theory builds on the asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimate for parametric logistic regression. However, the parametric assumptions on top of which these approaches are constructed are often too strong and unrealistic in practice. To alleviate this problem, in this paper we propose an alternative path by showing how similar procedures can be followed when the underlying model is a product of Local Maximum Likelihood Estimation that leads to more flexible nonparametric logistic regression models, which in turn are less susceptible to model misspecification. This different view allows for wider applicability of the tests by offering users access to a richer model class. Similarly to existing works, we assume we have access to anchor points which are provided by the users. We introduce the necessary ingredients for the adaptation of the hypothesis tests to the case of nonparametric logistic regression and empirically compare against the parametric approach presenting both synthetic and real-world case studies and discussing the advantages and limitations of the proposed approach.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Daniel Bacaicoa-Barber, Jesus Cid-Sueiro et al.

Many ways of annotating a dataset for machine learning classification tasks that go beyond the usual class labels exist in practice. These are of interest as they can simplify or facilitate the collection of annotations, while not greatly affecting the resulting machine learning model. Many of these fall under the umbrella term of weak labels or annotations. However, it is not always clear how different alternatives are related. In this paper we propose a framework for categorising weak supervision settings with the aim of: (1) helping the dataset owner or annotator navigate through the available options within weak supervision when prescribing an annotation process, and (2) describing existing annotations for a dataset to machine learning practitioners so that we allow them to understand the implications for the learning process. To this end, we identify the key elements that characterise weak supervision and devise a series of dimensions that categorise most of the existing approaches. We show how common settings in the literature fit within the framework and discuss its possible uses in practice.

Jonas Schulz, Rafael Poyiadzi, Raul Santos-Rodriguez

Explainability of black-box machine learning models is crucial, in particular when deployed in critical applications such as medicine or autonomous cars. Existing approaches produce explanations for the predictions of models, however, how to assess the quality and reliability of such explanations remains an open question. In this paper we take a step further in order to provide the practitioner with tools to judge the trustworthiness of an explanation. To this end, we produce estimates of the uncertainty of a given explanation by measuring the ordinal consensus amongst a set of diverse bootstrapped surrogate explainers. While we encourage diversity by using ensemble techniques, we propose and analyse metrics to aggregate the information contained within the set of explainers through a rating scheme. We empirically illustrate the properties of this approach through experiments on state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Network ensembles. Furthermore, through tailored visualisations, we show specific examples of situations where uncertainty estimates offer concrete actionable insights to the user beyond those arising from standard surrogate explainers.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Jie Shen, Stavros Petridis et al.

Apparent emotional facial expression recognition has attracted a lot of research attention recently. However, the majority of approaches ignore age differences and train a generic model for all ages. In this work, we study the effect of using different age-groups for training apparent emotional facial expression recognition models. To this end, we study Domain Generalisation in the context of apparent emotional facial expression recognition from facial imagery across different age groups. We first compare several domain generalisation algorithms on the basis of out-of-domain-generalisation, and observe that the Class-Conditional Domain-Adversarial Neural Networks (CDANN) algorithm has the best performance. We then study the effect of variety and number of age-groups used during training on generalisation to unseen age-groups and observe that an increase in the number of training age-groups tends to increase the apparent emotional facial expression recognition performance on unseen age-groups. We also show that exclusion of an age-group during training tends to affect more the performance of the neighbouring age groups.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Xavier Renard, Thibault Laugel et al.

This paper analyses the fundamental ingredients behind surrogate explanations to provide a better understanding of their inner workings. We start our exposition by considering global surrogates, describing the trade-off between complexity of the surrogate and fidelity to the black-box being modelled. We show that transitioning from global to local - reducing coverage - allows for more favourable conditions on the Pareto frontier of fidelity-complexity of a surrogate. We discuss the interplay between complexity, fidelity and coverage, and consider how different user needs can lead to problem formulations where these are either constraints or penalties. We also present experiments that demonstrate how the local surrogate interpretability procedure can be made interactive and lead to better explanations.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Xavier Renard, Thibault Laugel et al.

Local surrogate approaches for explaining machine learning model predictions have appealing properties, such as being model-agnostic and flexible in their modelling. Several methods exist that fit this description and share this goal. However, despite their shared overall procedure, they set out different objectives, extract different information from the black-box, and consequently produce diverse explanations, that are -- in general -- incomparable. In this work we review the similarities and differences amongst multiple methods, with a particular focus on what information they extract from the model, as this has large impact on the output: the explanation. We discuss the implications of the lack of agreement, and clarity, amongst the methods' objectives on the research and practice of explainability.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Weisong Yang, Niall Twomey et al.

In this paper we provide machine learning practitioners with tools to answer the question: is there class-conditional noise in my labels? In particular, we present hypothesis tests to check whether a given dataset of instance-label pairs has been corrupted with class-conditional label noise, as opposed to uniform label noise, with the former biasing learning, while the latter -- under mild conditions -- does not. The outcome of these tests can then be used in conjunction with other information to assess further steps. While previous works explore the direct estimation of the noise rates, this is known to be hard in practice and does not offer a real understanding of how trustworthy the estimates are. These methods typically require anchor points -- examples whose true posterior is either 0 or 1. Differently, in this paper we assume we have access to a set of anchor points whose true posterior is approximately 1/2. The proposed hypothesis tests are built upon the asymptotic properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Logistic Regression models. We establish the main properties of the tests, including a theoretical and empirical analysis of the dependence of the power on the test on the training sample size, the number of anchor points, the difference of the noise rates and the use of relaxed anchors.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Weisong Yang, Yoav Ben-Shlomo et al.

There is a pressing need to automatically understand the state and progression of chronic neurological diseases such as dementia. The emergence of state-of-the-art sensing platforms offers unprecedented opportunities for indirect and automatic evaluation of disease state through the lens of behavioural monitoring. This paper specifically seeks to characterise behavioural signatures of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the \textit{early} stages of the disease. We introduce bespoke behavioural models and analyses of key symptoms and deploy these on a novel dataset of longitudinal sensor data from persons with MCI and AD. We present preliminary findings that show the relationship between levels of sleep quality and wandering can be subtly different between patients in the early stages of dementia and healthy cohabiting controls.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Kacper Sokol, Raul Santos-Rodriguez et al.

Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem intuitively appealing it exhibits shortcomings not addressed in the current literature. First, a counterfactual example generated by the state-of-the-art systems is not necessarily representative of the underlying data distribution, and may therefore prescribe unachievable goals(e.g., an unsuccessful life insurance applicant with severe disability may be advised to do more sports). Secondly, the counterfactuals may not be based on a "feasible path" between the current state of the subject and the suggested one, making actionable recourse infeasible (e.g., low-skilled unsuccessful mortgage applicants may be told to double their salary, which may be hard without first increasing their skill level). These two shortcomings may render counterfactual explanations impractical and sometimes outright offensive. To address these two major flaws, first of all, we propose a new line of Counterfactual Explanations research aimed at providing actionable and feasible paths to transform a selected instance into one that meets a certain goal. Secondly, we propose FACE: an algorithmically sound way of uncovering these "feasible paths" based on the shortest path distances defined via density-weighted metrics. Our approach generates counterfactuals that are coherent with the underlying data distribution and supported by the "feasible paths" of change, which are achievable and can be tailored to the problem at hand.

Niall Twomey, Rafael Poyiadzi, Callum Mann et al.

This paper extends the class of ordinal regression models with a structured interpretation of the problem by applying a novel treatment of encoded labels. The net effect of this is to transform the underlying problem from an ordinal regression task to a (structured) classification task which we solve with conditional random fields, thereby achieving a coherent and probabilistic model in which all model parameters are jointly learnt. Importantly, we show that although we have cast ordinal regression to classification, our method still fall within the class of decomposition methods in the ordinal regression ontology. This is an important link since our experience is that many applications of machine learning to healthcare ignores completely the important nature of the label ordering, and hence these approaches should considered naive in this ontology. We also show that our model is flexible both in how it adapts to data manifolds and in terms of the operations that are available for practitioner to execute. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that the proposed approach overwhelmingly produces superior and often statistically significant results over baseline approaches on forty popular ordinal regression models, and demonstrate that the proposed model significantly out-performs baselines on synthetic and real datasets. Our implementation, together with scripts to reproduce the results of this work, will be available on a public GitHub repository.

Rafael Poyiadzi, Raul Santos-Rodriguez, Niall Twomey

Learning with Label Proportions (LLP) is the problem of recovering the underlying true labels given a dataset when the data is presented in the form of bags. This paradigm is particularly suitable in contexts where providing individual labels is expensive and label aggregates are more easily obtained. In the healthcare domain, it is a burden for a patient to keep a detailed diary of their daily routines, but often they will be amenable to provide higher level summaries of daily behavior. We present a novel and efficient graph-based algorithm that encourages local smoothness and exploits the global structure of the data, while preserving the `mass' of each bag.