Julian F. Schumann

Julian F. Schumann, Johan Engström, Leif Johnson et al.

Collision avoidance -- involving a rapid threat detection and quick execution of the appropriate evasive maneuver -- is a critical aspect of driving. However, existing models of human collision avoidance behavior are fragmented, focusing on specific scenarios or only describing certain aspects of the avoidance behavior, such as response times. This paper addresses these gaps by proposing a novel computational cognitive model of human collision avoidance behavior based on active inference. Active inference provides a unified approach to modeling human behavior: the minimization of free energy. Building on prior active inference work, our model incorporates established cognitive mechanisms such as evidence accumulation to simulate human responses in two distinct collision avoidance scenarios: front-to-rear lead vehicle braking and lateral incursion by an oncoming vehicle. We demonstrate that our model explains a wide range of previous empirical findings on human collision avoidance behavior. Specifically, the model closely reproduces both aggregate results from meta-analyses previously reported in the literature and detailed, scenario-specific effects observed in a recent driving simulator study, including response timing, maneuver selection, and execution. Our results highlight the potential of active inference as a unified framework for understanding and modeling human behavior in complex real-life driving tasks.

Julian F. Schumann, Johan Engström, Ran Wei et al.

Understanding how road users resolve space-sharing conflicts is important both for traffic safety and the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles. While existing models have captured specific aspects of such interactions (e.g., explicit communication), a theoretically-grounded computational framework has been lacking. In this paper, we extend a previously developed active inference-based driver behavior model to simulate interactive behavior of two agents. Our model captures three complementary mechanisms for uncertainty reduction in interaction: (i) implicit communication via direct behavioral coupling, (ii) reliance on normative expectations (stop signs, priority rules, etc.), and (iii) explicit communication. In a simplified intersection scenario, we show that normative and explicit communication cues can increase the likelihood of a successful conflict resolution. However, this relies on agents acting as expected. In situations where another agent (intentionally or unintentionally) violates normative expectations or communicates misleading information, reliance on these cues may induce collisions. These findings illustrate how active inference can provide a novel framework for modeling road user interactions which is also applicable in other fields.

Julian F. Schumann, Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Baymler Mathiesen et al.

Accurate and robust trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient autonomous driving, yet recent work has shown that even state-of-the-art prediction models are highly vulnerable to inputs being mildly perturbed by adversarial attacks. Although model vulnerabilities to such attacks have been studied, work on effective countermeasures remains limited. In this work, we develop and evaluate a new defense mechanism for trajectory prediction models based on randomized smoothing -- an approach previously applied successfully in other domains. We evaluate its ability to improve model robustness through a series of experiments that test different strategies of randomized smoothing. We show that our approach can consistently improve prediction robustness of multiple base trajectory prediction models in various datasets without compromising accuracy in non-adversarial settings. Our results demonstrate that randomized smoothing offers a simple and computationally inexpensive technique for mitigating adversarial attacks in trajectory prediction.

Julian F. Schumann, Jeroen Hagenus, Frederik Baymler Mathiesen et al.

Trajectory prediction is a key element of autonomous vehicle systems, enabling them to anticipate and react to the movements of other road users. Evaluating the robustness of prediction models against adversarial attacks is essential to ensure their reliability in real-world traffic. However, current approaches tend to focus on perturbing the past positions of surrounding agents, which can generate unrealistic scenarios and overlook critical vulnerabilities. This limitation may result in overly optimistic assessments of model performance in real-world conditions. In this work, we demonstrate that perturbing not just past but also future states of adversarial agents can uncover previously undetected weaknesses and thereby provide a more rigorous evaluation of model robustness. Our novel approach incorporates dynamic constraints and preserves tactical behaviors, enabling more effective and realistic adversarial attacks. We introduce new performance measures to assess the realism and impact of these adversarial trajectories. Testing our method on a state-of-the-art prediction model revealed significant increases in prediction errors and collision rates under adversarial conditions. Qualitative analysis further showed that our attacks can expose critical weaknesses, such as the inability of the model to detect potential collisions in what appear to be safe predictions. These results underscore the need for more comprehensive adversarial testing to better evaluate and improve the reliability of trajectory prediction models for autonomous vehicles.

Yongxi Cao, Julian F. Schumann, Jens Kober et al.

Deep generative models such as conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) have shown great promise for predicting trajectories of surrounding agents in autonomous vehicle planning. State-of-the-art models have achieved remarkable accuracy in such prediction tasks. Besides accuracy, diversity is also crucial for safe planning because human behaviors are inherently uncertain and multimodal. However, existing methods generally lack a scheme to generate controllably diverse trajectories, which is arguably more useful than randomly diversified trajectories, to the end of safe planning. To address this, we propose PrefCVAE, an augmented CVAE framework that uses weakly labeled preference pairs to imbue latent variables with semantic attributes. Using average velocity as an example attribute, we demonstrate that PrefCVAE enables controllable, semantically meaningful predictions without degrading baseline accuracy. Our results show the effectiveness of preference supervision as a cost-effective way to enhance sampling-based generative models.

Julian F. Schumann, Anna Mészáros, Jens Kober et al.

While trajectory prediction plays a critical role in enabling safe and effective path-planning in automated vehicles, standardized practices for evaluating such models remain underdeveloped. Recent efforts have aimed to unify dataset formats and model interfaces for easier comparisons, yet existing frameworks often fall short in supporting heterogeneous traffic scenarios, joint prediction models, or user documentation. In this work, we introduce STEP -- a new benchmarking framework that addresses these limitations by providing a unified interface for multiple datasets, enforcing consistent training and evaluation conditions, and supporting a wide range of prediction models. We demonstrate the capabilities of STEP in a number of experiments which reveal 1) the limitations of widely-used testing procedures, 2) the importance of joint modeling of agents for better predictions of interactions, and 3) the vulnerability of current state-of-the-art models against both distribution shifts and targeted attacks by adversarial agents. With STEP, we aim to shift the focus from the ``leaderboard'' approach to deeper insights about model behavior and generalization in complex multi-agent settings.

Anna Mészáros, Julian F. Schumann, Javier Alonso-Mora et al.

The estimation of probability density functions is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. However, common methods such as kernel density estimation (KDE) have been demonstrated to lack robustness, while more complex methods have not been evaluated in multi-modal estimation problems. In this paper, we present ROME (RObust Multi-modal Estimator), a non-parametric approach for density estimation which addresses the challenge of estimating multi-modal, non-normal, and highly correlated distributions. ROME utilizes clustering to segment a multi-modal set of samples into multiple uni-modal ones and then combines simple KDE estimates obtained for individual clusters in a single multi-modal estimate. We compared our approach to state-of-the-art methods for density estimation as well as ablations of ROME, showing that it not only outperforms established methods but is also more robust to a variety of distributions. Our results demonstrate that ROME can overcome the issues of over-fitting and over-smoothing exhibited by other estimators.

Frederik S. B. Westerhout, Julian F. Schumann, Arkady Zgonnikov

Understanding traffic participants' behaviour is crucial for predicting their future trajectories, aiding in developing safe and reliable planning systems for autonomous vehicles. Integrating cognitive processes and machine learning models has shown promise in other domains but is lacking in the trajectory forecasting of multiple traffic agents in large-scale autonomous driving datasets. This work investigates the state-of-the-art trajectory forecasting model Trajectron++ which we enhance by incorporating a smoothing term in its attention module. This attention mechanism mimics human attention inspired by cognitive science research indicating limits to attention switching. We evaluate the performance of the resulting Smooth-Trajectron++ model and compare it to the original model on various benchmarks, revealing the potential of incorporating insights from human cognition into trajectory prediction models.

Julian F. Schumann, Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Jens Kober et al.

The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming this issue. While data-driven models are commonly used to this end, they can be vulnerable in safety-critical edge cases. This has led to an interest in models incorporating cognitive theory, but as such models are commonly developed for explanatory purposes, this approach's effectiveness in behavior prediction has remained largely untested so far. In this article, we investigate the usefulness of the \emph{Commotions} model -- a novel cognitively plausible model incorporating the latest theories of human perception, decision-making, and motor control -- for predicting human behavior in gap acceptance scenarios, which entail many important traffic interactions such as lane changes and intersections. We show that this model can compete with or even outperform well-established data-driven prediction models across several naturalistic datasets. These results demonstrate the promise of incorporating cognitive theory in behavior prediction models for automated vehicles.

Julian F. Schumann, Alejandro M. Aragón

Finding global optima in high-dimensional optimization problems is extremely challenging since the number of function evaluations required to sufficiently explore the search space increases exponentially with its dimensionality. Furthermore, multimodal cost functions render local gradient-based search techniques ineffective. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to trim uninteresting regions of the search space where global optima are unlikely to be found by means of autoencoders, exploiting the lower intrinsic dimensionality of certain cost functions; optima are then searched over lower-dimensional latent spaces. The methodology is tested on benchmark functions and on multiple variations of a structural topology optimization problem, where we show that we can estimate this intrinsic lower dimensionality and based thereon obtain the global optimum at best or superior results compared to established optimization procedures at worst.