Kit Rodolfa

Kevin Wu, Eric Wu, Kit Rodolfa et al.

While the pace of development of AI has rapidly progressed in recent years, the implementation of safe and effective regulatory frameworks has lagged behind. In particular, the adaptive nature of AI models presents unique challenges to regulators as updating a model can improve its performance but also introduce safety risks. In the US, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been a forerunner in regulating and approving hundreds of AI medical devices. To better understand how AI is updated and its regulatory considerations, we systematically analyze the frequency and nature of updates in FDA-approved AI medical devices. We find that less than 2% of all devices report having been updated by being re-trained on new data. Meanwhile, nearly a quarter of devices report updates in the form of new functionality and marketing claims. As an illustrative case study, we analyze pneumothorax detection models and find that while model performance can degrade by as much as 0.18 AUC when evaluated on new sites, re-training on site-specific data can mitigate this performance drop, recovering up to 0.23 AUC. However, we also observed significant degradation on the original site after re-training using data from new sites, providing insight from one example that challenges the current one-model-fits-all approach to regulatory approvals. Our analysis provides an in-depth look at the current state of FDA-approved AI device updates and insights for future regulatory policies toward model updating and adaptive AI.

Catalina Vajiac, Arun Frey, Joachim Baumann et al.

Rental assistance programs provide individuals with financial assistance to prevent housing instabilities caused by evictions and avert homelessness. Since these programs operate under resource constraints, they must decide who to prioritize. Typically, funding is distributed by a reactive or first-come-first serve allocation process that does not systematically consider risk of future homelessness. We partnered with Allegheny County, PA to explore a proactive allocation approach that prioritizes individuals facing eviction based on their risk of future homelessness. Our ML system that uses state and county administrative data to accurately identify individuals in need of support outperforms simpler prioritization approaches by at least 20% while being fair and equitable across race and gender. Furthermore, our approach would identify 28% of individuals who are overlooked by the current process and end up homeless. Beyond improvements to the rental assistance program in Allegheny County, this study can inform the development of evidence-based decision support tools in similar contexts, including lessons about data needs, model design, evaluation, and field validation.

Kasun Amarasinghe, Kit Rodolfa, Hemank Lamba et al.

Explainability is highly-desired in Machine Learning (ML) systems supporting high-stakes policy decisions in areas such as health, criminal justice, education, and employment. While the field of explainable ML has expanded in recent years, much of this work has not taken real-world needs into account. A majority of proposed methods are designed with \textit{generic} explainability goals without well-defined use-cases or intended end-users and evaluated on simplified tasks, benchmark problems/datasets, or with proxy users (e.g., AMT). We argue that these simplified evaluation settings do not capture the nuances and complexities of real-world applications. As a result, the applicability and effectiveness of this large body of theoretical and methodological work in real-world applications are unclear. In this work, we take steps toward addressing this gap for the domain of public policy. First, we identify the primary use-cases of explainable ML within public policy problems. For each use case, we define the end-users of explanations and the specific goals the explanations have to fulfill. Finally, we map existing work in explainable ML to these use-cases, identify gaps in established capabilities, and propose research directions to fill those gaps to have a practical societal impact through ML. The contribution is 1) a methodology for explainable ML researchers to identify use cases and develop methods targeted at them and 2) using that methodology for the domain of public policy and giving an example for the researchers on developing explainable ML methods that result in real-world impact.