Dimitri Bertsekas

Daniel Garces, Sushmita Bhattacharya, Stephanie Gil et al.

We derive a learning framework to generate routing/pickup policies for a fleet of autonomous vehicles tasked with servicing stochastically appearing requests on a city map. We focus on policies that 1) give rise to coordination amongst the vehicles, thereby reducing wait times for servicing requests, 2) are non-myopic, and consider a-priori potential future requests, 3) can adapt to changes in the underlying demand distribution. Specifically, we are interested in policies that are adaptive to fluctuations of actual demand conditions in urban environments, such as on-peak vs. off-peak hours. We achieve this through a combination of (i) an online play algorithm that improves the performance of an offline-trained policy, and (ii) an offline approximation scheme that allows for adapting to changes in the underlying demand model. In particular, we achieve adaptivity of our learned policy to different demand distributions by quantifying a region of validity using the q-valid radius of a Wasserstein Ambiguity Set. We propose a mechanism for switching the originally trained offline approximation when the current demand is outside the original validity region. In this case, we propose to use an offline architecture, trained on a historical demand model that is closer to the current demand in terms of Wasserstein distance. We learn routing and pickup policies over real taxicab requests in San Francisco with high variability between on-peak and off-peak hours, demonstrating the ability of our method to adapt to real fluctuation in demand distributions. Our numerical results demonstrate that our method outperforms alternative rollout-based reinforcement learning schemes, as well as other classical methods from operations research.

Siddhant Bhambri, Amrita Bhattacharjee, Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper we address the solution of the popular Wordle puzzle, using new reinforcement learning methods, which apply more generally to adaptive control of dynamic systems and to classes of Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problems. These methods are based on approximation in value space and the rollout approach, admit a straightforward implementation, and provide improved performance over various heuristic approaches. For the Wordle puzzle, they yield on-line solution strategies that are very close to optimal at relatively modest computational cost. Our methods are viable for more complex versions of Wordle and related search problems, for which an optimal strategy would be impossible to compute. They are also applicable to a wide range of adaptive sequential decision problems that involve an unknown or frequently changing environment whose parameters are estimated on-line.

Kim Hammar, Yuchao Li, Tansu Alpcan et al.

Evolving security vulnerabilities and shifting operational conditions require frequent updates to network security policies. These updates include adjustments to incident response procedures and modifications to access controls, among others. Reinforcement learning methods have been proposed for automating such policy adaptations, but most methods in the research literature lack performance guarantees and adapt slowly to changes. In this paper, we address these limitations and present a method for computing security policies that is scalable, offers theoretical guarantees, and adapts quickly to changes. The method uses a model or simulator of the system, which is updated when changes occur, and combines three components: belief estimation through particle filtering, offline policy computation through feature-based aggregation, and online policy adaptation through rollout. In particular, feature-based aggregation enables scalable offline optimization of a policy, while rollout adapts the policy online to changes in the system model without repeating the offline optimization. We analyze the approximation error of the aggregation and show that the rollout efficiently adapts policies to changes under certain conditions. Simulations and testbed results demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on several benchmarks, including CAGE-2.

Dimitri Bertsekas

We provide a unifying approximate dynamic programming framework that applies to a broad variety of problems involving sequential estimation. We consider first the construction of surrogate cost functions for the purposes of optimization, and we focus on the special case of Bayesian optimization, using the rollout algorithm and some of its variations. We then discuss the more general case of sequential estimation of a random vector using optimal measurement selection, and its application to problems of stochastic and adaptive control. We distinguish between adaptive control of deterministic and stochastic systems: the former are better suited for the use of rollout, while the latter are well suited for the use of rollout with certainty equivalence approximations. As an example of the deterministic case, we discuss sequential decoding problems, and a rollout algorithm for the approximate solution of the Wordle and Mastermind puzzles, recently developed in the paper [BBB22].

Dimitri Bertsekas

We consider some classical optimization problems in path planning and network transport, and we introduce new auction-based algorithms for their optimal and suboptimal solution. The algorithms are based on mathematical ideas that are related to competitive bidding by persons for objects and the attendant market equilibrium, which underlie auction processes. However, the starting point of our algorithms is different, namely weighted and unweighted path construction in directed graphs, rather than assignment of persons to objects. The new algorithms have several potential advantages over existing methods: they are empirically faster in some important contexts, such as max-flow, they are well-suited for on-line replanning, and they can be adapted to distributed asynchronous operation. Moreover, they allow arbitrary initial prices, without complementary slackness restrictions, and thus are better-suited to take advantage of reinforcement learning methods that use off-line training with data, as well as on-line training during real-time operation. The new algorithms may also find use in reinforcement learning contexts involving approximation, such as multistep lookahead and tree search schemes, and/or rollout algorithms.

Yuchao Li, Dimitri Bertsekas

We consider a general aggregation framework for discounted finite-state infinite horizon dynamic programming (DP) problems. It defines an aggregate problem whose optimal cost function can be obtained off-line by exact DP and then used as a terminal cost approximation for an on-line reinforcement learning (RL) scheme. We derive a bound on the error between the optimal cost functions of the aggregate problem and the original problem. This bound was first derived by Tsitsiklis and van Roy [TvR96] for the special case of hard aggregation. Our bound is similar but applies far more broadly, including to soft aggregation and feature-based aggregation schemes.

Daniel Garces, Sushmita Bhattacharya, Dimitri Bertsekas et al.

In this paper, we focus on the autonomous multiagent taxi routing problem for a large urban environment where the location and number of future ride requests are unknown a-priori, but can be estimated by an empirical distribution. Recent theory has shown that a rollout algorithm with a stable base policy produces a near-optimal stable policy. In the routing setting, a policy is stable if its execution keeps the number of outstanding requests uniformly bounded over time. Although, rollout-based approaches are well-suited for learning cooperative multiagent policies with considerations for future demand, applying such methods to a large urban environment can be computationally expensive due to the large number of taxis required for stability. In this paper, we aim to address the computational bottleneck of multiagent rollout by proposing an approximate multiagent rollout-based two phase algorithm that reduces computational costs, while still achieving a stable near-optimal policy. Our approach partitions the graph into sectors based on the predicted demand and the maximum number of taxis that can run sequentially given the user's computational resources. The algorithm then applies instantaneous assignment (IA) for re-balancing taxis across sectors and a sector-wide multiagent rollout algorithm that is executed in parallel for each sector. We provide two main theoretical results: 1) characterize the number of taxis $m$ that is sufficient for IA to be stable; 2) derive a necessary condition on $m$ to maintain stability for IA as time goes to infinity. Our numerical results show that our approach achieves stability for an $m$ that satisfies the theoretical conditions. We also empirically demonstrate that our proposed two phase algorithm has equivalent performance to the one-at-a-time rollout over the entire map, but with significantly lower runtimes.

Atharva Gundawar, Yuchao Li, Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper we apply model predictive control (MPC), rollout, and reinforcement learning (RL) methodologies to computer chess. We introduce a new architecture for move selection, within which available chess engines are used as components. One engine is used to provide position evaluations in an approximation in value space MPC/RL scheme, while a second engine is used as nominal opponent, to emulate or approximate the moves of the true opponent player. We show that our architecture improves substantially the performance of the position evaluation engine. In other words our architecture provides an additional layer of intelligence, on top of the intelligence of the engines on which it is based. This is true for any engine, regardless of its strength: top engines such as Stockfish and Komodo Dragon (of varying strengths), as well as weaker engines. Structurally, our basic architecture selects moves by a one-move lookahead search, with an intermediate move generated by a nominal opponent engine, and followed by a position evaluation by another chess engine. Simpler schemes that forego the use of the nominal opponent, also perform better than the position evaluator, but not quite by as much. More complex schemes, involving multistep lookahead, may also be used and generally tend to perform better as the length of the lookahead increases. Theoretically, our methodology relies on generic cost improvement properties and the superlinear convergence framework of Newton's method, which fundamentally underlies approximation in value space, and related MPC/RL and rollout/policy iteration schemes. A critical requirement of this framework is that the first lookahead step should be executed exactly. This fact has guided our architectural choices, and is apparently an important factor in improving the performance of even the best available chess engines.

Yuchao Li, Fei Chen, Yingke Li et al.

We consider deterministic finite-horizon optimal control problems with a fixed initial state. We introduce an on-line policy iteration method, which starting from a given policy, however obtained, generates a sequence of cost improving policies and corresponding trajectories. Each policy produces a trajectory, which is used in turn to generate data for training the next policy. The method is motivated by problems that are repeatedly solved starting from the same initial state, including discrete optimization and path planning for repetitive tasks. For such problems, the method is fast enough to be used on-line. Under a natural consistency condition, we show that the sequence of costs of the generated policies is monotonically improving for the given initial state (but not necessarily for other states). We illustrate our results with computational studies from combinatorial optimization and 3-dimensional path planning for drones in the presence of obstacles. We also discuss briefly a stochastic counterpart of our algorithm. Our proposed framework combines elements of rollout and policy iteration with flexible trajectory-based policy representations, and applies to problems involving a single as well as multiple decision makers. It also provides a principled way to train neural network-based policies using trajectory data, while preserving monotonic cost improvement.

Yuchao Li, Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper we consider a transformer with an $n$-gram structure, such as the one underlying ChatGPT. The transformer provides next word probabilities, which can be used to generate word sequences. We consider methods for computing word sequences that are highly likely, based on these probabilities. Computing the optimal (i.e., most likely) word sequence starting with a given initial state is an intractable problem, so we propose methods to compute highly likely sequences of $N$ words in time that is a low order polynomial in $N$ and in the vocabulary size of the $n$-gram. These methods are based on the rollout approach from approximate dynamic programming, a form of single policy iteration, which can improve the performance of any given heuristic policy. In our case we use a greedy heuristic that generates as next word one that has the highest probability. We show with analysis, examples, and computational experimentation that our methods are capable of generating highly likely sequences with a modest increase in computation over the greedy heuristic. While our analysis and experiments are focused on Markov chains of the type arising in transformer and ChatGPT-like models, our methods apply to general finite-state Markov chains, and related inference applications of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where Viterbi decoding is used extensively.

Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper we aim to provide analysis and insights (often based on visualization), which explain the beneficial effects of on-line decision making on top of off-line training. In particular, through a unifying abstract mathematical framework, we show that the principal AlphaZero/TD-Gammon ideas of approximation in value space and rollout apply very broadly to deterministic and stochastic optimal control problems, involving both discrete and continuous search spaces. Moreover, these ideas can be effectively integrated with other important methodologies such as model predictive control, adaptive control, decentralized control, discrete and Bayesian optimization, neural network-based value and policy approximations, and heuristic algorithms for discrete optimization.

Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper we propose an on-line policy iteration (PI) algorithm for finite-state infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming, whereby the policy improvement operation is done on-line, only for the states that are encountered during operation of the system. This allows the continuous updating/improvement of the current policy, thus resulting in a form of on-line PI that incorporates the improved controls into the current policy as new states and controls are generated. The algorithm converges in a finite number of stages to a type of locally optimal policy, and suggests the possibility of variants of PI and multiagent PI where the policy improvement is simplified. Moreover, the algorithm can be used with on-line replanning, and is also well-suited for on-line PI algorithms with value and policy approximations.

Sushmita Bhattacharya, Siva Kailas, Sahil Badyal et al.

In this paper we consider infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming problems with finite state and control spaces, partial state observations, and a multiagent structure. We discuss and compare algorithms that simultaneously or sequentially optimize the agents' controls by using multistep lookahead, truncated rollout with a known base policy, and a terminal cost function approximation. Our methods specifically address the computational challenges of partially observable multiagent problems. In particular: 1) We consider rollout algorithms that dramatically reduce required computation while preserving the key cost improvement property of the standard rollout method. The per-step computational requirements for our methods are on the order of $O(Cm)$ as compared with $O(C^m)$ for standard rollout, where $C$ is the maximum cardinality of the constraint set for the control component of each agent, and $m$ is the number of agents. 2) We show that our methods can be applied to challenging problems with a graph structure, including a class of robot repair problems whereby multiple robots collaboratively inspect and repair a system under partial information. 3) We provide a simulation study that compares our methods with existing methods, and demonstrate that our methods can handle larger and more complex partially observable multiagent problems (state space size $10^{37}$ and control space size $10^{7}$, respectively). Finally, we incorporate our multiagent rollout algorithms as building blocks in an approximate policy iteration scheme, where successive rollout policies are approximated by using neural network classifiers. While this scheme requires a strictly off-line implementation, it works well in our computational experiments and produces additional significant performance improvement over the single online rollout iteration method.

Dimitri Bertsekas

We consider infinite horizon dynamic programming problems, where the control at each stage consists of several distinct decisions, each one made by one of several agents. In an earlier work we introduced a policy iteration algorithm, where the policy improvement is done one-agent-at-a-time in a given order, with knowledge of the choices of the preceding agents in the order. As a result, the amount of computation for each policy improvement grows linearly with the number of agents, as opposed to exponentially for the standard all-agents-at-once method. For the case of a finite-state discounted problem, we showed convergence to an agent-by-agent optimal policy. In this paper, this result is extended to value iteration and optimistic versions of policy iteration, as well as to more general DP problems where the Bellman operator is a contraction mapping, such as stochastic shortest path problems with all policies being proper.

Dimitri Bertsekas

We consider an extension of the rollout algorithm that applies to constrained deterministic dynamic programming, including challenging combinatorial optimization problems. The algorithm relies on a suboptimal policy, called base heuristic. Under suitable assumptions, we show that if the base heuristic produces a feasible solution, the rollout algorithm has a cost improvement property: it produces a feasible solution, whose cost is no worse than the base heuristic's cost. We then focus on multiagent problems, where the control at each stage consists of multiple components (one per agent), which are coupled either through the cost function or the constraints or both. We show that the cost improvement property is maintained with an alternative implementation that has greatly reduced computational requirements, and makes possible the use of rollout in problems with many agents. We demonstrate this alternative algorithm by applying it to layered graph problems that involve both a spatial and a temporal structure. We consider in some detail a prominent example of such problems: multidimensional assignment, where we use the auction algorithm for 2-dimensional assignment as a base heuristic. This auction algorithm is particularly well-suited for our context, because through the use of prices, it can advantageously use the solution of an assignment problem as a starting point for solving other related assignment problems, and this can greatly speed up the execution of the rollout algorithm.

Sushmita Bhattacharya, Sahil Badyal, Thomas Wheeler et al.

In this paper we consider infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming problems with finite state and control spaces, and partial state observations. We discuss an algorithm that uses multistep lookahead, truncated rollout with a known base policy, and a terminal cost function approximation. This algorithm is also used for policy improvement in an approximate policy iteration scheme, where successive policies are approximated by using a neural network classifier. A novel feature of our approach is that it is well suited for distributed computation through an extended belief space formulation and the use of a partitioned architecture, which is trained with multiple neural networks. We apply our methods in simulation to a class of sequential repair problems where a robot inspects and repairs a pipeline with potentially several rupture sites under partial information about the state of the pipeline.

Dimitri Bertsekas

We propose a new aggregation framework for approximate dynamic programming, which provides a connection with rollout algorithms, approximate policy iteration, and other single and multistep lookahead methods. The central novel characteristic is the use of a bias function $V$ of the state, which biases the values of the aggregate cost function towards their correct levels. The classical aggregation framework is obtained when $V\equiv0$, but our scheme works best when $V$ is a known reasonably good approximation to the optimal cost function $J^*$. When $V$ is equal to the cost function $J_μ$ of some known policy $μ$ and there is only one aggregate state, our scheme is equivalent to the rollout algorithm based on $μ$ (i.e., the result of a single policy improvement starting with the policy $μ$). When $V=J_μ$ and there are multiple aggregate states, our aggregation approach can be used as a more powerful form of improvement of $μ$. Thus, when combined with an approximate policy evaluation scheme, our approach can form the basis for a new and enhanced form of approximate policy iteration. When $V$ is a generic bias function, our scheme is equivalent to approximation in value space with lookahead function equal to $V$ plus a local correction within each aggregate state. The local correction levels are obtained by solving a low-dimensional aggregate DP problem, yielding an arbitrarily close approximation to $J^*$, when the number of aggregate states is sufficiently large. Except for the bias function, the aggregate DP problem is similar to the one of the classical aggregation framework, and its algorithmic solution by simulation or other methods is nearly identical to one for classical aggregation, assuming values of $V$ are available when needed.

Dimitri Bertsekas

We consider finite and infinite horizon dynamic programming problems, where the control at each stage consists of several distinct decisions, each one made by one of several agents. We introduce an approach, whereby at every stage, each agent's decision is made by executing a local rollout algorithm that uses a base policy, together with some coordinating information from the other agents. The amount of local computation required at every stage by each agent is independent of the number of agents, while the amount of total computation (over all agents) grows linearly with the number of agents. By contrast, with the standard rollout algorithm, the amount of total computation grows exponentially with the number of agents. Despite the drastic reduction in required computation, we show that our algorithm has the fundamental cost improvement property of rollout: an improved performance relative to the base policy. We also discuss possibilities to improve further the method's computational efficiency through limited agent coordination and parallelization of the agents' computations. Finally, we explore related approximate policy iteration algorithms for infinite horizon problems, and we prove that the cost improvement property steers the algorithm towards convergence to an agent-by-agent optimal policy.

Huizhen Yu, Dimitri Bertsekas

In this paper, we propose a new lower approximation scheme for POMDP with discounted and average cost criterion. The approximating functions are determined by their values at a finite number of belief points, and can be computed efficiently using value iteration algorithms for finite-state MDP. While for discounted problems several lower approximation schemes have been proposed earlier, ours seems the first of its kind for average cost problems. We focus primarily on the average cost case, and we show that the corresponding approximation can be computed efficiently using multi-chain algorithms for finite-state MDP. We give a preliminary analysis showing that regardless of the existence of the optimal average cost J in the POMDP, the approximation obtained is a lower bound of the liminf optimal average cost function, and can also be used to calculate an upper bound on the limsup optimal average cost function, as well as bounds on the cost of executing the stationary policy associated with the approximation. Weshow the convergence of the cost approximation, when the optimal average cost is constant and the optimal differential cost is continuous.