Christian Schröder de Witt

Tabish Rashid, Mikayel Samvelyan, Christian Schroeder de Witt et al.

In many real-world settings, a team of agents must coordinate its behaviour while acting in a decentralised fashion. At the same time, it is often possible to train the agents in a centralised fashion where global state information is available and communication constraints are lifted. Learning joint action-values conditioned on extra state information is an attractive way to exploit centralised learning, but the best strategy for then extracting decentralised policies is unclear. Our solution is QMIX, a novel value-based method that can train decentralised policies in a centralised end-to-end fashion. QMIX employs a mixing network that estimates joint action-values as a monotonic combination of per-agent values. We structurally enforce that the joint-action value is monotonic in the per-agent values, through the use of non-negative weights in the mixing network, which guarantees consistency between the centralised and decentralised policies. To evaluate the performance of QMIX, we propose the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) as a new benchmark for deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. We evaluate QMIX on a challenging set of SMAC scenarios and show that it significantly outperforms existing multi-agent reinforcement learning methods.

Saeid Naderiparizi, Adam Ścibior, Andreas Munk et al.

Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework.

Bradley Gram-Hansen, Christian Schröder de Witt, Tom Rainforth et al.

Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this paper, we introduce an approach that allows one to treat a large class of population-based epidemiology simulators as probabilistic generative models. This is achieved by hijacking the internal random number generator calls, through the use of a universal probabilistic programming system (PPS). In contrast to other methods, our approach can be easily retrofitted to simulators written in popular industrial programming frameworks. We demonstrate that our method can be used for interpretable introspection and inference, thus shedding light on black-box simulators. This reinstates much-needed trust between policymakers and evidence-based methods.