Haobo Qi

Yiming Zhong, Yinuo Ren, Guangyao Cao et al. · pku

Recent advances on time series forecasting mainly focus on improving the forecasting models themselves. However, when the time series data suffer from potential structural breaks or concept drifts, the forecasting performance might be significantly reduced. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called Optimal Starting Point Time Series Forecast (OSP-TSP) for optimal forecasting, which can be combined with existing time series forecasting models. By adjusting the sequence length via leveraging the XGBoost and LightGBM models, the proposed approach can determine the optimal starting point (OSP) of the time series and then enhance the prediction performances of the base forecasting models. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, comprehensive empirical analysis have been conducted on the M4 dataset and other real world datasets. Empirical results indicate that predictions based on the OSP-TSP approach consistently outperform those using the complete time series dataset. Moreover, comparison results reveals that combining our approach with existing forecasting models can achieve better prediction accuracy, which also reflect the advantages of the proposed approach.

Xuetong Li, Yuan Gao, Hong Chang et al.

This paper presents a selective review of statistical computation methods for massive data analysis. A huge amount of statistical methods for massive data computation have been rapidly developed in the past decades. In this work, we focus on three categories of statistical computation methods: (1) distributed computing, (2) subsampling methods, and (3) minibatch gradient techniques. The first class of literature is about distributed computing and focuses on the situation, where the dataset size is too huge to be comfortably handled by one single computer. In this case, a distributed computation system with multiple computers has to be utilized. The second class of literature is about subsampling methods and concerns about the situation, where the sample size of dataset is small enough to be placed on one single computer but too large to be easily processed by its memory as a whole. The last class of literature studies those minibatch gradient related optimization techniques, which have been extensively used for optimizing various deep learning models.