Patrick Kuiper, Sirui Lin, Jose Blanchet et al.
We develop a novel generative model to simulate vehicle health and forecast faults, conditioned on practical operational considerations. The model, trained on data from the US Army's Predictive Logistics program, aims to support predictive maintenance. It forecasts faults far enough in advance to execute a maintenance intervention before a breakdown occurs. The model incorporates real-world factors that affect vehicle health. It also allows us to understand the vehicle's condition by analyzing operating data, and characterizing each vehicle into discrete states. Importantly, the model predicts the time to first fault with high accuracy. We compare its performance to other models and demonstrate its successful training.