Thi Kim Nhung Dang

Thi Kim Nhung Dang, Milan Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg, Mariëlle Stoelinga

Fault tree analysis is a vital method of assessing safety risks. It helps to identify potential causes of accidents, assess their likelihood and severity, and suggest preventive measures. Quantitative analysis of fault trees is often done via the dependability metrics that compute the system's failure behaviour over time. However, the lack of precise data is a major obstacle to quantitative analysis, and so to reliability analysis. Fuzzy logic is a popular framework for dealing with ambiguous values and has applications in many domains. A number of fuzzy approaches have been proposed to fault tree analysis, but -- to the best of our knowledge -- none of them provide rigorous definitions or algorithms for computing fuzzy unreliability values. In this paper, we define a rigorous framework for fuzzy unreliability values. In addition, we provide a bottom-up algorithm to efficiently calculate fuzzy reliability for a system. The algorithm incorporates the concept of $α$-cuts method. That is, performing binary algebraic operations on intervals on horizontally discretised $α$-cut representations of fuzzy numbers. The method preserves the nonlinearity of fuzzy unreliability. Finally, we illustrate the results obtained from two case studies.

Thi Kim Nhung Dang, Doina Bucur, Berk Atil et al.

Small and medium enterprises rely on detailed Web analytics to be informed about their market and competition. Focused crawlers meet this demand by crawling and indexing specific parts of the Web. Critically, a focused crawler must quickly find new pages that have not yet been indexed. Since a new page can be discovered only by following a new outlink, predicting new outlinks is very relevant in practice. In the literature, many feature designs have been proposed for predicting changes in the Web. In this work we provide a structured analysis of this problem, using new outlinks as our running prediction target. Specifically, we unify earlier feature designs in a taxonomic arrangement of features along two dimensions: static versus dynamic features, and features of a page versus features of the network around it. Within this taxonomy, complemented by our new (mainly, dynamic network) features, we identify best predictors for new outlinks. Our main conclusion is that most informative features are the recent history of new outlinks on a page itself, and of its content-related pages. Hence, we propose a new 'look back, look around' (LBLA) model, that uses only these features. With the obtained predictions, we design a number of scoring functions to guide a focused crawler to pages with most new outlinks, and compare their performance. The LBLA approach proved extremely effective, outperforming other models including those that use a most complete set of features. One of the learners we use, is the recent NGBoost method that assumes a Poisson distribution for the number of new outlinks on a page, and learns its parameters. This connects the two so far unrelated avenues in the literature: predictions based on features of a page, and those based on probabilistic modelling. All experiments were carried out on an original dataset, made available by a commercial focused crawler.