Annika Lang

Sondre Wiersdalen, Mike Pereira, Annika Lang et al.

This technical note examines exponential stability of the null solution to a large class of compartmental systems governed by ordinary differential equations. Sufficient conditions under which these systems admit a linear Lyapunov function are provided. The coefficients of the Lyapunov functions and the exponential decay rate they yield are obtained from an eigenvalue problem. For a special case of the system class considered, we derive an equivalence between attractivity of the null solution and the existence of a linear Lyapunov function.

Annika Lang, Andrea Papini, Verena Schwarz

The stochastic heat equation on the sphere driven by an additive square-integra\-ble Lévy process is approximated by a spectral method in space and forward and backward Euler--Maruyama schemes in time. New regularity results are proven for its solution. The spectral approximation is based on a truncation of the series expansion with respect to the spherical harmonic functions. For a given regularity of the initial condition and two different settings of regularity for the driving noise, strong convergence rates for the spectral approximation and for the Euler--Maruyama methods are proven. Moreover, weak rates of up to twice the strong rates are shown. Numerical simulations confirm the theoretical results.

Mike Pereira, Annika Lang, Balázs Kulcsár

In this work, we propose an algorithm performing short-term predictions of the flux of vehicles on a stretch of road, using past measurements of the flux. This algorithm is based on a physics-aware recurrent neural network. A discretization of a macroscopic traffic flow model (using the so-called Traffic Reaction Model) is embedded in the architecture of the network and yields flux predictions based on estimated and predicted space-time dependent traffic parameters. These parameters are themselves obtained using a succession of LSTM ans simple recurrent neural networks. Besides, on top of the predictions, the algorithm yields a smoothing of its inputs which is also physically-constrained by the macroscopic traffic flow model. The algorithm is tested on raw flux measurements obtained from loop detectors.

Annika Lang, Andreas Petersson, Andreas Thalhammer

The (asymptotic) behaviour of the second moment of solutions to stochastic differential equations is treated in mean-square stability analysis. This property is discussed for approximations of infinite-dimensional stochastic differential equations and necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring mean-square stability are given. They are applied to typical discretization schemes such as combinations of spectral Galerkin, finite element, Euler-Maruyama, Milstein, Crank-Nicolson, and forward and backward Euler methods. Furthermore, results on the relation to stability properties of corresponding analytical solutions are provided. Simulations of the stochastic heat equation illustrate the theory.

Annika Lang

It is a well-known rule of thumb that approximations of stochastic partial differential equations have essentially twice the order of weak convergence compared to the corresponding order of strong convergence. This is already known for many approximations of stochastic (ordinary) differential equations while it is recent research for stochastic partial differential equations. In this note it is shown how the availability of weak convergence results influences the number of samples in multilevel Monte Carlo schemes and therefore reduces the computational complexity of these schemes for a given accuracy of the approximations.

Annika Lang, Andreas Petersson

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation. If the convergence of Y_n to Y in terms of the error |E[Y - Y_n]| is to be simulated, this will typically be done by a Monte Carlo method, i.e., |E[Y] - E_N[Y_n]| is computed. In this article upper and lower bounds for the additional error caused by this are determined and compared to those of |E_N[Y - Y_n]|, which are found to be smaller. Furthermore, the corresponding results for multilevel Monte Carlo estimators, for which the additional sampling error converges with the same rate as |E[Y - Y_n]|, are presented. Simulations of a stochastic heat equation driven by multiplicative Wiener noise and a geometric Brownian motion are performed which confirm the theoretical results and show the consequences of the presented theory for weak error simulations.