H. Xi

Shuoyuan Wang, Jindong Wang, HuaJun Xi et al.

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) models often suffer from performance degradation in real-world applications due to distribution shifts in activity patterns across individuals. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) is an emerging learning paradigm that aims to utilize the test stream to adjust predictions in real-time inference, which has not been explored in HAR before. However, the high computational cost of optimization-based TTA algorithms makes it intractable to run on resource-constrained edge devices. In this paper, we propose an Optimization-Free Test-Time Adaptation (OFTTA) framework for sensor-based HAR. OFTTA adjusts the feature extractor and linear classifier simultaneously in an optimization-free manner. For the feature extractor, we propose Exponential DecayTest-time Normalization (EDTN) to replace the conventional batch normalization (CBN) layers. EDTN combines CBN and Test-time batch Normalization (TBN) to extract reliable features against domain shifts with TBN's influence decreasing exponentially in deeper layers. For the classifier, we adjust the prediction by computing the distance between the feature and the prototype, which is calculated by a maintained support set. In addition, the update of the support set is based on the pseudo label, which can benefit from reliable features extracted by EDTN. Extensive experiments on three public cross-person HAR datasets and two different TTA settings demonstrate that OFTTA outperforms the state-of-the-art TTA approaches in both classification performance and computational efficiency. Finally, we verify the superiority of our proposed OFTTA on edge devices, indicating possible deployment in real applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/Claydon-Wang/OFTTA.

Jianguo Huang, Huajun Xi, Linjun Zhang et al.

Conformal prediction is a statistical framework that generates prediction sets containing ground-truth labels with a desired coverage guarantee. The predicted probabilities produced by machine learning models are generally miscalibrated, leading to large prediction sets in conformal prediction. To address this issue, we propose a novel algorithm named $\textit{Sorted Adaptive Prediction Sets}$ (SAPS), which discards all the probability values except for the maximum softmax probability. The key idea behind SAPS is to minimize the dependence of the non-conformity score on the probability values while retaining the uncertainty information. In this manner, SAPS can produce compact prediction sets and communicate instance-wise uncertainty. Extensive experiments validate that SAPS not only lessens the prediction sets but also broadly enhances the conditional coverage rate of prediction sets.

Huajun Xi, Jianguo Huang, Kangdao Liu et al.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate classifiers, assuming that confidence calibration benefits conformal prediction. However, the specific impact of confidence calibration on conformal prediction remains underexplored. In this work, we make two key discoveries about the impact of confidence calibration methods on adaptive conformal prediction. Firstly, we empirically show that current confidence calibration methods (e.g., temperature scaling) typically lead to larger prediction sets in adaptive conformal prediction. Secondly, by investigating the role of temperature value, we observe that high-confidence predictions can enhance the efficiency of adaptive conformal prediction. Theoretically, we prove that predictions with higher confidence result in smaller prediction sets on expectation. This finding implies that the rescaling parameters in these calibration methods, when optimized with cross-entropy loss, might counteract the goal of generating efficient prediction sets. To address this issue, we propose Conformal Temperature Scaling (ConfTS), a variant of temperature scaling with a novel loss function designed to enhance the efficiency of prediction sets. This approach can be extended to optimize the parameters of other post-hoc methods of confidence calibration. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method improves existing adaptive conformal prediction methods in classification tasks, especially with LLMs.

Huajun Xi, Kangdao Liu, Hao Zeng et al.

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that adaptively construct prediction sets to accommodate distribution shifts. However, existing algorithms typically assume perfect label accuracy which rarely holds in practice. In this work, we investigate the robustness of online conformal prediction under uniform label noise with a known noise rate, in both constant and dynamic learning rate schedules. We show that label noise causes a persistent gap between the actual mis-coverage rate and the desired rate $α$, leading to either overestimated or underestimated coverage guarantees. To address this issue, we propose Noise Robust Online Conformal Prediction (dubbed NR-OCP) by updating the threshold with a novel robust pinball loss, which provides an unbiased estimate of clean pinball loss without requiring ground-truth labels. Our theoretical analysis shows that NR-OCP eliminates the coverage gap in both constant and dynamic learning rate schedules, achieving a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2})$ for both empirical and expected coverage errors under uniform label noise. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by achieving both precise coverage and improved efficiency.

Kangdao Liu, Huajun Xi, Chi-Man Vong et al.

Selecting a subset of promising candidates from a large pool is crucial across various scientific and real-world applications. Conformal selection offers a distribution-free and model-agnostic framework for candidate selection with uncertainty quantification. While effective in offline settings, its application to online scenarios, where data arrives sequentially, poses challenges. Notably, conformal selection permits the deselection of previously selected candidates, which is incompatible with applications requiring irreversible selection decisions. This limitation is particularly evident in resource-intensive sequential processes, such as drug discovery, where advancing a compound to subsequent stages renders reversal impractical. To address this issue, we extend conformal selection to an online Accept-to-Reject Changes (ARC) procedure: non-selected data points can be reconsidered for selection later, and once a candidate is selected, the decision is irreversible. Specifically, we propose a novel conformal selection method, Online Conformal Selection with Accept-to-Reject Changes (dubbed OCS-ARC), which incorporates online Benjamini-Hochberg procedure into the candidate selection process. We provide theoretical guarantees that OCS-ARC controls the false discovery rate (FDR) at or below the nominal level at any timestep under both i.i.d. and exchangeable data assumptions. Additionally, we theoretically show that our approach naturally extends to multivariate response settings. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that OCS-ARC significantly improves selection power over the baseline while maintaining valid FDR control across all examined timesteps.