Zack Xue

Youssef Drissi, Markus Ettl, Shivaram Subramanian et al.

We introduce COAT (Counterfactual Optimal Action Tree), a framework for learning interpretable prescriptive policies from observational data. COAT combines counterfactual outcome estimation with large-scale mixed-integer optimization, using column generation to translate causal predictions into feasible, transparent decisions under business and regulatory constraints. We apply COAT to airline ancillary pricing, a setting characterized by complex business rules and limited experimental flexibility. In a 17-week field pilot with a major global airline, COAT increased upsell revenue per booking by 6.9%, with the airline projecting \$50-\$150 million in incremental annual premium seat revenue across eligible domestic markets. The success of the pilot led to scaled adoption and informed broader AI-driven decision initiatives within the organization.

Wei Sun, Scott McFaddin, Linh Ha Tran et al.

Prescriptive AI represents a transformative shift in decision-making, offering causal insights and actionable recommendations. Despite its huge potential, enterprise adoption often faces several challenges. The first challenge is caused by the limitations of observational data for accurate causal inference which is typically a prerequisite for good decision-making. The second pertains to the interpretability of recommendations, which is crucial for enterprise decision-making settings. The third challenge is the silos between data scientists and business users, hindering effective collaboration. This paper outlines an initiative from IBM Research, aiming to address some of these challenges by offering a suite of prescriptive AI solutions. Leveraging insights from various research papers, the solution suite includes scalable causal inference methods, interpretable decision-making approaches, and the integration of large language models (LLMs) to bridge communication gaps via a conversation agent. A proof-of-concept, PresAIse, demonstrates the solutions' potential by enabling non-ML experts to interact with prescriptive AI models via a natural language interface, democratizing advanced analytics for strategic decision-making.