R. Teal Witter

Lucas Rosenblatt, R. Teal Witter

Making fair decisions is crucial to ethically implementing machine learning algorithms in social settings. In this work, we consider the celebrated definition of counterfactual fairness [Kusner et al., NeurIPS, 2017]. We begin by showing that an algorithm which satisfies counterfactual fairness also satisfies demographic parity, a far simpler fairness constraint. Similarly, we show that all algorithms satisfying demographic parity can be trivially modified to satisfy counterfactual fairness. Together, our results indicate that counterfactual fairness is basically equivalent to demographic parity, which has important implications for the growing body of work on counterfactual fairness. We then validate our theoretical findings empirically, analyzing three existing algorithms for counterfactual fairness against three simple benchmarks. We find that two simple benchmark algorithms outperform all three existing algorithms -- in terms of fairness, accuracy, and efficiency -- on several data sets. Our analysis leads us to formalize a concrete fairness goal: to preserve the order of individuals within protected groups. We believe transparency around the ordering of individuals within protected groups makes fair algorithms more trustworthy. By design, the two simple benchmark algorithms satisfy this goal while the existing algorithms for counterfactual fairness do not.

Santo M. A. R. Thies, Hubert Baniecki, R. Teal Witter et al.

Shapley and Banzhaf interactions capture the complex dynamics inherent in modern machine learning applications. However, current estimators for these higher-order interactions trade off between speed and accuracy. To overcome this limitation, we introduce ProxySHAP. ProxySHAP reconciles the high sample efficiency of tree-based proxy models with a principled path to consistency via residual correction. On a theoretical level, we derive a polynomial-time generalization of interventional TreeSHAP to compute exact interaction indices for tree ensembles, successfully bypassing exponential tree-depth dependencies in prior methods. Furthermore, we formally analyze the residual adjustment strategy, characterizing the specific conditions under which Maximum Sample Reuse (MSR) corrects proxy bias without its variance scaling exponentially with interaction size. Extensive benchmarking demonstrates that ProxySHAP sets a new state-of-the-art standard for approximation quality, including in large-scale applications with thousands of features. By achieving the lowest error in both small- and large-budget regimes, ProxySHAP significantly outperforms the prior best estimators ProxySPEX and KernelSHAP-IQ, while also delivering superior performance on downstream explainability tasks.

R. Teal Witter, Álvaro Parafita, Tomas Garriga et al.

Structural Causal Models (SCM) are a powerful framework for describing complicated dynamics across the natural sciences. A particularly elegant way of interpreting SCMs is do-Shapley, a game-theoretic method of quantifying the average effect of $d$ variables across exponentially many interventions. Like Shapley values, computing do-Shapley values generally requires evaluating exponentially many terms. The foundation of our work is a reformulation of do-Shapley values in terms of the irreducible sets of the underlying SCM. Leveraging this insight, we can exactly compute do-Shapley values in time linear in the number of irreducible sets $r$, which itself can range from $d$ to $2^d$ depending on the graph structure of the SCM. Since $r$ is unknown a priori, we complement the exact algorithm with an estimator that, like general Shapley value estimators, can be run with any query budget. As the query budget approaches $r$, our estimators can produce more accurate estimates than prior methods by several orders of magnitude, and, when the budget reaches $r$, return the Shapley values up to machine precision. Beyond computational speed, we also reduce the identification burden: we prove that non-parametric identifiability of do-Shapley values requires only the identification of interventional effects for the $d$ singleton coalitions, rather than all classes.

R. Teal Witter, Christopher Musco

Estimating the effect of treatments from natural experiments, where treatments are pre-assigned, is an important and well-studied problem. We introduce a novel natural experiment dataset obtained from an early childhood literacy nonprofit. Surprisingly, applying over 20 established estimators to the dataset produces inconsistent results in evaluating the nonprofit's efficacy. To address this, we create a benchmark to evaluate estimator accuracy using synthetic outcomes, whose design was guided by domain experts. The benchmark extensively explores performance as real world conditions like sample size, treatment correlation, and propensity score accuracy vary. Based on our benchmark, we observe that the class of doubly robust treatment effect estimators, which are based on simple and intuitive regression adjustment, generally outperform other more complicated estimators by orders of magnitude. To better support our theoretical understanding of doubly robust estimators, we derive a closed form expression for the variance of any such estimator that uses dataset splitting to obtain an unbiased estimate. This expression motivates the design of a new doubly robust estimator that uses a novel loss function when fitting functions for regression adjustment. We release the dataset and benchmark in a Python package; the package is built in a modular way to facilitate new datasets and estimators.

Fabian Fumagalli, R. Teal Witter, Christopher Musco

Shapley values have emerged as a central game-theoretic tool in explainable AI (XAI). However, computing Shapley values exactly requires $2^d$ game evaluations for a model with $d$ features. Lundberg and Lee's KernelSHAP algorithm has emerged as a leading method for avoiding this exponential cost. KernelSHAP approximates Shapley values by approximating the game as a linear function, which is fit using a small number of game evaluations for random feature subsets. In this work, we extend KernelSHAP by approximating the game via higher degree polynomials, which capture non-linear interactions between features. Our resulting PolySHAP method yields empirically better Shapley value estimates for various benchmark datasets, and we prove that these estimates are consistent. Moreover, we connect our approach to paired sampling (antithetic sampling), a ubiquitous modification to KernelSHAP that improves empirical accuracy. We prove that paired sampling outputs exactly the same Shapley value approximations as second-order PolySHAP, without ever fitting a degree 2 polynomial. To the best of our knowledge, this finding provides the first strong theoretical justification for the excellent practical performance of the paired sampling heuristic.

R. Teal Witter, Lucas Rosenblatt

The open streets initiative "opens" streets to pedestrians and bicyclists by closing them to cars and trucks. The initiative, adopted by many cities across North America, increases community space in urban environments. But could open streets also make cities safer and less congested? We study this question by framing the choice of which streets to open as a reinforcement learning problem. In order to simulate the impact of opening streets, we first compare models for predicting vehicle collisions given network and temporal data. We find that a recurrent graph neural network, leveraging the graph structure and the short-term temporal dependence of the data, gives the best predictive performance. Then, with the ability to simulate collisions and traffic, we frame a reinforcement learning problem to find which streets to open. We compare the streets in the NYC Open Streets program to those proposed by a Q-learning algorithm. We find that the streets proposed by the Q-learning algorithm have reliably better outcomes, while streets in the program have similar outcomes to randomly selected streets. We present our work as a step toward principally choosing which streets to open for safer and less congested cities. All our code and data are available on Github.

Kasra Arabi, Benjamin Feuer, R. Teal Witter et al.

As the quality of image generators continues to improve, deepfakes become a topic of considerable societal debate. Image watermarking allows responsible model owners to detect and label their AI-generated content, which can mitigate the harm. Yet, current state-of-the-art methods in image watermarking remain vulnerable to forgery and removal attacks. This vulnerability occurs in part because watermarks distort the distribution of generated images, unintentionally revealing information about the watermarking techniques. In this work, we first demonstrate a distortion-free watermarking method for images, based on a diffusion model's initial noise. However, detecting the watermark requires comparing the initial noise reconstructed for an image to all previously used initial noises. To mitigate these issues, we propose a two-stage watermarking framework for efficient detection. During generation, we augment the initial noise with generated Fourier patterns to embed information about the group of initial noises we used. For detection, we (i) retrieve the relevant group of noises, and (ii) search within the given group for an initial noise that might match our image. This watermarking approach achieves state-of-the-art robustness to forgery and removal against a large battery of attacks.

Kasra Arabi, R. Teal Witter, Chinmay Hegde et al.

Generative models have rapidly evolved to generate realistic outputs. However, their synthetic outputs increasingly challenge the clear distinction between natural and AI-generated content, necessitating robust watermarking techniques. Watermarks are typically expected to preserve the integrity of the target image, withstand removal attempts, and prevent unauthorized replication onto unrelated images. To address this need, recent methods embed persistent watermarks into images produced by diffusion models using the initial noise. Yet, to do so, they either distort the distribution of generated images or rely on searching through a long dictionary of used keys for detection. In this paper, we propose a novel watermarking method that embeds semantic information about the generated image directly into the watermark, enabling a distortion-free watermark that can be verified without requiring a database of key patterns. Instead, the key pattern can be inferred from the semantic embedding of the image using locality-sensitive hashing. Furthermore, conditioning the watermark detection on the original image content improves robustness against forgery attacks. To demonstrate that, we consider two largely overlooked attack strategies: (i) an attacker extracting the initial noise and generating a novel image with the same pattern; (ii) an attacker inserting an unrelated (potentially harmful) object into a watermarked image, possibly while preserving the watermark. We empirically validate our method's increased robustness to these attacks. Taken together, our results suggest that content-aware watermarks can mitigate risks arising from image-generative models.

R. Teal Witter, Yurong Liu, Christopher Musco

With origins in game theory, probabilistic values like Shapley values, Banzhaf values, and semi-values have emerged as a central tool in explainable AI. They are used for feature attribution, data attribution, data valuation, and more. Since all of these values require exponential time to compute exactly, research has focused on efficient approximation methods using two techniques: Monte Carlo sampling and linear regression formulations. In this work, we present a new way of combining both of these techniques. Our approach is more flexible than prior algorithms, allowing for linear regression to be replaced with any function family whose probabilistic values can be computed efficiently. This allows us to harness the accuracy of tree-based models like XGBoost, while still producing unbiased estimates. From experiments across eight datasets, we find that our methods give state-of-the-art performance for estimating probabilistic values. For Shapley values, the error of our methods can be $6.5\times$ lower than Permutation SHAP (the most popular Monte Carlo method), $3.8\times$ lower than Kernel SHAP (the most popular linear regression method), and $2.6\times$ lower than Leverage SHAP (the prior state-of-the-art Shapley value estimator). For more general probabilistic values, we can obtain error $215\times$ lower than the best estimator from prior work.

Fabian Fumagalli, Landon Butler, Justin Singh Kang et al.

The Shapley value is a ubiquitous framework for attribution in machine learning, encompassing feature importance, data valuation, and causal inference. However, its exact computation is generally intractable, necessitating efficient approximation methods. While the most effective and popular estimators leverage the paired sampling heuristic to reduce estimation error, the theoretical mechanism driving this improvement has remained opaque. In this work, we provide an elegant and fundamental justification for paired sampling: we prove that the Shapley value depends exclusively on the odd component of the set function, and that paired sampling orthogonalizes the regression objective to filter out the irrelevant even component. Leveraging this insight, we propose OddSHAP, a novel consistent estimator that performs polynomial regression solely on the odd subspace. By utilizing the Fourier basis to isolate this subspace and employing a proxy model to identify high-impact interactions, OddSHAP overcomes the combinatorial explosion of higher-order approximations. Through an extensive benchmark evaluation, we find that OddSHAP achieves state-of-the-art estimation accuracy.

Shingo Kodama, Haya Diwan, Lucas Rosenblatt et al.

The rapid spread of text generated by large language models (LLMs) makes it increasingly difficult to distinguish authentic human writing from machine output. Watermarking offers a promising solution: model owners can embed an imperceptible signal into generated text, marking its origin. Most leading approaches seed an LLM's next-token sampling with a pseudo-random key that can later be recovered to identify the text as machine-generated, while only minimally altering the model's output distribution. However, these methods suffer from two related issues: (i) watermarks are brittle to simple surface-level edits such as paraphrasing or reordering; and (ii) adversaries can append unrelated, potentially harmful text that inherits the watermark, risking reputational damage to model owners. To address these issues, we introduce SimKey, a semantic key module that strengthens watermark robustness by tying key generation to the meaning of prior context. SimKey uses locality-sensitive hashing over semantic embeddings to ensure that paraphrased text yields the same watermark key, while unrelated or semantically shifted text produces a different one. Integrated with state-of-the-art watermarking schemes, SimKey improves watermark robustness to paraphrasing and translation while preventing harmful content from false attribution, establishing semantic-aware keying as a practical and extensible watermarking direction.