Omar Swelam

Sathya Kamesh Bhethanabhotla, Omar Swelam, Julien Siems et al.

This paper introduces Mamba4Cast, a zero-shot foundation model for time series forecasting. Based on the Mamba architecture and inspired by Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFNs), Mamba4Cast generalizes robustly across diverse time series tasks without the need for dataset specific fine-tuning. Mamba4Cast's key innovation lies in its ability to achieve strong zero-shot performance on real-world datasets while having much lower inference times than time series foundation models based on the transformer architecture. Trained solely on synthetic data, the model generates forecasts for entire horizons in a single pass, outpacing traditional auto-regressive approaches. Our experiments show that Mamba4Cast performs competitively against other state-of-the-art foundation models in various data sets while scaling significantly better with the prediction length. The source code can be accessed at https://github.com/automl/Mamba4Cast.

David Salinas, Omar Swelam, Frank Hutter

Evaluating Large Language Models (LLMs) often requires costly human annotations. To address this, LLM-based judges have been proposed, which compare the outputs of two LLMs enabling the ranking of models without human intervention. While several approaches have been proposed, many confounding factors are present between different papers. For instance the model, the prompt and other hyperparameters are typically changed at the same time making apple-to-apple comparisons challenging. In this paper, we propose to systematically analyze and tune the hyperparameters of LLM judges. To alleviate the high cost of evaluating a judge, we propose to leverage multi-objective multi-fidelity which allows to find judges that trade accuracy for cost and also significantly reduce the cost of the search. Our method identifies judges that not only outperform existing benchmarks in accuracy and cost-efficiency but also utilize open-weight models, ensuring greater accessibility and reproducibility. The code to reproduce our experiments is available at this repository https://github.com/geoalgo/judgetuning .