Ka Kin Lam

Ka Kin Lam, Bo Wang

A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and resource budgeting among the government and many industry sectors. This article introduces a novel non-parametric approach using Gaussian process regression with a natural cubic spline mean function and a spectral mixture covariance function for mortality and fertility modelling and forecasting. Unlike most of the existing approaches in demographic modelling literature, which rely on time parameters to decide the movements of the whole mortality or fertility curve shifting from one year to another over time, we consider the mortality and fertility curves from their components of all age-specific mortality and fertility rates and assume each of them following a Gaussian process over time to fit the whole curves in a discrete but intensive style. The proposed Gaussian process regression approach shows significant improvements in terms of preciseness and robustness compared to other mainstream demographic modelling approaches in the short-, mid- and long-term forecasting using the mortality and fertility data of several developed countries in our numerical experiments.

Ka Kin Lam, Bo Wang

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper introduces two new models for joint mortality modelling and forecasting multiple subpopulations in adaptations of the multivariate functional principal component analysis techniques. The first model extends the independent functional data model to a multi-population modelling setting. In the second one, we propose a novel multivariate functional principal component method for coherent modelling. Its design primarily fulfils the idea that when several subpopulation groups have similar socio-economic conditions or common biological characteristics, such close connections are expected to evolve in a non-diverging fashion. We demonstrate the proposed methods by using sex-specific mortality data. Their forecast performances are further compared with several existing models, including the independent functional data model and the Product-Ratio model, through comparisons with mortality data of ten developed countries. Our experiment results show that the first proposed model maintains a comparable forecast ability with the existing methods. In contrast, the second proposed model outperforms the first model as well as the current models in terms of forecast accuracy, in addition to several desirable properties.