Caiming Xiong

Kanchana Ranasinghe, Honglu Zhou, Yu Fang et al. · salesforce, stanford

Future motion representations, such as optical flow, offer immense value for control and generative tasks. However, forecasting generalizable spatially dense motion representations remains a key challenge, and learning such forecasting from noisy, real-world data remains relatively unexplored. We introduce FOFPred, a novel language-conditioned optical flow forecasting model featuring a unified Vision-Language Model (VLM) and Diffusion architecture. This unique combination enables strong multimodal reasoning with pixel-level generative fidelity for future motion prediction. Our model is trained on web-scale human activity data-a highly scalable but unstructured source. To extract meaningful signals from this noisy video-caption data, we employ crucial data preprocessing techniques and our unified architecture with strong image pretraining. The resulting trained model is then extended to tackle two distinct downstream tasks in control and generation. Evaluations across robotic manipulation and video generation under language-driven settings establish the cross-domain versatility of FOFPred, confirming the value of a unified VLM-Diffusion architecture and scalable learning from diverse web data for future optical flow prediction.

Yu Fang, Kanchana Ranasinghe, Le Xue et al. · salesforce, stanford

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved remarkable progress in robotic manipulation by mapping multimodal observations and instructions directly to actions. However, they typically mimic expert trajectories without predictive motion reasoning, which limits their ability to reason about what actions to take. To address this limitation, we propose joint learning with motion image diffusion, a novel strategy that enhances VLA models with motion reasoning capabilities. Our method extends the VLA architecture with a dual-head design: while the action head predicts action chunks as in vanilla VLAs, an additional motion head, implemented as a Diffusion Transformer (DiT), predicts optical-flow-based motion images that capture future dynamics. The two heads are trained jointly, enabling the shared VLM backbone to learn representations that couple robot control with motion knowledge. This joint learning builds temporally coherent and physically grounded representations without modifying the inference pathway of standard VLAs, thereby maintaining test-time latency. Experiments in both simulation and real-world environments demonstrate that joint learning with motion image diffusion improves the success rate of pi-series VLAs to 97.5% on the LIBERO benchmark and 58.0% on the RoboTwin benchmark, yielding a 23% improvement in real-world performance and validating its effectiveness in enhancing the motion reasoning capability of large-scale VLAs.

Revanth Gangi Reddy, Ye Liu, Wenting Zhao et al.

Maintaining large-scale, multilingual codebases hinges on accurately localizing issues, which requires mapping natural-language error descriptions to the relevant functions that need to be modified. However, existing ranking approaches are often Python-centric and perform a single-pass search over the codebase. This work introduces SweRank+, a framework that couples SweRankMulti, a cross-lingual code ranking tool, with SweRankAgent, an agentic search setup, for iterative, multi-turn reasoning over the code repository. SweRankMulti comprises a code embedding retriever and a listwise LLM reranker, and is trained using a carefully curated large-scale issue localization dataset spanning multiple popular programming languages. SweRankAgent adopts an agentic search loop that moves beyond single-shot localization with a memory buffer to reason and accumulate relevant localization candidates over multiple turns. Our experiments on issue localization benchmarks spanning various languages demonstrate new state-of-the-art performance with SweRankMulti, while SweRankAgent further improves localization over single-pass ranking.

Jiaxin Zhang, Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Kung-Hsiang Huang et al.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Jiaxin Zhang, Wendi Cui, Zhuohang Li et al.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in \textbf{advanced reasoning} to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in \textbf{autonomous agents} to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in \textbf{reinforcement learning} to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Jiaxin Zhang, Caiming Xiong, Chien-Sheng Wu

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.